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Top 3 Trading Strategies

  
  Education
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3 Strategy1. High probability setups with short profit targets

If you are not winning more than 75% of the time you’ll never make it as a professional trader. Whilst there are other components to success, he does make a very good point. The most common trading strategy employed by successful trader is to identify a high probability set up and couple that with an aggressive profit exit strategy that captures short term gains. For example, you might have a entry criteria that easily captures 15 points on average but you set your profit target at 6 points.

2. Adding to winning positions

Many people think all trades should lead to profit but you’ll find the most successful medium term traders on win 40-55% of the time. The difference between an amateur and a professional, when trading short to medium term trading systems, is their ability to maximum their cash on a trade when it’s winning. The Turtles, under the watchful eye o f Richard Dennis and Bill Eckardt, had a way to add to their huge winners up to 4 times. Very powerful. In order to maximize this strategy you will need to identify your R multiples which will be saved for another article.

3. Mechanical trailing profit stops

Knowing when to take profits can be the most mentally draining part of any trading system. Its not unusual to start trying to let profits run that the markets starts retracing and wiping out all your open profits. The way to overcome this emotional rollercoaster is to build mechanical trailing stops that maximize your profits on winning trades whilst minimizing giving back to much in open profits. (more…)

5-False Beliefs About Trading the Markets

  
  Education
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1) What goes up must come down and vice versa.

That’s Newton’s law, not the law of trading. And even if the market does eventully self-correct, you have no idea when it will happen. In short, there’s no point blowing up your account fighthing the tape.

2) You have to be smart to make money.

No, what you have to be is disciplined. If you want to be smart, write a book or teach at a university. If you want to make money, listen to what the market is telling you and trade to make money — not to be “right.”

3) Making money is hard.

Nope. Sorry. Making money is actually easy. Statistically, you’re going to do it about half the time. Keeping it, now that’s the hard part.

4) I have to have a high winning percentage to be profitable.

Not true. How often you are right on a trade is only half of the equation. The other half is how much do you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. You can remember that with this formula:

Probability (odds of it going up or down) x Magnitude (how much it goes up or down) = Profitability

5) To be successful, I have to trade without emotions.

That is both wrong and impossible. You are human so you have emotions. Emotions can be a powerful motivator to your trading.

When you feel angry or scared in trading, take that emotion and translate it into something more productive. For example, if you’re feeling angry because you just got run over by the market, view that anger as a reason to be more focused and disciplined in your entry and exit levels on the next trade.

Desire and Fear in Trading

  
  Education
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Desire and fear alternate in the minds of traders as they go through the day.  But let me ask you whether desire or fear dominates your thoughts and feelings as you trade? 

For many traders the primary emotion is fear.  They fear loss: losing profits, losing money, losing equity and even their margin.  Some fear losing their touch, their feel for the market, their focus, their luck, the respect of their boss, colleagues, or mate, or worse, their own self esteem.

Other traders are flooded with the emotion of desire.  They look forward to what the day will produce.  They like the thrill of the chase.  They have a sense of unlimited potential and abundant opportunities for profit.  They anticipate improving their skills, intuition, and understanding as they go through the trading day and week.

Keep in mind that desire is not greed.  Greed is an inordinate wanting.  It is excessive desire and comes from a sense of scarcity, a feeling that there is not and will not be enough.  Desire is healthy: greed is unhealthy.

What you feel depends upon your mental focus.  Do you place your conscious and unconscious attention on the possibility of loss or the probability (hopefully) of gain?

What you hold in your conscious attention colors your reality and becomes the quality and fabric of your life and trading. In your life, do you look for what’s missing, or do you pay attention to what you have and can create?  Do you think about terrible things that have happened and could happen again, or do you think about wonderful experiences you’ve had and expect even better things ahead?  Trading is a microcosm of life.  What you do in life, you’ll do in trading.

You can through conscious volition change your focus from loss to gain.  You can imagine failure or success.  You can anticipate improving your skills and understanding, or you can worry about getting even worse. (more…)

Five Rules of Wealthy Traders

  
  Education
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1.  Wealthy traders PLAN EVERY SINGLE TRADE. “In simple terms [wealthy traders] know exactly what they want to pay, how much money they anticipate making (or losing) and a very clear idea on the probability of the trade working out.”

2.  Wealthy traders STOPPED TRYING TO PICK TOPS AND BOTTOMS years ago.  “Simply put, 95% of the traders out there that make money are buying higher highs and selling lower lows. [Wealthy traders] do the exact opposite of nearly everyone out there because they found out long ago that picking tops and bottoms is a sucker’s bet.”

3.  Wealthy traders are PATIENT WITH WINNERS and RIDICULOUSLY IMPATIENT WITH LOSERS. “Most traders have a great deal of patience with their losers but get nervous about locking in gains and sell them to quickly – the exact opposite of what wealthy traders do.”

4.  Wealthy traders TRADE ONE MARKET. “Focus on trading one market exceptionally well rather than try to trade whatever’s hot – that’s how wealthy traders do it.”

