I spent hours reading and re-reading this book, and eventually made a summary of all the key quotes. In a series of posts I’ll be sharing these quotes with you, and hopefully they will inspire you to take your trading to the next level. I hope you enjoy my first selections:
1. You will need to learn how to adjust your attitudes and beliefs about trading in such a way that you can trade without the slightest bit of fear, but at the same time keep a framework in place that does not allow you to become reckless.
2. Trading is an activity that offers the individual unlimited freedom of creative expression.
3. The unlimited characteristics of the trading environment require that we act with some degree of restraint and self-control, at least if we want to create some measure of consistent success.
4. The hard reality of trading is that, if you want to create consistency, you have to start from the premise that no matter what the outcome, you are completely responsible.
5. One of the principal reasons so many successful people have failed miserably at trading is that their success is partly attributable to their superior ability to manipulate and control the social environment, to respond to what they want. (Unfortunately) the market doesn’t respond to control and manipulation (unless you’re a very large trader).
6. The tools you will use to create this new version of yourself are your willingness and desire to learn, fuelled by your passion to be successful. Successful traders have virtually eliminated the effects of fear and recklessness from their trading.
7. Attitude produces better overall results than analysis or technique. (more…)
Archives of “manipulation” tag
rssBetween Theory And Fear
Hell tortures you to stop learning.
George Soros is setting up institutions to study the failure of economic thinking. They have succeed in demonstrating failure, he said this afternoon at the CEU in Budapest, but not in discovering what to do about it.
The source of the problem, he explained, is relying too much on theory, on knowledge, and not on how our not knowing what to do makes us act in ways that change the world, which world we don’t see because we expect it to conform to our theories. We need to be able to discard our theories when they are proven wrong, and we need to understand that no general theory is enough, because our actions are constantly changing the world we need to respond to and understand.
So I said to him after his talk:
– You have divided human activity in two parts, theory, and manipulation. Theory doesn’t work, and manipulation of markets is based on crowd behavior, that is, fear. But since ancient Greece, the parts to human activity have been divided into not two, but three: you have left out practical action.
Practical action differs from manipulation, fearfully following and leading each other, in that its end is making learning easier. It’s purpose is outside of itself, in the part of life where we learn, where we find beauty, what makes life good.
Why not establish institutions that study how economic relations are practical: what forms of cooperation lead to a life of learning and freedom from manipulation, and which don’t. And study how to make the transition from the present institutions based entirely on greed and fear to the kind we need to have. Do you understand?
– I have studied maximization of happiness.
– No that’s not what I mean. Counting results of fear based behaviors: doing that is living still in the world of the theoretical and the manipulative. We need to study how to cooperate, study what forms of cooperation help us learn to make our lives better.
Let’s go, says George Soros assistant, urging him as she has been doing for the last few minutes as we talked. OK, I say, I tried. You remember me, right?
– Yes, he nods his head.
I’d asked him for a job the day before when I saw him walking down the street from the University to his hotel.
Practical necessity. I need to get out of this hell of Budapest, this place putting pressure on me not to learn.
People say it is difficult to diagnose the political problems of our times, but I don’t see the difficulty. We’re together in this hell trapped between theory and fear.
Thoughts on Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
Dear Reader/Traders….If u had not Read this Book…then u had not read anything……its a Bible …Buy and Read atleast once ………..
One of the fascinating things in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is the constant interplay between duplicit and dishonest practices of Livermore himself and the crooks he deals with. It reminds one of the crossroaders book where the two best friends cheat each other with a mechanical mirror and other means in constant games between them. Only when they realize that the stake between them keeps getting smaller do they realize that they’re both getting poorer because they have to pay the third crook, the “mechanic” for the use of the mirror. The rake was constant. They both show no compunction about cheating their best friends until they realize they’ve been viged to death by a third party.
Livermore is constantly appalled that in the nefarious schemes of manipulation and cornering that the holders of worthless securities engage in with him, that his customers have no honor among mutual thieves like the crossroaders. His terms for a manipulation are as follows: suppose the manipulators have 200000 shares of a listed stock at 40. Livermore will take call on all 200000 shares of stock at 40 for 1 year. They will also put up 6 million in cash for him to make a market and engage in his own insider trading with.
I doubt that the two most wealthy fellow travelers themselves and friends of the Oval who engage in such transactions with the triangle of their colleagues in the banking, and legislative branches receive such favorable terms or insider information today, albeit they seem to have more influence on the terms and policies.
In any case, how would you value what Livermore’s normal take was for such a manipulation? He receives a call for 1 year on 2000000 shares and that’s worth about 10%, so 800000. Then use of 6 million for manipulation for 1 year, enablling him to front run with that stake. How to value that aspect? Let’s say 500000.
