Archives of “probability” tag

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The Wit and Wisdom of Mark Douglas

  
  Education
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TRADINGINZONE

“I know it may sound strange to many readers, but there is an inverse relationship between analysis and trading results. More analysis or being able to make distinctions in the market’s behavior will not produce better trading results. There are many traders who find themselves caught in this exasperating loop, thinking that more or better analysis is going to give them the confidence they need to do what needs to be done to achieve success. It’s what I call a trading paradox that most traders find difficult, if not impossible to reconcile, until they realise you can’t use analysis to overcome fear of being wrong or losing money. It just doesn’t work!”

“If you really believe in an uncertain outcome, then you also have to expect that virtually anything can happen. Otherwise, the moment you let your mind hold onto the notion that you know, you stop taking all of the unknown variables into consideration. Your mind won’t let you have it both ways. If you believe you know something, the moment is no longer unique.”

“There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that defines an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like “right” and “wrong” or “win” and “lose” no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.” (more…)

Amazing Video Shows How Beautifully Math Translates Into Life

  
Education, Video
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Mathematics has changed the course of human history countless times. It’s easy to forget how much of what we see every day can be described by a series of symbols and relationships.

A video titled “Beauty of Mathematics”from Yann Pineill and Nicolas Lefaucheux shows exactly how true that is. On the left, you see the equation itself, in the middle, a diagram of what’s happening in real time, and on the right, how things look in the real world.

It shows how math reveals everything from the very simple – like how probability determines how likely it is that you’ll roll a two and a four during a game of backgammon.

 Mathematics can derive the equations of motion that can model a spinning top – how fast it needs to go, and the topping point for when it will wobble out of control:

The video opens with a quote from Bertrand Russell that just about sums things up:
“Mathematics, rightly viewed, possesses not only truth, but supreme beauty – a beauty cold and austere, without the gorgeous trappings of painting or music.”
 
 

The Probability of Self-awareness

  
  Education
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With 20 years of trying different things and hearing from others I made an important discovery that has shaped me as a trader and a coach.  What I found is that more people will improve using an approach to change that emphasizes expanding self-awareness and emotional intelligence.

(With so many different approaches advertised as a ‘change process’, I think its important to share what I’ve found to work. That’s really what we have to do, right?  Doing more of what works and less of what doesn’t.)

Very briefly, what I mean by expanded self-awareness is:

1) the recognition that our thinking and our emotions are intertwined and both influence our perception and judgment that leads to our decisions and actions (this view also happens to be consistent what the leading brain scientists are now saying)

2) much of our motivation – the intertwined thinking/emotion that drives our behavior – is actually subconscious, e.g. we assume we are trading the market but on other levels we are also trading our P&L and our feelings about our P&L  (and what our P&L represents to us) is just one example. (more…)

Bend your will to focus on the war

  
  Education
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bendyourwill

  • 1) Allow yourself to enjoy the victories. Traders have a tendency to get very upset about busted trades and in so doing burn memories strongly in their minds. The same traders get little satisfaction from the good trades, thus not burning as strong a memory. If you have done your homework, followed your rules, entered and exited the trade as planned, then give yourself credit and enjoy it. You deserve it.  
  • 2) Take control of your beliefs. Successful traders are realistic about trading when accepting the fact that trading is a game of probabilities. Successful traders believe in probabilities and in so doing know that with each trade there is a higher probability the trade will work than not. How do they know this? Because they have tested and traded their set up(s) enough times to know that the odds are in their favor. However, the successful traders also know that favorable odds do not guarantee success 100% of the time. Successful traders believe with each trade that the odds are in their favor but they also believe that the trade will not always work. By knowing this successful traders will be able to enter every trade with a clear mind open to the fact that anything can happen NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENED ON THE LAST TRADE! If you believe this then you will never focus on the last trade, only on the present one.

 You cannot live in the past so there is no need to trade in it either.  Just as every day is a new one so is every trade.  Focus on the present battle and in war you will be victorious!!

17 One Liners for Traders

  
  Education
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Trade the market, not the money
• Always trade value, never trade price
• The answer to the question, “What’s the trend?” is the question, “What’s your timeframe?”
• Never allow a statistically significant unrealized gain to turn into a statistically significant realized loss (ATR)
• Don’t tug at green shoots
• When there’s nothing to do, do nothing
• Stop adjustments can only be used to reduce risk, not increase it.
• There are only two kinds of losses: big losses and small losses, given these choices – always choose small losses.
•  Don’t Anticipate, Just Participate
• Buy the strongest, sell the weakest (RSI)
• Sideways markets eventually resolve themselves into trending markets and vice versa
• Stagger entries & exits – Regret Minimization techniques
• Look for low risk, high reward, high probability setups
• Correlations are for defense, not offense
• Drawdowns are for underleveraged trading and research
• Develop systems based on the kinds of “pain” (weaknesses) endured when they aren’t working or you’ll abandon them during drawdowns.
• Be disciplined in risk management & flexible in perceiving market behavior

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