Archives of “risk management” tag

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Method-Pyschology-Risk Management for Traders

  
  Education
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METHOD:

  1. I am a trend hunter I want a stock that has the potential to move 10-20  points in my favor.
  2. My top pivot points for trades is the 5 day EMA  (3 & 7DEMA for NF )
  3. I play the long side in bull markets primarily and the short side in bear markets primarily.
  4. I go long the top monster stocks in up trending markets.
  5. I never short a monster stock above the 50 day moving average.
  6. I short the biggest  junk stocks in down trends, the ones that are unprofitable and made major missteps with customers and investors.
  7. I like to trade with all time highs or all time lows in stocks with in striking distance.
  8. Moving averages are my best indicators.
  9. I never have targets, I let a trend run until it reverses.
  10. My watch list for longs is the Investor’s Business Daily IBD50.
  11. I use Darvas Boxes at times to trade stocks.

PSYCHOLOGY:

  1. I am not trying to prove anything about myself I am only trying to make money.
  2. I will quickly admit when I am wrong when a stock moves against me enough to show me I am wrong.
  3. I trade my own method, I do not trade others advice.
  4. If I am losing and very unconformable with a trade I get out of it.
  5. I trade position sizes I am mentally comfortable with.
  6. I do not try to predict the future I look for what the chart is telling me.
  7. I trade the chart not my personal opinions.
  8. I am not afraid to chase a trending stock.
  9. I understand that I chose my entries, exits, risk, and position size and the market chooses when I am profitable.
  10. I do not worry about losing money I worry about losing my trading discipline.
  11. I have faith in myself and my method.
  12. I do not blame myself for losses.
  13. I do not blame myself for losses where I followed my rules.

RISK MANAGEMENT:

  1. I attempt to never lose more than X % of my total capital on any one trade.
  2. I NEVER add to a losing trade.
  3. I use trailing stops to get out of winning trades.
  4. I use mental stop losses to get out of losing trades.
  5. I use position size to limit my risk.
  6. I use stock options to limit my risk.
  7. I know my biggest advantage in trading is small losses and big profits.
  8. I never expose more than X % of my capital to risk at any one time.
  9. I understand the market environment I am trading in.
  10. I understand the volatility of the stock I am trading.

You Are Having Trading Skill or You are Lucky ?

  
  Education
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Traders with skill have large gains after 100 trades and are relatively quiet, traders that were lucky have huge gains after a few trades and are very loud, then very quiet for the next few trades that usually bring their account to zero.

Traders with skill risk 1% to 2% of their trading capital per trade and win in the long term, traders that are just lucky risk the majority of their account for a few big wins in the short term but lose in the long term when their luck runs out.

Traders with skill use a successful method with many stocks in different markets, traders with just luck are only successful with one stock and when its up trend ends their winning streak ends.

Traders with skill have winning track records over many years, traders with only luck only have winning track records measured in months.

Traders with skill have risk management as a top priority, traders with only luck do not understand why risk management is important, yet.

Traders with skill are trading like it is a business, traders operating with luck are trading like they are a gambler in a casino.

Traders with skill use a trading plan and back tested method, traders with luck make guesses and are sometimes right.

Traders with skill have done their homework, traders with luck think they are naturally smarter than the market.

Traders with skill are disciplined and stick to their system, traders with luck make bets based on opinions.

Would you rather be lucky for a few trades or skillful for a few years? Lucky traders give back their profits when their luck runs out. Skillful traders are eventually financially interdependent due to their long term capital growth.

The Universal Principles of Successful Trading

  
  Education
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A book review for Brent Penfold’s book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading: Essential Knowledge for All Traders in All Markets”

This book is excellent for traders that are ready to accept its lessons. You need a foundation in trading to understand the importance of what the book is advising and take the principles seriously with an open mind. Once you are through the rainbow and butterfly phase of trading and realize that you will not be a millionaire in a year, this book will help you get focused and get serious about your trading and what really works.

Here are the six universal principles of successful traders:

1). Preparation

Author Brent Penfold is in the minority believing risk management is the #1 priority in trading. Brent believes that once you get your trading system and position size in place you must use the amount you will risk on each trade to determine your risk of ruin. The book shows exactly how to figure this out using Excel. His point is that if your risk of ruin is not zero then you will eventually blow out your account. Risking 1% to 2% of your capital in any one trade usually gives you a zero percent risk of ruin but it also depends on your systems win/loss ratio. But the point is to test any system with a minimum of 30 trades first then determine your risk of ruin. I would advise a larger sample size in multiple market environments a trend following system that looks brilliant in a trending market may result in a 50% draw down in a choppy or range bound market. (more…)

A Traders number 1 JOB is…..

  
  Education
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A trader’s number one job is NOT:

  1. Stock Picking
  2. Chart Reading
  3. Trend Following
  4. Entries
  5. Exits
  6. Understanding the market environment
  7. Managing Emotions
  8. Managing Ego
  9. A Robust Method
  10. Or even Discipline

A traders #1 job is to be a great risk manager. (more…)

Conviction, Anxiety and Belief

  
Analysis, Education
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In 1952 Harry Markowitz effectively founded modern finance with his seminal paper “Portfolio Selection“. The famous (or infamous) CAPM and Efficient Markets Hypothesis, for all practical purposes, evolved from the Nobel winning ideas in this paper. (Note to self: resist urge to make Nobel joke). Ironically however virtually no one knows that Markowitz himself said his paper began with step 2! Step one was deciding what you believe.

We hear a lot from the well known trading coaches about conviction and it strikes me as funny because conventional risk wisdom says “don’t get married to an idea”, “let the market tell you”, “take what the market gives” and other such axioms all based on the idea of maintaining objectivity and essentially not becoming full of conviction.

