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MARKET WISDOM

  
  Education
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A list of golden sayings and rules I have gleaned from many sources:
wisdom-thought

  • Plan your trades, trade your plan.
  • Trade Quality, Not Quantity.
  • Keep it simple.
  • Don’t look for a reason to enter the market, look for a reason NOT to enter.
  • Don’t act due to “Newbie Nerves”
  • Don’t make up a trade. If you have to look, it isn’t there.
  • Never play with scared money.
  • You are not the market.
  • Buy dips in an uptrend, sell rallies in a downtrend.
  • Do not try to pick tops and bottoms.
  • It is only divergence if it came off a retracement – not a sideways market.
  • Indicators warn, price action confirms.
  • Divergence is early, cross-overs are late.
  • You cannot expect your positions to go immediately into the money.
  • Divergence means a detour, but not necessarily a new trend.
  • No-one knows what will happen in the markets.
  • Standing aside is a position.
  • Subordinate your will to the will of the market.
  • Large ranges beget small ranges, small ranges beget large ranges.
  • Once a thing is set in motion, it tends to stay in motion.
  • Sniper-rifle, not a shotgun.
  • Cut your losses short, let your profits run.
  • Only move stops in the direction of your position.
  • Do not let a winner turn into a loser.
  • Never add to a losing position.
  • Forget losses quickly. Forget profits even quicker.
  • Consistent behavior equals consistent results.

There are probably more, send ’em in…

Characteristics of Successful Traders

  
  Education
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successfultraders

1. CONFIDENCE: absolutely essential in an environment that feeds on emotional    instability.

2. TRUST: if you cannot trust yourself who can you trust? Trust your rules, trust your edge, trust that you will do the right thing-no matter what!

3. FOCUS: you will never learn all there is to learn about the market.  Push your ego aside and focus on one market and one edge.

4.  ACCEPTANCE:  you have to accept what the market is willing to give or you will give the market what it wants to take. (more…)

Warren Buffett: How I Choose The Next Person To Run Berkshire Hathaway

  
Analysis, Education
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“Four years ago, I told you that we needed to add one or more younger investment managers to carry on when Charlie, Lou and I weren’t around. At that time we had multiple outstanding candidates immediately available for my CEO job (as we do now), but we did not have backup in the investment area.

It’s easy to identify many investment managers with great recent records. But past results, though important, do not suffice when prospective performance is being judged. How the record has been achieved is crucial, as is the manager’s understanding of – and sensitivity to – risk (which in no way should be measured by beta, the choice of too many academics). In respect to the risk criterion, we were looking for someone with a hard-to-evaluate skill: the ability to anticipate the effects of economic scenarios not previously observed. Finally, we wanted someone who would regard working for Berkshire as far more than a job.

When Charlie and I met Todd Combs, we knew he fit our requirements. Todd, as was the case with Lou, will be paid a salary plus a contingent payment based on his performance relative to the S&P. We have arrangements in place for deferrals and carryforwards that will prevent see-saw performance being met by undeserved payments. The hedge-fund world has witnessed some terrible behavior by general partners who have received huge payouts on the upside and who then, when bad results occurred, have walked away rich, with their limited partners losing back their earlier gains. Sometimes these same general partners thereafter quickly started another fund so that they could immediately participate in future profits without having to overcome their past losses. Investors who put money with such managers should be labeled patsies, not partners. (more…)

Being Consistent

  
  Education
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Successful traders know that success means consistency, more than it means immediate profits. Of course traders want to make money, but to do that consistently, you may have to learn by dealing with setbacks and unimpressive gains. The trick is not only to make money off of trades but to learn WHY you made that money. And if you simply get lucky now and then, you haven’t learned anything you can turn into a consistent strategy of success over a career, or even a lifetime, of day trading.

That’s why successful traders bank on consistent profits. They know that ignoring the small-profit trades and angling for a “grand slam” is a sure way to lose money. No one can repeatedly predict huge gains on any one trade. But many people can and do predict a host of small-profit trades that create the same, if not more, profit than people who get extremely lucky once or twice. (more…)

Habits :Read them daily

  
  Education
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1) The market will instruct us what to do. Can we learn?
2) Participants’ humanity will cause typical price structures to arise.
3) Our primary job is risk manager…that’s why I believe in managing my resources. Most managers have too much career risk on the line. That is, they can lose more by being ‘out’ when it is perceived as a time to be ‘in’, than by losing money. The old saying “I’d rather lose half my clients than half my clients’ money” isn’t in their lexicon.
4) CASH IS A POSITION
5) The markets spend most of their time not trending
6) Multiple time frames allow more precise determination of decision-making
7) More ‘precise’ decisions may allow for smaller losses
8) The slope and direction of the 50 period moving average are telling
9) Our job is simple: make money.
10) Having a regular routine (preparation routine) is vital

Trading Wisdom from Richard D. Wyckoff

  
  Education
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“You can learn from this how to develop independent judgment, so that you need never ask anyone’s opinion or listen to anyone’s tips, or take anyone’s advice.  You can so train your judgment that you will know just what to do and when to do it.  When you are in doubt you will do nothing.” –Richard D. Wyckoff

Wyckoff was talking here about trading.  He was talking on the subject of studying the markets to determine how they operate.  You will find developing your own trading strategy/method can be the most rewarding and challenging experience of your lifetime.  You need to be comfortable with the risk, before you are comfortable with the reward.  There is an age old saying, ‘If you can’t stand the heat, then stay out of the kitchen.’

