“The best we can ever hope to achieve as traders, is a favorable probability from trading our “perceptions of market behavior”!.
Archives of “market behavior” tag
rssTime – Space – Reality – Oneness – Markets
What do the above all have in common? That’s right, “nonlinear” concepts!
It is interesting that one of the great minds of humanity, Albert Einstein spent his time on “nonlinear” concepts such as “time, space, reality, and oneness.” I find it more interesting that the interdependence of these “nonlinear” concepts is what makes a market tick as well.
As a trader, “timing” your trade within the “market” is based on “reality” in relation to the “oneness” of other traders and your outcome is determined by the “space” or movement of your position.
It is my opinion based on consulting with many traders that most traders incorrectly view the markets from purely a “linear” mindset and instead should view the markets from a “nonlinear” mindset as the markets are “nonlinear” themselves. This is why rigid logical thinkers or “linear intellectuals” find trading the markets so frustrating. Since they operate from their logical “linear” “beta” mind state, and become frustrated when market behavior does not do what it “should.” This is also why I feel that successful trading has to be both “art” & “science.”
Think about how you approach the markets and to what degree you are a “linear” vs. a “nonlinear” mindset. Also try and remember a trade or trading day where it seemed effortless and you just “let-go” and flowed with the market. In days like these, I’ll bet logical thinking was secondary to enjoying yourself, and selecting trades based on both your trading “tools” and your “intuition” which represents trading the markets as an “art” & “science.” Compare that to days when you where frustrated because the market did not do what it was suppose to based solely on logical assumptions.
Usually fear and greed are by products of logical thinking. Fear and greed are emotions and “nonlinear” in concept, but created by “linear” thinking. Isn’t it interesting that fear and greed are present in the markets and are “nonlinear” as well. Or is it because fear and greed are “nonlinear” and that they are present in the markets?
Maybe the key to a good trading system should be based on how to measure or determine “nonlinear” market events such as fear and greed. The purpose of this article is to have you look at the markets from a “nonlinear” point of view so that you can perhaps “see” market relationships that where invisible to you before.
Madame Market
If you have the feeling that the market has a split personality, one day out to shower you with peace and blessings and the other to punish mercilessly, it can only mean that on some level you are still taking it personally.
Think of it this way – there are too many players with too many conflicting ideas about market direction for it to ever form one cohesive personality. The only exception I have witnessed to this rule is when fear clearly dominates the scene, and ironically these are times that are the easiest to trade.
The highest attainment for a traders developing psychology is to achieve what has been called “intellectual purity” – that is the state free from emotional reactiveness to market behavior; the ability to accept both reward and punishment with equanimity and understanding.
That said, we know that big players perform ‘market sweeps’ to take out stops at sitting duck levels, so we can at least attempt to protect against that. The main point though is to struggle against any dimly forming impression of the market being a single entity with a personality.
That is an illusion.
Meet the market with an empty mind
You know you are a daytrader when you go to the movies with loved ones and a line in the movie becomes you next daytrading blog post.
The movie was 2012. A movie about the end of the world and the preservation of the human race. the entire movie is filled with moments of natural disasters, crashing buildings, people meeting their end, and people who are trying to survive and perserve the human race.
Amongst the mass destruction where the south pole becomes located someplace in Wisconsin, it is not surprising that religion comes into play. Once scene includes a wise old monk speaking with a young monk who obviously has not attained the wisdom of the old man. As they are speaking the wise old man pours a cup of brown tea until it is overflowing. The young monk tells him to stop as the cup is overflowing. The old man stops pouring and explains,
”like this cup a man’s mind is overflowing with opinions and speculation.
You must empty the cup in order to fill it with wisdom” (more…)
Hedge Fund Market Wizards: Covel Interviews Schwager
Jack Schwager wrote the original Market Wizards books, two of the must read, seminal books for investors and traders.
His latest is Hedge Fund Market Wizards — it is a behind-the-scenes look at the world of hedge funds, from fifteen traders who’ve consistently outperformed.
Schwager explores the differences between great traders and everyone else who thinks they can trade. Rare insights into the trading philosophy and methods employed by some of the most profitable individuals in the hedge fund business.
Mike Covel interviews Schwager, and its very interesting:
Jack Schwager:
“Five Market Wizard Lessons”
Hedge Fund Market Wizards is ultimately a search for insights to be drawn from the most successful market practitioners. The last chapter distills the wisdom of the 15 skilled traders interviewed into 40 key market lessons. A sampling is provided below: (more…)
Five Market Wizard Lessons
“Five Market Wizard Lessons”
Hedge Fund Market Wizards is ultimately a search for insights to be drawn from the most successful market practitioners. The last chapter distills the wisdom of the 15 skilled traders interviewed into 40 key market lessons. A sampling is provided below:
1. There Is No Holy Grail in Trading
Many traders mistakenly believe that there is some single solution to defining market behavior. Not only is there no single solution to the markets, but those solutions that do exist are continually changing. The range of the methods used by the traders interviewed in Hedge Fund Market Wizards, some of which are even polar opposites, is a testament to the diversity of possible approaches. There are a multitude of ways to be successful in the markets, albeit they are all hard to find and achieve.
