Archives of “money management” tag

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Psychology Vs. Adaptation

  
  Education
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The biggest question I have here is when do you ‘adapt’ and when do you stick with your trading strategy.

We do not know whether our strategies truly work… how do we know if we have just been ‘lucky’ verses by ‘smart’. (more…)

Winning Attitude

  
  Education
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winningattitudeOne of the most important tools that a trader possesses is his or her mind. Attitude can either make or break you as a trader.

To become a successful trader it begins with believing in yourself and having a winning attitude.

Everyone wants to be a winner, at least they think so. Unfortunately, most are not willing to perform the tasks necessary to become a consistent winner.

Winners generally achieve success by being focused on a goal. Being focused allows winners to remain committed to the tasks at hand. Most winners perform a lot of hard work, including a willingness to deal with sometimes mundane duties. Most of all, winners perform with an “I am responsible for both my failures and successes” attitude. (more…)

Expectancy

  
  Education
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Expectancy
Expectancy along with position sizing are probably the two most important factors in trading/investing success. Sadly most people have never even heard of the concept.
Expectancy is the average amount you can expect to win (or lose) per rupee at risk.
Here’s the formula for expectancy:
Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) – (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)
As an example let’s say that a trader has a system that produces winning trades 30% of the time. That trader’s average winning trade nets 10% while losing trades lose 3%.

Expectancy, position-sizing and other aspects of money management are far more important than discovering the holy grail entry system or indicator(s). Unfortunately entry techniques are where the vast majority of books and talking heads focus their attention. You could have the greatest stock picking system in the world but unless you take these money management issue into consideration you may not have any money left to trade the system. Having a system that gives you a positive expectancy should be in the forefront of your mind when putting together a trading plan.

Learn to be Disloyal

  
  Education
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Loyalty many be a virtue in family ,friends ,and pets ,but it is a fatal flaw for a trader.Never have loyalty to a position.The novice trader will have  lots of loyalty to his original position.He will ignore signs that he is on the wrong side of the market ,riding his trade into a large loss while hoping for best.The more experience trader ,having learned the importance of money management will exit quickly once it is apparent  he has made a bad trade.However ,the truly skilled trader will be able to do a 180- degree turn ,reversing his position at a loss if market behaviour  points to such a course of action.

What makes a trader consistently profitable?

  
Analysis, Education
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There are three things:
 
1) Having an edge, which is some methodology for determining with reasonable accuracy the relative probability of the market price hitting your profit target before it hits your stop loss price.  An edge is provided by a set of trading strategies, and a set of rules for when to use which trading strategies (briefly, when to follow a trend, when to fade a trend, and when to stay out.)
 
2) The discipline and emotional fortitude to follow the rules of your trading rules flawlessly.
 
3) Sound risk and money management rules.  
 
Sound money management and risk control are the keys to being a profitable trader. It is not the prediction or the latest and greatest indicator that makes the profit in trading, it is how you apply sound trading discipline with superior cash management and risk control that makes the difference between success and failure.  (more…)

Words of Wisdom

  
  Education
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These generally brief phrases often include such pearls of wisdom as:

“Buy low, sell high.”

This maxim describes profitable trading in a nutshell and represents what every successful trader aspires to do. Of course, this is much easier said than done.

“Let your profits run, but cut your losses short. “

Allowing a winning position to continue making profits while taking losses quickly can make up a solid trading strategy in itself, and it is a key element of just about any good money management plan.

Many successful traders apply this as a trading rule in their trading plans in one form or another, perhaps by having a minimum risk reward ratio where the anticipated reward on a trade is always greater than the risk taken.

“Sit on your hands when you don’t have a clue.”

Knowing when you do not know where the market is going and discerning when to stay out of the market because of difficult trading conditions or because of your individual portfolio situation can save a trader considerable money and frustration.

Remember, good trading opportunities eventually arise for those who wait for them patiently.

“No one ever went broke taking a profit.”

This seems a wise and yet somewhat limiting expression perhaps. Famous trader Jesse Livermore used to say this and then finish with “but no one ever got rich taking three or four points out of bull market”. Taking profits will always add to your account, but by “letting profits run”, a substantially higher profit can often be had.

“It’s never too low to sell or too high to buy.”

Typically, markets will continue moving in the direction of the general trend. When a high or low is made, often a sufficient amount of momentum will propel the price to an ever higher high or lower low.

“Price discounts all.”

The mantra of technical analysts, the saying refers to the belief that news about any event related to the trading instrument – whether it is related to current events or supply and demand – will already be included in the price of a currency.

“All news is old news.”

A variation on “Price discounts all”, this saying refers to the idea that the market has already moved to factor information into the currency pair’s exchange rate regardless of what the news that came out was.

“Buy the rumor, sell the fact.”

Buying the rumor means going long before a bullish news item ever makes it to the news wires for fundamental analysts to mull over. Trading activity then ensues based on this rumor indicating that an item of importance will soon be released. The trader wise to the rumor can take advantage of the release of this news by selling out their position once it becomes public.

“Plan your trade and trade your plan.”

Trading does not favor the scatterbrained over the long term, so having a comprehensive and objective trading plan which can be easily followed and implemented makes up a key component of any successful trader’s methods.

“The trend is your friend.”

Keeping abreast of the major trend in the market and following it by positioning according to its overall direction will tend to give a trader an edge.