He engaged in these transactions in the 1920-1929 period. No wonder Livermore was worth 50 million at the height of 1929 before losing it all, and declaring bankruptcy the fourth time, and going bust for at least the twelth time in 1934, before his suicide at the Sherry Netherlands.
it reminds one of the radi0 show tag line “crime does not pay”.
12 Quotes From ‘Trading In The Zone'
1. Attitude produces better overall results than analysis or technique.
2. Positive winning attitude = expecting a positive result from your efforts, with an acceptance that whatever results you get are a perfect reflection of your level of development and what you need to learn to get better.
3. Winning in any endeavour is mostly a function of attitude.
4. Losing and being wrong are inevitable realities of trading.
5. The market has no responsibility towards the individual trader. Taking responsibility means acknowledging and accepting, at the deepest part of your identity, that you – not the market – are completely responsible for your success or failure as a trader.
6. If you perceive the endless stream of opportunities to enter and exit trades without self-criticism and regret, then you will be in the best frame of mind to act in your own best interest and learn from your experiences.
7. You will need to learn how to adjust your attitudes and beliefs about trading in such a way that you can trade without the slightest bit of fear, but at the same time keep a framework in place that does not allow you to become reckless.
8. Trading is an activity that offers the individual unlimited freedom of creative expression.
9. The unlimited characteristics of the trading environment require that we act with some degree of restraint and self-control, at least if we want to create some measure of consistent success.
10. The hard reality of trading is that, if you want to create consistency, you have to start from the premise that no matter what the outcome, you are completely responsible.
11. One of the principal reasons so many successful people have failed miserably at trading is that their success is partly attributable to their superior ability to manipulate and control the social environment, to respond to what they want. (Unfortunately) the market doesn’t respond to control and manipulation (unless you’re a very large trader).
12. The tools you will use to create this new version of yourself are your willingness and desire to learn, fuelled by your passion to be successful. Successful traders have virtually eliminated the effects of fear and recklessness from their trading.
Real Fact about European Market
Random Prize
I have been reading Mark Douglas’s excellent book Trading in the Zone and he hits on the most amazing point regarding the effect of random rewards. In brief, it goes like this:
If you teach a monkey to do a certain task and reward him when he does it, he will learn how to keep doing the task to get the reward over and over.
Following this, if you cease to give him the reward he will quickly cotton on and stop doing the task.
However – if you give the monkey a RANDOM reward, he falls into a sort of mesmerized state of addiction where he will keep doing the task continuously, even if no more rewards come. This is exactly why people are addicted to gambling, and if you look at your trading life it might be the same: random rewards.
This got me to thinking about how a trading plan combats this effect and once again proves itself indispensable, because in a sense you move the whole pattern over to the first scenario where if you follow the plan you get the reward. The effect will still be there of course because not every trade is a winner, but it is the only realistic antidote to this obviously primal reaction to receiving random rewards.
I’ve heard this from other sources too – in Robert Greene’s 48 Laws of Power he talks about how random patterns of reward and punishment are actually a key factor in both manipulation and brainwashing. This is known to also drive animals of all kinds mad.
You see how deep and penetrating this effect could be if you are trading without a plan? No plan means basically random trading, which means random reward and punishment dished out from the market, creating an addicted state of anxiety crossed with eurphoria – you know what it feels like I’m sure.
Aiming for the Right Target in Trading
When trading goes right, it can be a great feeling. When trading goes wrong it can be a nightmare. Fortunes are made in a matter of weeks and lost in a matter of minutes. This pattern repeats itself as each new generation of traders hit the market. They hurl themselves out of the night like insane insects against some sort of karmic bug-light; all thought and all existence extinguished in one final cosmic “zzzzzzt”. Obviously, for a trader to be successful he must acknowledge this pattern and then break it. This can be accomplished by asking the right questions and finding the correct answers by rational observation and logical conclusion.
This article will attempt to address one question:
“What is the difference between a winning trader and a losing trader?”
What follows are eleven observations and conclusions that I use in my own trading to help keep me on the right track. You can put these ideas into table form, and use them as a template to determine the probability of a trader being successful.
OBSERVATION #1
The greatest number of losing traders is found in the short-term and intraday ranks. This has less to do with the time frame and more to do with the fact that many of these traders lack proper preparation and a well thought-out game plan. By trading in the time frame most unforgiving of even minute error and most vulnerable to floor manipulation and general costs of trading, losses due to lack of knowledge and lack of preparedness are exponential. These traders are often undercapitalized as well. Winning traders often trade in mid-term to long-term time frames. Often they carry greater initial levels of equity as well.
CONCLUSION:
Trading in mid-term and long-term time frames offers greater probability of success from a statistical point of view. The same can be said for level of capitalization. The greater the initial equity, the greater the probability of survival.