5.  Wealthy traders gauge success on ANYTHING BUT MONEY. “The growing trading account simply becomes a nice result – a side benefit if you will – of making good decisions and reading the market well.”

The need to be Right

  
  Education
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right_wrongGood trading is not about being right, it is about making money.   If you trade to be right you are most likely trading too often in order to 1) impress someone other than yourself, and 2) feed your ego.  If this is your problem it mostly stems from a failure to focus on your trading plan, if you have one.  If you don’t then you are really heading for disaster.  Sticking to a well thought out plan of action based on a high probability trading edge will keep you from making frequent, unnecessary trades.  This is where the professionals pull way ahead of the masses.  The professionals wait for the market to come to them instead

10 Trading Quotes

  
  Education
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“Good investing is a peculiar balance between the conviction to follow your ideas and the flexibility to recognize when you have made a mistake.“ –Michael Steinhardt

Do not stay bullish or bearish go with the current flow of the market>

“There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.”-Jesse Livermore

Putting it all together, it is more than just numbers>

“Successful trading depends on the 3M`s – Mind, Method and Money. Beginners focus on analysis, but professionals operate in a three dimensional space. They are aware of trading psychology their own feelings and the mass psychology of the markets. Each trader needs to have a method for choosing specific stocks, options or futures as well as firm rules for pulling the trigger – deciding when to buy and sell. Money refers to how you manage your trading capital.” – Alexander Elder

The money is in the primary market trend, not jumping in and out>

“I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realised at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements-that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.” – Jesse Livermore

This is one of the best ways i Know to measure short term trends, and be on the right side of the primary moves>

“The 10 day exponential moving average (EMA) is my favourite indicator to determine the major trend. I call this “red light, green light” because it is imperative in trading to remain on the correct side of moving average to give yourself the best probability of sucess. When you are trading above the 10 day, you have the green light, the market is in positive mode and you should be thinking buy. Conversely, trading below the average is a red light. The market is in a negative mode and you should be thinking sell.” – Marty Schwartz

Why it is so important to let your winners run and cut your losers short>

“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you‘re wrong.” -George Soros

Eliminating the risk of ruin in one easy step>

By risking 1%, I am indifferent to any individual trade. Keeping your risk small and constant is absolutely critical.” Larry Hite.

Never add to a losing position becasue you are fighting the trend>

“Losers average losers.” this was posted in Paul Tudor Jones’ Office

This is successful stock trading summarized>

“My basic philosophy is: Expose your portfolio to the best stocks that the market has to offer and cut your losses very quickly when you’re wrong. That one sentence essentially describes my strategy.” – Mark Minervini

Trend Trading in a nut shell>

“It is always the best discretion to let the market show us where it is going and just simply follow (this would be prudent), rather than predict where the market is going and place a position (this would be gambling).” -Anne-Marie Baiynd

The Complete Turtletrader by Michael Covel

  
  Education
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Book summary:

The famous turtle program was the fruit of the debate between Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt, on the issue of whether traders are can be nurtured. Dennis believed it can but Eckhardt thought otherwise. Hence, they decided to make a bet by recruiting people from diverse background and most without experience. The book covered the entire story of the turltes, from the beginning of the program to what happened after the program. Instead of summarizing the process of how the turtles were hired etc, I will only focus on the information and attributes that makes one a good trader which I picked up from the book. In addition, I will introduce the turtle trading method.

What makes a successful trader?

Courageous probability trader

A successful trader thinks in terms of odds and always enjoys playing the game of chance. He or she will experience losses but must be able to hold the nerves and keep trading like they have yet lost. Richard Dennis was $10mil down in a single day but was able to finish off with a $80mil profit for the year. Something that makes “mere mortals lose sleep”. It was said that great traders like Dennis, process information differently from majority of the investors. He does not take conventional wisdom for granted or accept anything at face value. “He knew that traders had a tendency to self-destruct. The battle with self was where he focused his energies.” During the interviews with the potential turtles, one of the abilities he was looking for was “to suspend your belief in reality”.

“Great training alone was not enough to win for the long run. In the end, a persistent drive for winning combined with a healthy dose of courage would be mandatory for Dennis’s students’ long-term survival.”

Eckhardt emphasized that they are not mean reversion traders who believe the market will always return to the mean or fluctuate around the mean. Dennis and co. believe the market trends and often come unexpected, which also means the payout will be very rewarding.

Emotionless and disciplined

Dennis taught the turtles not to think trading in terms of money so they can detach themselves from it and no matter what their account size, they would still be able to make the correct trading decisions.

