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Major Points on Schwager’s Market Wizards Interview with Michael Marcus

  
  Education
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MUST READMETHODOLOGY

Ride Your Winners – Never Get Out Unless the Trend Changed

  • One time, [Ed Seykota] was short silver and the market just kept eking down, a half penny a day, a penny a day. Everyone else seemed to be bullish, talking about why silver had to go up because it was so cheap, but Ed just stayed short. Ed said, “The trend is down, and I’m going to stay short until the trend changes.” I learned patience from him in the way he followed the trend.
  • During the great soybean bull market, the one that went from $3.25 to nearly $12, I impulsively took my profits and got out of everything. I was trying to be fancy instead of staying with the trend. Ed Seykota never would get out of anything unless the trend changed. So Ed was in, while I was out, and I watched in agony as soybeans went limit-up for twelve consecutive days. I was real competitive and every day I would come into the office knowing he was in and I was out. I dreaded going to work, because I knew soybeans would be bid limit again and I couldn’t get in.
  • If you don’t stay with your winners, you are not going to be able to pay for the losers.

Get Out When the Volatility and Momentum Become Absolutely Insane

  • One way I had of measuring that was with limit days. In those days, we used to have a lot of situations when a market would go limit-up for a number of consecutive days. On the third straight limit-up day, I would begin to be very, very cautious. I would almost always get out on the fourth limit-up day. And, if I  had somehow survived with any part of my position that long, I had a mandatory rule to get out on the fifth limit-up day. I just forced myself out of the market on that kind of volatility.

Take Note of Intraday Chart Points

  • I learned the importance of intraday chart points, such as earlier daily highs. At key intraday chart points, I could take much larger positions than I could afford to hold, and if it didn’t work immediately, I would get out quickly. For example, at a critical intraday point, I would take a twenty-contract position, instead of the three to five contracts I could afford to hold, using an extremely close stop. The market either took off and ran, or I was out. Sometimes I would make 300, 400 points or more, with only a 10-point risk.
  • Although that approach worked real well then, I don’t think it would work as well in today’s market. In those days, if the market reached an intraday chart point, it might penetrate that point, take off, and never look back. Now it often comes back. (more…)

Common Mistakes for losing Money

  
  Education
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Trading is an evolutionary process. Nobody can wake up being a Master Trader. Unfortunately there is no book or magic trick that can turn you into the highly profitable trader. Although the belief and the hope to obtain those skills instantly is still in place.

The statistics say that only the ones with the self-dedication and discipline succeed in this business.

The most common mistakes leading to losses:

-Trading against the market;

-No trade potential;

-No serious buyers or sellers in the stock;

-Wide stop-loss;

-Fear of loss.

Traders should stay calm during the trading, this helps to observe and analyze the situation on the market much better, see some small details and make a competent decision.

Panic, stress or fear, always lead to mistakes.

One of the serious problems in trading is rush and mania to be present on the market all the times, opening positions when there is no potential for a trade or where the market is either flat or going the other direction.

Tips to resolve the mistakes:

1. Always look at the market. If there is no clear picture of the market’s behavior, don’t risk your money.

2. Always look at a trade potential. If you look at the daily charts and see that the daily bars are just 20 cents long, then look for other stocks, where the potential is at least 40 cents.

3. Always look either at the Open Book or Market Maker window and Tape. If you don’t see any order flow on the Tape or the order sizes are small (less than a 1000 shares), then don’t enter the trade.

4. Always know where you are going to place you stop-loss order. If it is more than 10 cents away from your entry point, don’t enter the trade.

5. If you’re just not sure, or if the situation is uncertain, don’t enter the trade.

Following these tips requires some work and changes to our habits. It is not easy at all! We always hear sayings that the trader should be disciplined. What it actually means is changing your old habits and training yourself to have new ones. It is not comfortable, but it brings positive results, which will be noticeable on your month-end P/L report.

A Bad Teacher

  
  Education
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The World’s Worst Teacher

The market often rewards bad behavior. You exit a stock because your stop is hit. You are okay with this because you followed your plan. The market then immediately reverses. You begin to think, “If only I stayed with the position.” The next time the market goes against you, you decide you are not going to get tricked again. This time though, the market does not reverse and what started out as a small manageable loss is now huge.

The market will give you loss after loss forcing you to abandon a methodology right before it takes off without you. On the flip side, the market will lull you into a false sense of confidence. You trade larger and larger, taking on excessive risk. You print money until your risks become so excessive that one or two bad trades wipe you out.

Learn from the market, but realize that sometimes it can be a lousy instructor.

FEAR

  
  Education
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How to prevent Fear in trading ?

you have decide to trade a particular system. you get an entry signal, and put on the trade. You put in your protective stop, and you know what will be your signal or target for exit. There is nothing more to you need to do or worry about. The market will do the rest for you. You are along for the ride, and you know when to get out. So there is nothing to be fearful about …

“There is hardly anything productive about worry or fear when you cant do anything about the circumstances” by Buzz Aldrin

Fear is an emotion. It is created by us and therefore we can uncreated it. Fear is created when we think that our trade will lose a lot of money or things that will prevent our trade from losing. The keyword is think which is thoughts in our mind. When you keep on thinking of the thoughts of losing money and fearful of it. STOP!! Take a deep breath to break your connection. Then ask yourself, “Is this probable?” Continue to challenge the thought by asking, “What are the probabilities right now?” Then choose to take control of your thoughts and think term of the current probabilities.
Fear will lead you to disaster if you do not know how to release it. Another way to release fear is to have a shower to calm down yourself. (more…)

Wise

  
  Education
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Be wise* You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift.
* You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.
* You cannot help little men by tearing down big men.
* You cannot lift the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer.
* You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich.
* You cannot establish sound security on borrowed money.
* You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred.
* You cannot keep out of trouble by spending more than you earn.
* You cannot build character and courage by destroying men’s initiative and independence.
* And you cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they can and should do for themselves.