Well which is it?

I mean we also hear “believe in yourself” but where do these advisories leave you when a trading idea is going wrong? How do you handle the teeter totter that holds belief and conviction on one side and price and risk management on the other? What fulcrum can you depend on?

We of course have our answer…but before we talk any more about it, we would REALLY like hear yours!

10 Attributes Exceptional Traders possess

  
  Education
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  1. A persistent unquenchable motivation to compete and achieve personal stock market mastery
  2. A personally developed hands-on strategy in writing that fits your personality.
  3. The ability to be brutally honest and objective about your beliefs and weaknesses.
  4. An inner resiliency to weather all market storms with little emotional scar tissue.
  5. Well-defined risk management rules and an ability to accept responsibility for losses.
  6. Unassailable confidence in your system and yourself.
  7. Discipline to follow your methodology and act decisively.
  8. A strong ethic for working hard but also working smart.
  9. Patience and an ability to wait for high probability trades to materialize.
  10. A willingness to embrace change, to modify your thinking, to rewrite your methodology and transform yourself.

Ten Trading Paradoxes

  
  Education
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  1. The less I trade the more money I make.
  2. All my biggest profits were made on option contracts I bought not ones I sold.
  3. My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
  4. The best traders in history were the best risk managers not the best at entries and exits.
  5. The ability to admit you are wrong about a trade and get out is more important than being confident in a wining trade and staying in no matter what.
  6. Winning traders think like a casino losing traders think like gamblers.
  7. Opinions, projections, and predictions are worthless, trade the price action.
  8. At times fundamentals are good helpers to a trader but they are always terrible masters.
  9. Only date trading vehicles but marry your risk management and positive mind set.
  10. The smaller and more focused my watch list the better I trade what is on my watch list.

Why is self efficacy important

  
  Education
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Life does not come with a neatly designed manual.No one gives you a manual on trading when you start. You have to figure out things on your own.
Traders spend so much time moaning about lack of good training resources or programs. Or claiming this does not work, that does not work. Many of these issues are related to self efficacy.
When I did bulk of my work on Market Breadth there was no book on market breadth. I got the same help manual that you get with Telechart when I started using Telechart. In fact when I did bulk of my work on designing my trading methods, Internet was not such a big source of information.Life is much easier now, you can find so much information for fraction of effort and cost. Same thing that I figured out you can also figure out if you spend sufficient time going in to depth and peeling the layers.
That is the story of every successful independent traders. They figured out the market on their own.

This is where self efficacy becomes very critical. If you have strong perceived sense of self efficacy, you would spend your time and energy on finding solutions to your ignorance problems and overcoming inhibitors.
People with strong sense of self efficacy never have inertia problem. They have intrinsic motivation.
 
See my earlier post on “Three most common problem faced by traders”
The three most common problems when it comes to trading profitably are:

  1. Ignorance
  2. Inhibitors
  3. Inertia

Ignorance problems can be solved by acquiring knowledge. These are easiest problems to fix. If I don’t understand something, I need a strategy to overcome my ignorance. It might be reading, attending courses/training program, researching .

For example many users of Telechart do not know how to use many functionality. That is easily fixable problem.Same is true of say IBD methodology. Many people are ignorant of how say EPS or RS rating is calculated. People of ignorant of momentum or risk management or growth investing.

If you overcome your ignorance problem, you might encounter next set of problem.

Inhibitors are things which inhibit us from acting on our knowledge. I know IBD 200 works and how it works and it can be profitable, but I do not have time to input the 200 stocks. Or I know how I can make money trading Double Trouble, but i do not have software to do this for me.

All inhibitors kind of problem require innovation . A little innovation and resourcefulness can solve most inhibitors kind of issues. If A route or scan does not work, you find B route or plan B. When faced with constrains, you have to innovate.

If you are motivated enough trader, you will find solving the ignorance and inhibitors problem is not very difficult. The third set of problem is the most difficult to solve.

Inertia is lack of action on what we know and inability to act on overcoming inhibitors. Inertia makes most people stick to their current orbit of success or performance. You can spend years living suboptimal life and wasting your potential if inertia is your problem.

Inertia problems have one simple solution. A kick in the ass.

 
To overcome all three you need to have higher perceived self efficacy. If you have that then you will find several ways to overcome your ignorance problem. If you have that you will innovate around the inhibitors and if you have that motivation will not be a problem.
The concept of self efficacy is applicable not only to trading but to everything else in your life and career. You will see same thing in organisation, the vast majority is waiting for “the manual”, “the instructions”, “the rules” , “the holy grail” and so on. Few people in any organisation will have the self efficacy to figure out many of the things themselves and they will be the real leaders.
 
The concept of self efficacy is very critical if you have kids and you want them to be successful in life. Much of the school system and learning tools used are not geared to developing self efficacy. Plus parents are so indulgent that they hinder self efficacy development. Kids get rewarded for little efforts.

Importance of money management

  
  Education
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In Jack Schwager’s book Market Wizards, Schwager interviewed some of the world’s top traders and investors, nearly all of whom emphasised the importance of money management. Here are a few of my favourite excerpts:

‘Risk management is the most important thing to be well understood. Undertrade, undertrade, undertrade is my second piece of advice.Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it at least in half. ’-Bruce Kovner

‘Never risk more than 1% of your total equity in any one trade. By risking 1%, I am indifferent to any individual trade. Keeping your risk small and constant is absolutely critical.’ –Larry Hite

‘You have to minimize your losses and try to preserve capital for those very few instances where you can make a lot in a very short period of time. What you can’t afford to do is throw away your capital on suboptimal trades.’ –Richard Dennis

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