OBSERVATION #2
Losing traders often use complex systems or methodologies or rely entirely on outside recommendations from gurus or black boxes. Winning traders often use very simple techniques. Invariably they use either a highly modified version of an existing technique or else they have invented their own.
CONCLUSION
This seems to fit in with the mistaken belief that “complex” is synonymous with “better”. Such is not necessarily the case. Logically one could argue that simplistic market approaches tend to be more practical and less prone to false interpretation. In truth, even the terms “simple” or “complex” have no relevance. All that really matters is what makes money and what doesn’t. From the observations, we might also conclude that maintaining a major stake in the trading process via our own thoughts and analyses is important to being successful as a trader. This may also explain why a trader who possesses no other qualities than patience and persistence often outperforms those with advanced education, superior intellect or even true genius.
OBSERVATION #3
Losing traders often rely heavily on computer-generated systems and indicators. They do not take the time to study the mathematical construction of such tools nor do they consider variable usage other than the most popular interpretation. Winning traders often take advantage of the use of computers because of their speed in analyzing large amounts of data and many markets. However, they also tend to be accomplished chartists who are quite happy to sit down with a paper chart, a pencil, protractor and calculator. Very often you will find that they have taken the time to learn the actual mathematical construction of averages and oscillators and can construct them manually if need be. They have taken the time to understand the mechanics of market machinery right down to the last nut and bolt.
CONCLUSION:
If you want to be successful at anything, you need to have a strong understanding of the tools involved. Using a hammer to drive a nut in to a threaded hole might work, but it isn’t pretty or practical.
OBSERVATION #4
Losing traders spend a great deal of time forecasting where the market will be tomorrow. Winning traders spend most of their time thinking about how traders will react to what the market is doing now, and they plan their strategy accordingly.
CONCLUSION:
Success of a trade is much more likely to occur if a trader can predict what type of crowd reaction a particular market event will incur. Being able to respond to irrational buying or selling with a rational and well thought out plan of attack will always increase your probability of success. It can also be concluded that being a successful trader is easier than being a successful analyst since analysts must in effect forecast ultimate outcome and project ultimate profit. If one were to ask a successful trader where he thought a particular market was going to be tomorrow, the most likely response would be a shrug of the shoulders and a simple comment that he would follow the market wherever it wanted to go. By the time we have reached the end of our observations and conclusions, what may have seemed like a rather inane response may be reconsidered as a very prescient view of the market. (more…)
Traits of Livermore That Fueled His Success
You know, and I know that human nature is like the leopard that can’t change his spots. Even armed with all the latest findings into the inner workings of our psyche, it seems to provide scant help-certainly when we need it the most. I don’t know about you, but it seems like a lot of people are crying foul when it comes to the market-like it’s a rigged game. I asked Jesse about that issue:
“Get the slips of the financial news agencies any day and it will surprise you to see how many statements of an implied semi-official nature they print. The authority is some “leading insider’ or a “prominent director” or “a high official” or “someone in authority” who presumably knows what he is talking about…Quite apart from the intelligent study of speculation everywhere the trader must consider certain facts in connection with the game in Wall Street. In addition to trying to determine how to make money one must also try to keep from losing money. It is almost as important to know what not to do as to know what should be done. It is therefore well to remember that manipulation of some sort enters into practically all advances in individual stocks and that such advances are engineered by insiders with one object in view and one only and that is to sell at the best profit possible.”
So, is it not true that the more things change, the more they remain the same? What about all the talk about the retail investor leaving the market for good-because it’s not a level playing field? Do they not detest their own gullibility? Again, from Livermore: (more…)
Surfer vs Gambler
The ocean and the markets have many things in common. For one, they are both a dynamic event that is constantly in flux, and from the average traders point of view, beyond any possibility of manipulation. It is what it is; it will go where it goes.
This analogy works if we consider the mindset of a surfer. He knows that he is in a passive relationship to the sea, yet he also knows that he can develop a skill in relationship to its ever changing movements in order to reward himself. The surfer cannot demand anything from the sea, he can only wait for it to present him with an opportunity and engage it when the time is right. To go in during a total calm or a tsunami would be both equally foolish; he must wait for the conditions to be right. (more…)
Surfer vs Gambler
The ocean and the markets have many things in common. For one, they are both a dynamic event that is constantly in flux, and from the average traders point of view, beyond any possibility of manipulation. It is what it is; it will go where it goes.
This analogy works if we consider the mindset of a surfer. He knows that he is in a passive relationship to the sea, yet he also knows that he can develop a skill in relationship to its ever changing movements in order to reward himself. The surfer cannot demand anything from the sea, he can only wait for it to present him with an opportunity and engage it when the time is right. To go in during a total calm or a tsunami would be both equally foolish; he must wait for the conditions to be right. (more…)