A trader’s number one job is NOT:
A traders #1 job is to be a great risk manager. (more…)
A: This is a fairly common phenomenon which is why we have to learn how to adapt to market conditions and be patient with our strategies. Just because you “try harder” doesn’t mean that your profits will expand equally in relation to your effort. While effort helps create and sustain an edge, at the end of the day you still need the market to cooperate with whatever you are doing.
The best analogy I can provide here is one that many golfers are familiar with. If you’ve ever golfed in high winds, you know that your score will often be higher. Some of this, obviously is due directly to the windy conditions (which you have no control over). However, studies show that the most significant reason why golfers perform poorly in windy conditions has less to do with the conditions but more about how they react to those conditions. For example, many golfers will tend to swing harder in high winds which causes them to lose both their swing tempo and balance and they make more mental mistakes because the wind distracts them. The same is true for traders whose strategies are not flowing with the market. Without realizing it, traders will modify their own approaches (often by trying harder by making trades that don’t fit their strategy) which tends to hurt performance more than it helps.
Bottom line – keep close tabs on yourself and how you’re “adjusting” to market conditions. Being aware of how the market environment is affecting you and your changes to it is an important skill every trader must possess.
In high volatile environment (now), you would often be shaken out of positions, only to see them reverse back in the desired direction. This is not a reason not to honor your stop losses. It is just a reminder that either your timing was inappropriate or that you don’t have an edge in the current market environment and therefore you shouldn’t participate until things change. There are times to buy, there are times to sell, there are times to do nothing.
In bear market, honoring your stop loss will save you form disaster. It will assist you to preserve capital, so you could live to trade another day. In bull market, it will free out money for better trading opportunities.
The only reason to hold a stock in your portfolio is if you would buy it at its current level and there aren’t any better opportunities for your money.
We are experiencing a rare event of market destruction that will lay down the foundations for the greatest wealth-building opportunities in our life time.
After the darkest hour of the night, the sun will rise again.
Ideal preparation involves commitment to clearly defined rules of engagement. This is necessary for the developing a sound, consistent pre-trade routine that is suitable for any market environment. The ideal state of mind for action is feeling confident and remaining focused on the present. The focused confidence being a direct result of adequate preparation. If you are prepared then doubt will find no home in your mind or in your charts. The ideal response to your trade should foster future confidence by building on past successes while learning from mistakes, all within the framework of maintaining a healthy balance between the two.
These three are mutually inclusive. Without each working together to create the whole, managing your trading success will be difficult. Simple really but difficult to manage. But once managed very difficult to complicate.
ACTION + RESPONSE = COMPLICATED AS IT CAUSES CONFUSION
PREPARATION + ACTION = COMPLICATED AS IT CAUSES DOUBT
PREPARATION + RESPONSE = NOT POSSIBLE WITHOUT TAKING ACTION
PREPARATION + ACTION + RESPONSE = MANAGEABLE SIMPLICITY
You have to have the ability to change and see how the markets are changing and adapt to it. That’s a constant process. That’s why I think you see some people do well for four or five years and then just disappear.
History can be a useful benchmark but only if everything is put into the right context. Markets are dynamic and people’s reactions are different. It is much more subtle and nuanced than looking at what happened the last time.
No setup works all the time and in all types of market environment. The success rate of any setup fluctuates in cycles – there are periods when it is high and periods when it is low. Most successful speculators have specialized in a small number of setups. The question is, do you change when the market dynamics change and do you adapt new setups or do you wait for the proper market environment to come back before you risk any money?
Trading is not all about just stock picking, it is not just about a winning system. Yes, first you have to understand how to trade and put the odds in your favor of winning, but that is not enough. You must also add in risk management so when you lose ten times in a row your trading career and account does not end there. You also must have faith in your system and method to be able to keep trading it even when you are losing, and you will have losing months, maybe even a losing year, can you keep going to be around for the big wins?
One dimensional traders just pick stocks, if they are right they win for a while, but eventually they do not stop out when they are wrong and they blow up their account. They also eventually get emotionally frustrated from wild equity swings and they eventually quit and blame the market.
Two dimensional traders have a good system and cut their losses but have trouble with self confidence and belief in their system. They tend to blame themselves when their accounts draw down 10% to 20% and have trouble understanding that it is just part of the game. The market environment is determining wins and losses not the trader, they don’t understand this. All they can do is take their entries and exits as they come and let the market do what it does. They have not separated themselves from their trading.
The three dimensional trader takes entries and exits based on his methodology that he believes in, he manages risk per trade carefully and never loses more than 1% t0 2% of his capital on any one trade. The 3D trader’s self worth and confidence is not tied up in any one trade, or monthly performance he understands this is a long term process with ups and downs. Wins and losses do not change his mindset. It is just a business, stocks are just inventory, the market gives and the market takes away, and he just takes what it is giving.
Michael Jardine’s latest book focuses on simple ways to profit from predictable moves in today’s financial markets…
In today’s financial climate, many traders are finding the markets difficult to navigate. With the volatile swings seen over the past weeks and months, it is increasingly difficult to predict where the market is headed and even harder to make a profit day after day. Emotion and inexperience trading in today’s market conditions can lead some to overtrade, trying to gain back the losses suffered throughout this current economic downturn.
In the latest trading title from niche finance publisher Marketplace Books, Just a Trade a Day: Simple Ways to Profit from Predictable Market Moves, traders are introduced to Michael Jardine’s newly developed methods of making market predictions–and profiting—making just a single trade each day.
The author of New Frontiers in Fibonacci Trading, Jardine has used his extensive background in Fibonacci theory to build an easy-to-use trading system. In clear-cut terms, he teaches traders how apply the Market Profile™ and Points of Control to determine how today’s market environment will best produce with their own particular trading style. By giving readers real-life examples from his very own life experiences building this system, Jardine proves the success of this system.
Michael Jardine has been trading, teaching about trading, and blogging about trading on his web site, Enthios.com, for over twelve years. His first trading book, New Frontiers in Fibonacci Trading, was published in 2003. Now, seven years later, Jardine has come back with a combination of his own Jardine Range and what he has dubbed the “Universal Chart,” to find that one trade a day is what all traders are looking for. Jardine has held many positions at a number of marketing-oriented companies including, Chanel, Walt Disney, and Patagonia. He has also created a highly informative video presentation to optimize your trading profits and gain more trading confidence.