As traders, we are exposed on a daily basis to the trading concepts of risk and reward.  Personally, my own reward to risk tolerance took some time for me to feel comfortable with it.  How much do you want to risk on each trade, and how much are you looking to make at a minimum?

Are you at its minimum profit objective going to make more money than you risk?  So if you would take two trades, and one would win and the other would hit your stop loss, would you turn a small profit on your trading?  Obviously, the goal of every trader should be the three general trading rules. (more…)

Basic principles

  
  Education
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Risk management- Plan your loss before planning your profit.

Diversification- Be bullish, be bearish, be involved in various groups/markets.

Proper Position Sizing- Trade small, trade safe.

Effective Trading Plan- Make sure your plan works, and/or makes money.

Cutting Losses Short- Enter a trade that offers a small loss.

Letting Winners Run- Don’t kill your winners.

Curbing Your Emotion- This is a bi product of trading small.

Long: My rules

Short: My emotion

Update: If you took any part of this post personal, don’t. You know I am not in the business of attacking, just trying to get a message across. If I were mad, I wouldn’t have addressed it at all.. When all else fails, “Fresh Tactics.”

Reacting versus Predicting in Trading

  
  Education
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Most of the best traders I have read about and know of personally do not predict what will happen they trade what is happening. New traders always want to predict, they want to argue about their beliefs and why something must happen or will happen. Most rich traders are rich because they are flexible, they have no strong opinions and are just looking at possibilities and ready to take a set up, buy a break out or short a break down. A new trader believes that ‘conviction’ about a trade is important, holding through an adverse move is usually a bad idea, especially if a key level is reached that is showing the trader that they are wrong. A rich trader is waiting for some price level to trigger their entry then another price level to trigger their exit. A new trader is trading off a belief and has no real exit plan most the time because they are sure that they are right.

The money I have pulled out of the market over the past 10 years has come from trading price action not predicting. I have entered at high probability moments on break outs above resistance levels. I have trailed my winning trend trades with a stop and sold when the trend reversed through key short term support. When I was wrong I stopped out for a small loss, when I was right I let the winner run up for a very big win. I am always trend hunting, always taking my high probability trades, always cutting losses short, and when not seeing a great trade doing nothing and waiting.

Good Luck-Advice for Traders

  
  Education
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Always seek out differing opinions and challenge your beliefs. Except when you know you’re right, then that other bullshit just becomes a distraction. Good luck with that.

It is very important to be flexible and open-minded. But invest with set rules and an iron discipline. Good luck with that.

Technical analysis and charts only tell you about what has already happened in the past. It’s much better to use the information from the future that we have when making decisions.  Good luck with that.

Never run with the herd. It’s much better to be all alone on open ground, running in the wrong direction and wholly conspicuous to predators. Good luck with that. (more…)

Speculation and Trading vs. Gambling

  
  Education
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When does trading become gambling? There is a very thin line. I maintain that most traders ARE gamblers. They use markets as a substitute for a casino.

1. IF you enter trades without a clear trading plan, you just might be a gambler.

2. IF you trade just to be trading, you just might be a gambler.

3. IF your bored and enter a trade, you just might be a gambler.

4. IF you look at potential profit before assessing potential loses, you just might be a gambler.

5. IF you have no impulse control, you just might be a gambler.

6. IF you have no methodology, you just might be a gambler.

7. IF you rely on others for your trading decisions, you just might be a gambler.

8. IF you do not take full responsibility for your trading outcomes, you just might be a gambler.

9. IF you increase your risk due to losses, you just might be a gambler.

10. IF you do not use stop losses or do not adhere to them, you just might be a gambler.

And my all time favorite

11. IF you get an adrenaline rush when your entering trades, you just might be a gambler.

In summation I would like to say that I do enjoy casino gambling as a form of entertainment. I strive to over come the house’s edge when I do gamble. Gambling is entertainment and trading is a business and should be approached as a business enterprise. IF your using the markets as a gambling outlet, be my guest. Traders that approach trading with a positive expectancy WILL take all your money. They will send you stumbling out into the night, cross-eyed and mumbling to yourself. Be smart. You can either feed the trading gods or feed your head. Do the work and get educated before risking one thin dime. Employ laser like focus in your trading and use iron discipline. The end result can be well beyond your wildest expectation.

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