The turtles were taught to be trend followers where they used a system of rules to tell them the bet size, entry and exit points. Rules “worked best” as they eliminate human judgements which do not work well in the market. That being said, even if rules are followed religiously, traders are not expected to be right all the time and it is crucial that they cut their losses and move on when they are wrong. It is important to make every trade a good trade rather than a profitable trade. As long as good trades are made, profits will come in the long run. (more…)

Aiming for the Right Target in Trading

  
  Education
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When trading goes right, it can be a great feeling. When trading goes wrong it can be a nightmare. Fortunes are made in a matter of weeks and lost in a matter of minutes. This pattern repeats itself as each new generation of traders hit the market. They hurl themselves out of the night like insane insects against some sort of karmic bug-light; all thought and all existence extinguished in one final cosmic “zzzzzzt”. Obviously, for a trader to be successful he must acknowledge this pattern and then break it. This can be accomplished by asking the right questions and finding the correct answers by rational observation and logical conclusion.

This article will attempt to address one question:

“What is the difference between a winning trader and a losing trader?”

What follows are eleven observations and conclusions that I use in my own trading to help keep me on the right track. You can put these ideas into table form, and use them as a template to determine the probability of a trader being successful.

OBSERVATION #1

The greatest number of losing traders is found in the short-term and intraday ranks. This has less to do with the time frame and more to do with the fact that many of these traders lack proper preparation and a well thought-out game plan. By trading in the time frame most unforgiving of even minute error and most vulnerable to floor manipulation and general costs of trading, losses due to lack of knowledge and lack of preparedness are exponential. These traders are often undercapitalized as well. Winning traders often trade in mid-term to long-term time frames. Often they carry greater initial levels of equity as well.

CONCLUSION:

Trading in mid-term and long-term time frames offers greater probability of success from a statistical point of view. The same can be said for level of capitalization. The greater the initial equity, the greater the probability of survival.

OBSERVATION #2

Losing traders often use complex systems or methodologies or rely entirely on outside recommendations from gurus or black boxes. Winning traders often use very simple techniques. Invariably they use either a highly modified version of an existing technique or else they have invented their own.

CONCLUSION

This seems to fit in with the mistaken belief that “complex” is synonymous with “better”. Such is not necessarily the case. Logically one could argue that simplistic market approaches tend to be more practical and less prone to false interpretation. In truth, even the terms “simple” or “complex” have no relevance. All that really matters is what makes money and what doesn’t. From the observations, we might also conclude that maintaining a major stake in the trading process via our own thoughts and analyses is important to being successful as a trader. This may also explain why a trader who possesses no other qualities than patience and persistence often outperforms those with advanced education, superior intellect or even true genius.

OBSERVATION #3

Losing traders often rely heavily on computer-generated systems and indicators. They do not take the time to study the mathematical construction of such tools nor do they consider variable usage other than the most popular interpretation. Winning traders often take advantage of the use of computers because of their speed in analyzing large amounts of data and many markets. However, they also tend to be accomplished chartists who are quite happy to sit down with a paper chart, a pencil, protractor and calculator. Very often you will find that they have taken the time to learn the actual mathematical construction of averages and oscillators and can construct them manually if need be. They have taken the time to understand the mechanics of market machinery right down to the last nut and bolt.

CONCLUSION:

If you want to be successful at anything, you need to have a strong understanding of the tools involved. Using a hammer to drive a nut in to a threaded hole might work, but it isn’t pretty or practical.

OBSERVATION #4

Losing traders spend a great deal of time forecasting where the market will be tomorrow. Winning traders spend most of their time thinking about how traders will react to what the market is doing now, and they plan their strategy accordingly.

CONCLUSION:

Success of a trade is much more likely to occur if a trader can predict what type of crowd reaction a particular market event will incur. Being able to respond to irrational buying or selling with a rational and well thought out plan of attack will always increase your probability of success. It can also be concluded that being a successful trader is easier than being a successful analyst since analysts must in effect forecast ultimate outcome and project ultimate profit. If one were to ask a successful trader where he thought a particular market was going to be tomorrow, the most likely response would be a shrug of the shoulders and a simple comment that he would follow the market wherever it wanted to go. By the time we have reached the end of our observations and conclusions, what may have seemed like a rather inane response may be reconsidered as a very prescient view of the market. (more…)

False Beliefs About Trading the Markets

  
  Education
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1) What goes up must come down and vice versa.

That’s Newton’s law, not the law of trading. And even if the market does eventully self-correct, you have no idea when it will happen. In short, there’s no point blowing up your account fighthing the tape.

2) You have to be smart to make money.

No, what you have to be is disciplined. If you want to be smart, write a book or teach at a university. If you want to make money, listen to what the market is telling you and trade to make money — not to be “right.”

3) Making money is hard.

Nope. Sorry. Making money is actually easy. Statistically, you’re going to do it about half the time. Keeping it, now that’s the hard part. (more…)

The obstacles of the day trader are:

  
  Education
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The obstacles of the day trader are:

Fear – Fear causes the day trader to hesitate and freeze when positions should be entered and exited. Fear can also cause day traders to take losses,

 Doubt – Doubt causes great opportunity to be missed and causes a mind to be scattered and without firm direction.

Greed – Greed will cause day traders to hold onto positions too long often causing profit to turn into loss.

Hope – Hope will cloud the eyes of probability. Hope is not for day traders.

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