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OPTIMISTIC & PESSIMISM in Trading

  
  Education
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PESSIMISM 

Pessimism is defined as a tendency to stress the negative or unfavorable or take the gloomiest possible view.  Obviously, the successful trader is not pessimistic. If so, then he would never trade in the first place or if he did, he would only trade short; a “permabear” if you will.  A purely pessimistic trader would also doubt his edge, doubt any market direction, only trade after the move has happened, cut his winners short while allowing his losers to run, overtrade, under invest, etc etc.  In other words, a purely pessimistic trader would break all the rules.

OPTIMISM

Optimism is defined as the inclination to anticipate the best possible outcome while believing that most situations work out in the end for the best.  The unsuccessful trader, especially the beginning trader, is optimistic about getting rich in the stock market.  No matter what every trade will eventually make money he reasons.  The optimistic trader also loads up on a “sure thing”, seeks to justify every trade via confirmation bias, adds to losers, brags about winners while hiding losers, refuses to develop as a trader, etc etc. Just as with pessimism, the optimistic trader breaks the rules.

Patience in Trading

  
  Education
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The most important lesson I’ve learned over the years of trading is staying patient throughout the journey. There will always be loosing trades as well as winning trades, the key is not being greedy as well as staying consistently patient with the market whilst gaining experience.

Re-reading books, trading scripts as well as regularly topping up knowledge of all the relevant price action technicalities is crucial, although I’d say the main attribute to achieving consistent results is not only sticking to your own specific trading plan and rules, but remaining patient and never giving up. The use of repeated trading affirmations can help dramatically with this.

In the world of trading, those who remain patient over the years and ‘slowly but surely’ carve out a positive equity curve will surely gain the vital skills needed to make trading a full time, long term career.

Most traders have only the ‘destination’ in mind, with the ‘journey’ aspect as secondary. This is the wrong approach. Without the long journey testing your patience, including all the difficulties and hurdles, the destination would be too easy to obtain and everyone would be doing it. This is why learning to trade can be seen as easy, however its the journey that most amateur traders find too difficult to sustain. This can all be overcome with the right trading mindset and understanding.

:Anything that comes quick goes quick. Patience is required for outstanding results.

THE SUCCESSFUL TRADER … ACCORDING TO MARK DOUGLAS

  
Analysis, Education
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douglasquote

There is a reason why so few traders succeed.  It is not for lack of study or effort or passion.  It is not for lack of education or a Bloomberg platform subscription.  It is not because only a select few have access to technical “secrets” (a.k.a. indicators).  No.  So few succeed at trading for the same reason that so few succeed at living an abundant life.

The unsuccessful refuse to think differently when faced with difficulties believing that luck has passed them by.  They do not succeed because the want of instant gratification and its fleeting rewards has replaced the need for sustainable, hard fought, earned rewards indicative of a mindset prepared to tackle failure as nothing but a mathematical equation: here is the problem now let’s find the solution.

The mediocre search for easy answers to difficult problems believing that the right answers to their questions are found somewhere “out there”.   The successful make difficult decisions where there are no easy answers, questioning whether their perception of what is out there is a distorted reflection of what is inside of them.

The best traders, according to Mark Douglas, think differently than others because they know that what is most important is “how they think about what they do and how they’re thinking when they do it.”

Apply Will Power in Trading

  
  Education
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Much of successful trading has to do with having the discipline, the willpower, to follow the trading plan. And much of a good trading plan goes counter to a human’s natural reactions to the market. Hence the greater your willpower, i.e. the better you are able to have self-control or self-regulation, the better your trading.

Below are some key points from the article and Roy Baumeister’s YouTube videos, and my thoughts on how they apply to trading.

The Nature of Willpower

  • Willpower is a limited resource that gets depleted when you use it.
    • I typically find that my trading at the early part of the session is good. I would follow my trading plan well and profits usually follows. However towards the later part of the morning, I start to make mistakes and go counter to my trading plan, that’s when my results suffer.
    • Be aware of when you have run out of juice. I find that once I start make a few consecutive trades that violate my trading plan, I recognize that my willpower has been depleted, I am not making good decisions, so I go take a break, or stop trading for the day entirely.
    • Some traders recommend not trading for more than 3 hours a day. Yes you may miss a run away market after you stop trading, but recall your experiences when the market trended very well the entire day but yet you lost money. To extract money from the marketsrequires willpower to make the right trading decisions. When you are not able to follow your trading plan, the probabilities favor you giving money to the markets instead, regardless of the market situation.
  • When your willpower is depleted, you feel your emotions more intensely (more…)