Trading Fear

  
  Education
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Ninety-five percent of the trading errors you are likely to make – causing the money to just evaporate before your very eyes – will stem from your attitudes about:

1. Being Wrong
2. Losing Money
3. Missing a Move
4. Leaving Money on the Table

You will never maximize nor optimize your ability to pull profits from the market on a consistent basis until you incorporate the correct attitude and response to each of the (4) four fears.

23 Reasons 95% Traders Don’t Make Money

  
  Education
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  1. Lack of homework on what works.
  2. Inability to manage stress.
  3. Allowing big losses in your trading account,
  4. Quitting when they learn trading isn’t easy money.
  5. Inability to trade volatile markets.
  6. Inability to emotionally  manage equity curves.
  7. Trading without a positive expectancy model.
  8. Never committing to one trading strategy.
  9. Trading based on opinions.
  10. Not managing position sizing.
  11. Not managing the risk of ruin.
  12. Over thinking their trades.
  13. Reactive trading decisions based on internalizing emotions.
  14. Trading with leverage without understanding the risks.
  15. Over trading.
  16. Trading with an account too small.
  17. Trading without a plan.
  18. Trading without stop losses.
  19. Not understanding what it takes mentally to be a trader.
  20. Setting stops in obvious places.
  21. Having only small winners.
  22. Selling short what looks expensive.
  23. A lack of discipline.

We Dare to Challenge

  
  Education
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Always Remember –The principles of successful stock speculation are based on the supposition that people will continue in the future to make the mistakes that they have made in the past.

Yes.  Its confidence in our work than any aberration.  None else in 100 crore Indians have told u about the bear onslaught, not only on Indian Exchanges but across the Globe. Check our web-site, with normal eyes or with magnifiers too. We are cautioning since Last Week about the emerging Bear-spell.

 Yesterday under the caption “Dil Se” this was our adverbatim:  Time Theory Indicates freefall could start tomorrow and heavy selling across the globe in next 4-5 sessions.  On Rise SELL-SELL-SELL is my Mantra.

You all can Click here & see the Yesterday’s written article 

Do I need to enumerate about todays “Descending Triangle Formation” that would break Nifty Futures by 250 points to 4950 levels !!!!!!

 I don’t know if the readers have at least spent 5-10 minutes to read and act upon.  But all our subscribers have minted money by following shorting-calls.  The newly enrolled members must have earned back their entire fee paid to me in single session. 

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 Others are singing:   

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Anirudh Sethi/Baroda

Traders Daily Lessons

  
  Education
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Have the courage to say no.
Have the courage to face the truth.
Have the courage to do the right thing because it is right.
– W. Clement Stone

An inner dialogue typically reinforces the way you think. So the goal is to consciously expose yourself to thoughts that ultimately will positively impact your trading. Through the use of repetition you can considerably strengthen a positive attitude and sound trading behavior. The beauty of it is the simplicity of the method. It’s entirely up to you which trading mantras you want to adhere to. Here are a few that I strongly believe in and that characterize my thinking as a trader:

  • Kill your greed
  • Isolate yourself from the opinions of others
  • Never chase stocks
  • Always strive for emotional detachment
  • Focus on proper execution
  • There is never a shortage of opportunities
  • Never make excuses
  • Stay in control
  • Don’t compare yourself to others
  • Always use stop losses
  • Standing aside is a position
  • Money comes in bunches
  • Never add to a losing position
  • Stay calm and focused
  • Don’t believe the hype
  • Cultivate independent thinking
  • Be ready for worst case scenarios
  • Nosce te ipsum – Know thyself

Hedge Fund Managers' Vernacular

  
Analysis, Education, Life
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As there is a considerable amount of industry-specific jargon used in Hedge Fund Managers’ monthly reports, please see the below glossary to explain some of the more arcane terminology.

* Challenging conditions = double-digit down month

* Cautiously optimistic = single-digit down month

* Constrained risk profile = we bottled it at the bottom

* Alpha = imaginary friends

* Beta = punting

* Alternative Beta = punting in stuff we can’t spell

* Negative gamma = we lost money, but it wasn’t our fault

* Positive gamma = we lost money, but it wasn’t our fault

* Theta/Kappa = our research department has been on a junket

* Negative correlation = everyone else made money

* Prudent cut in leverage = we went to Antigua for our holidays

* Liquidity issues = “Thank-you for calling XYZ International Capital Markets. Unfortunately all our sales operatives are receiving their P45s at present. Your call is important to us, so please try again later, perhaps if there is ever another bull market in this rubbish…”

* Re-optimised portfolio = we threw out the baby, bathwater and the bath

* With hindsight… = ouch

* Healthy growth in AUM = how bad must the opposition be?

* Modest outflows = they wanted to redeem the lot, but our small print is world-class

* Material outflows = would anyone like to re-invest in my new minicab venture?

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