“Markets go up the stairs and down the elevator.”

This saying refers to the slow and plodding nature with which markets often go up, whereas when prices decline, they tend to do it in a much faster and abrupt way. While less of a factor in the forex market, this is especially true of stock markets.

Basically, all of the above sayings contain valuable advice and trading wisdom that can be useful for just about anyone involved or thinking about getting involved in trading forex or any other market.

Thinking Can Make Impossible Become Possible

  
  Education
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I am sure that all of us have seen the statue of The Thinking Man. It is an amazing sculpture that evokes in individuals many different emotions and ideas.

As a trader, if we are always worrying about what might happen if we do this or do that and if it is wrong that we will lose money, then we will rarely if ever have a successful session.

I submit that if we take time before we begin a trading session to think about all of the correct decisions we will make, all of the good trades we will execute, all of the money management actions that we will adhere to and so much more, then we will be so far ahead of multitudes of other traders.

When we take time to think about what we desire to accomplish and what skill sets we have and how we will put them to use while we trade, when the session is over we will many times be amazed at what we have accomplished.

Don’t begin trading with thoughts of it being impossible to succeed or else your results will match those thoughts. Fill your thoughts with confidence and focus on what you truly desire to happen and then let yourself just go ahead and make it happen.

Importance of money management

  
  Education
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In Jack Schwager’s book Market Wizards, Schwager interviewed some of the world’s top traders and investors, nearly all of whom emphasised the importance of money management. Here are a few of my favourite excerpts:

‘Risk management is the most important thing to be well understood. Undertrade, undertrade, undertrade is my second piece of advice.Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it at least in half. ’-Bruce Kovner

‘Never risk more than 1% of your total equity in any one trade. By risking 1%, I am indifferent to any individual trade. Keeping your risk small and constant is absolutely critical.’ –Larry Hite

‘You have to minimize your losses and try to preserve capital for those very few instances where you can make a lot in a very short period of time. What you can’t afford to do is throw away your capital on suboptimal trades.’ –Richard Dennis

3 Alexander Elder’s Words of Wisdom

  
  Education
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You can be free. You can live and work anywhere in the world. You can be independent from routine and not answer to anybody. This is the life of a successful trader. Many aspire to this but few succeed. An amateur looks at a quote screen and sees millions of dollars sparkle in front of his face. He reaches for the money – and loses. He reaches again – and loses more. Traders lose because the game is hard, or out of ignorance, or lack of discipline or because of both. – ALEXANDER ELDER

Every winner needs to master three essential components of trading; a sound individual psychology, a logical trading system and good money management. These essentials are like three legs of a stool – remove one and the stool will fall, together with the person who sits on it. Losers try to build a stool with only one leg, or two at the most. They usually focus exclusively on trading systems. Your trades must be based on clearly defined rules. You have to analyze your feelings as you trade, to make sure that your decisions are intellectually sound. You have to structure your money management so that no string of losses can kick you out of the game. – ALEXANDER ELDER

Markets offer unlimited opportunities for self-sabotage, as well as for self-fulfillment. Acting out your internal conflicts in the marketplace is an expensive proposition. Traders who are not at peace with themselves often try to fulfill their contradictory wishes in their market. If you do not know where you are going, you will wind up somewhere you never wanted to be. You can succeed in trading only if you can handle it as a serious intellectual pursuit. Emotional trading is lethal. To help ensure success, practice defensive money management. A good trader watches his or her capital as successfully as a professional scuba-diver watches his or her air supply. – ALEXANDER ELDER

Book Review -The Risk of Trading by Michael Toma

  
  Education
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 Michael Toma’s The Risk of Trading: Mastering the Most Important Element in Financial Speculation (Wiley, 2012)

If I had to choose the two key sentences in this book they would be: “Risk management is not limiting losses. It is the art of maximizing profits for a given optimal risk.” (p. 173) That is, contrary to commonly-held views, risk management goes far beyond placing stops or calculating position size. It also goes beyond the purely mathematical, even though it would still behoove traders to be familiar with the seminal works of Ralph Vince (The Mathematics of Money Management, 1992) and the many books and papers that followed in a similar vein.

Toma, a corporate risk manager and the author of Trading with Confluence, offers a simple, math-free analysis. (Well, here and there a spreadsheet comes in handy.) He is at his best when discussing how to track performance.

One recommendation that I consider especially sound is that the trader track opportunity risk. “Auditing ‘opportunity risk’ is equally as important as measuring your actual trades. … In all the risks associated with trading, I find opportunity risk, whether in the form of unexecuted trades or pretarget exits, to be the difference between traders who reach that much-talked-about top 10 percent in the profession and those who remain in the novice pool, struggling to keep their heads (and P&L) above water.” (p. 126) If you were presented with a valid trade setup in your plan and you sat on your hands, track that trade. Are you actually skilled at overriding your system or should you, as Toma argues, take advantage of every opportunity that your plan presents?

Toma recommends that every trader construct his own key performance indicator (KPI) dashboard. Keep it simple, sticking to five to eight measurable items initially. And keep it balanced in scope. “The indicators should represent a balanced monitoring synopsis of performance, compliance, and business metrics. A common gap in KPI programs is that it is completely dominant in trade result metrics. A measure that detects rule breaking is far more indicative of trading success than a KPI that measures current win percentage over a small time period.” (p. 133)

(more…)

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