The Trader’s Journey

  
  Education
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  • A grand call to adventure. Who would not want to make a pile of money working from the comfort of your own computer screen?
  • Finding a mentor. Good mentors matter! Few of us who have succeeded would have done so without some help.
  • Crossing over into an “unreal” world. Markets are crazy. When we look deeply into markets, maybe we become a little crazy ourselves, and we certainly become disconnected from ordinary reality.
  • Facing dire challenges. The emotional highs and lows of trading can be extreme. Is there a trader alive who hasn’t been awake at 4am wondering if they can ever do this, why they ever tried in the first place, how they could be so stupid to make the same mistakes over and over, and what they were going to do tomorrow? (This is probably not the time to mention that we only write stories about the heroes that complete the journey! A lot of dragons feasted very well, for a very long time.)
  • Failure somehow, perhaps almost miraculously, is transformed to success.
  • We figure out how to incorporate our trading activities into the everyday world, and discover that things probably weren’t quite as exotic or difficult as we had thought.

See? Trading is not truly about learning patterns. It is not about learning some math. It is not about skill development, and it is not even about risk management. All of these things are important, but the real work of trading is work on ourselves.

What's The Price of Your Dreams ? MAKE THE GAME WINNABLE

  
  Education
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  • “There is only one thing that makes a dream impossible to achieve: the fear of failure.”  -Paulo Coelho
  • You win by living on your own terms–as well and as fully as you can, for as long as you can.
  • If you’re chasing someone else’s goal, you always lose.
  • Most people overestimate what they can do in a year, and they massively underestimate what they can accomplish in a decade or two.

MARK DOUGLAS -On 5% Successful Traders

  
  Education
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douglasquote

There is a reason why so few traders succeed.  It is not for lack of study or effort or passion.  It is not for lack of education or a Bloomberg platform subscription.  It is not because only a select few have access to technical “secrets” (a.k.a. indicators).  No.  So few succeed at trading for the same reason that so few succeed at living an abundant life.

The unsuccessful refuse to think differently when faced with difficulties believing that luck has passed them by.  They do not succeed because the want of instant gratification and its fleeting rewards has replaced the need for sustainable, hard fought, earned rewards indicative of a mindset prepared to tackle failure as nothing but a mathematical equation: here is the problem now let’s find the solution.

The mediocre search for easy answers to difficult problems believing that the right answers to their questions are found somewhere “out there”.   The successful make difficult decisions where there are no easy answers, questioning whether their perception of what is out there is a distorted reflection of what is inside of them.

The best traders, according to Mark Douglas, think differently than others because they know that what is most important is “how they think about what they do and how they’re thinking when they do it.”

Three Emotions in Trading : FEAR, HOPE, AND GREED

  
  Education
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Fear, hope and greed are probably the three most common emotions traders deal with.  Holding on to losers, exiting too early, or jumping in before confirmation are just a few examples of the things we do when emotion manages our trades for us.  Trading without well-defined boundaries can be tempting, especially when things like intuition and “gut feeling” are things we take pride in as human beings.

We’ve all heard stories about how someone’s gut instinct helped them to avoid a dangerous situation or how someone’s intuition led them to make a perfect decision with little or no substantive information to guide them.  As powerful as these abilities may be in our human experience, I’ve learned that they have no place in trading.  I have found that what we perceive as gut instinct or intuition while trading is usually just fear, hope, or greed in disguise.

I address these three specific emotions using three boundaries:

1. Stop Loss- At what price point is my idea proven wrong? 

This boundary addresses the fear of realizing a loss.

2. Time limit- How long do I give this trade to work?

Hoping that a trade will eventually work out as price goes no where only ties up capital that could be used for better trades.

3. Target- At what price point does my idea come to an end?

Having a clear target for your idea keeps you from being greedy (Exiting the majority of a position at the target and letting profits run on the remainder is an effective way to address greed with winning positions).

Mauboussin: Three Steps to Effective Decision Making (Video )

  
Education, Video
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Making an important decision is never easy, but making the right decision is even more challenging. Effective decision-making isn’t just about accumulating information and going with what seems to make the most sense. Sometimes, internal biases can impact the way we seek out and process information, polluting the conclusions we reach in the process. It’s critical to be conscious of those tendencies and to accumulate the sort of fact-based and unbiased inputs that will result in the highest likelihood that a decision actually leads to the desired outcome. In this video, Michael Mauboussin, Credit Suisse’s Head of Financial Strategies, lays out three steps that can help focus a decision-maker’s thinking.

Make the Right Choice: Three Steps to Effective Decision Making 

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