2. Don’t Confuse the Concepts of Winning and Losing Trades with Good and Bad Trades
A good trade can lose money, and a bad trade can make money. Even the best trading processes will lose a certain percentage of the time. There is no way of knowing a priori which individual trade will make money. As long as a trade adhered to a process with a positive edge, it is a good trade, regardless of whether it wins or loses because if similar trades are repeated multiple times, they will come out ahead. Conversely, a trade that is taken as a gamble is a bad trade regardless of whether it wins or loses because over time such trades will lose money. (more…)
keep it simple -Don't miss to read…
If you have been reading this blog for a while you know that ANIRUDH SETHI REPORT promotes simplicity. Am I alone in thinking this way? I do not believe so! I would hazard to guess that most all, if not all, professional traders believe that successful trading boils down to having and following a very simple set of rules.
Here is a very short list of comments from very reliable sources—successful professional traders.
John F. Carter: “It is important to remember that there is no need to spend wasted years looking for complicated setups or the next Holy Grail. There are very simple setups out there to use. Some of the best traders I know have been trading the same setup, on the same time frame, on the same market for 20 years. They don’t care about anything else, and they don’t want to learn about anything else. This works for them, and they are the masters of this setup. They have nothing else coming in to interfere with their focus” (p. 31, Mastering the Trade: Proven Techniques for Profiting from Intraday and Swing Trading Setups).
Clifford Bennett: “While there have been some spectacular front-cover traders, the ones who amass fortunes year after year tend to stay in the background. At the very least, they display a simple and down-to-earth approach to markets if they are ever interviewed” (p. 117, Warrior Trading: Inside the Mind of an Elite Currency Trader). (more…)
Trading Quotes -The Disciplined Trader ,Mark Douglas
The market is never wrong in what it does; it just is. Therefore, you as an individual trader interacting with the market—first as an observer to perceive opportunity, then as a participant executing a trade, contributing to the overall market behavior—have to confront an environment where only you can be wrong, and it’s never the other way around. As a trader, you have to decide what is more important—being right or making money—because the two are not always compatible or consistent with one another…—-The Disciplined Trader,Mark Douglas
If, in fact, you can’t control or manipulate the markets and the markets have absolutely no power or control over you, then the responsibility for what you perceive and for your resulting behavior resides only in you. The one thing you can control is yourself. As a trader, you have the power either to give yourself money or to give your money to other traders.—-The Disciplined Trader,Mark Douglas
Take the knocks
I’ve identified recently that one of the most important internal abilities a trader needs is a seemingly endless supply of resilience to take daily knocks in the market and get back up. For me this shows up as a “not happening day”…
Some days its happening, but some days its not. As soon as I realize I’m in a not happening day the most important thing to do is quit right now and start again tomorrow completely fresh. Just forget it, start over tomorrow.
Each day in the market has no connection for the trader to the one before, its a clean slate. You need to just bounce back like a ball, fresh as a daisy. The sins of yesterday are completely forgiven, but you will be judged on how you act today.
Strangely I notice that these days also often line up to some degree with market behavior. My not happening days can sometimes be accompanied by a daily print that whipsawed in an ugly confused fashion.
This is not always the case, sometimes the market trends cleanly but I just didn’t get what was going on, I was in the wrong state to be doing this. Other days my head is clear but the market is a nervous wreck.
It is a strength though to be able to realize quickly that today its just not happening for what ever reason and to leave it for another day. If I’m in a position and i feel like this, I’ll just cut it, start flat tommorow. Usually these are positions that are going nowhere or else going bad anyway.
17 One Liners for Traders
Trade the market, not the money
• Always trade value, never trade price
• The answer to the question, “What’s the trend?” is the question, “What’s your timeframe?”
• Never allow a statistically significant unrealized gain to turn into a statistically significant realized loss (ATR)
• Don’t tug at green shoots
• When there’s nothing to do, do nothing
• Stop adjustments can only be used to reduce risk, not increase it.
• There are only two kinds of losses: big losses and small losses, given these choices – always choose small losses.
• Don’t Anticipate, Just Participate
• Buy the strongest, sell the weakest (RSI)
• Sideways markets eventually resolve themselves into trending markets and vice versa
• Stagger entries & exits – Regret Minimization techniques
• Look for low risk, high reward, high probability setups
• Correlations are for defense, not offense
• Drawdowns are for underleveraged trading and research
• Develop systems based on the kinds of “pain” (weaknesses) endured when they aren’t working or you’ll abandon them during drawdowns.
• Be disciplined in risk management & flexible in perceiving market behavior