So often I see people make decisions in the market on what makes sense to them. It makes sense to buy stocks when the company insiders are buying. It makes sense to buy stocks that are making positive announcements. It makes sense to listen to what the President has to say about the company’s prospects. However, all that matters is what the market thinks of the company and whether the buyers are more motivated than the sellers. So often, the market does things that do not make any sense until we later learn of what motivated the market to do what it did. Remember, the market is forward looking, most times, what makes sense is judged on what has happened in the past.
Archives of “logic” tag
rssGreed
There was a scorpion, who wanted to cross a river, but cannot as he could not swim.
He asked a frog to carry him across a river.
The frog was afraid of being stung, but the scorpion reassures him that if it stung, the frog would sink and the scorpion would drown as well.
The logic appeals to the Frog, So he then agrees; nevertheless, in mid-river, the scorpion stings him, dooming them both.
When asked why, the scorpion explains, “I’m a scorpion; it’s my nature.”
To let profits run, need to keep Greed at bay, else it will Sting in each and every trade.
On Flexibility
#1 Rule of Investing: Be Flexible – Roy Nueberger
Never adopt permanently any type of asset or any selection method. Try to stay flexible, open-minded, and skeptical. – John Templeton
Pliability: Consider and reconsider the facts, and your opinions. Stubbornness as to opinions-“cockiness”-must be entirely eliminated. – Bernard Baruch
Ignore mechanical formulas – Phil Carret
If there is anything I detest, it’s a mechanistic formula for anything. People should use their heads and go by logic and reason, not by hard and fast rules. – Gerald Loeb
Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless–like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, You put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, You put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash! Be water my friend. – Bruce Lee. Ok, this quote comes from the world of martial arts, but the lesson transcends mere combat.
Ray Dalio Principles
Afew gems taken from Ray Dalio’s Principles. Here’s the link to the ‘Principles’ Ray Dalio founder of Bridgewater Associates published:
- I remained wary about being overconfident, and I figured out how to effectively deal with my not knowing. I dealt with my not knowing by either continuing to gather information until I reached the point that I could be confident or by eliminating my exposure to the risks of not knowing.
- While most others seem to believe that learning what we are taught is the path to success, I believe that figuring out for yourself what you want and how to get it is a better path.
- How much do you let what you wish to be true stand in the way of seeing what is really true?
- How much do you worry about looking good relative to actually being good?
- The most important qualities for successfully diagnosing problems are logic, the ability to see multiple possibilities, and the willingness to touch people’s nerves to overcome the ego barriers that stand in the way of truth.
- Know what you want and stick to it if you believe it’s right, even if others want to take you in another direction.
- In a nutshell, this is the whole approach that I believe will work best for you—the best summary of what I want the people who are working with me to do in order to accomplish great things. I want you to work for yourself, to come up with independent opinions, to stress-test them, to be wary about being overconfident, and to reflect on the consequences of your decisions and constantly improve.
THE SUCCESSFUL TRADER … ACCORDING TO MARK DOUGLAS
There is a reason why so few traders succeed. It is not for lack of study or effort or passion. It is not for lack of education or a Bloomberg platform subscription. It is not because only a select few have access to technical “secrets” (a.k.a. indicators). No. So few succeed at trading for the same reason that so few succeed at living an abundant life.
The unsuccessful refuse to think differently when faced with difficulties believing that luck has passed them by. They do not succeed because the want of instant gratification and its fleeting rewards has replaced the need for sustainable, hard fought, earned rewards indicative of a mindset prepared to tackle failure as nothing but a mathematical equation: here is the problem now let’s find the solution.
The mediocre search for easy answers to difficult problems believing that the right answers to their questions are found somewhere “out there”. The successful make difficult decisions where there are no easy answers, questioning whether their perception of what is out there is a distorted reflection of what is inside of them.
The best traders, according to Mark Douglas, think differently than others because they know that what is most important is “how they think about what they do and how they’re thinking when they do it.”
The Crowd Speaks Technical Analysis
Nice write-up
on the benefits of adding some technical analysis to a rational, fundamental worldview by Anthony Bolton, the recently retired manager of the top-performing Fidelity Special Situations fund. A few excerpts (emphasis mine):
My contention is that if you are trying to predict the mass action of thousands of investors, most of whom are investing on a rational or logical basis, you won’t be able to do this by taking the same logical approach as everyone else. (more…)
Phases of Knowledge
You’ve probably heard the saying, “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.”
The path to mastery passes through a window where the intermediate practitioner, getting their first taste of knowledge and experience, knows more than the beginner — but less than they think.
This creates a widening gap between “how much I think I know” and “how much I actually know.”
I’ve never seen this concept better expressed than via the below graphic, created by Simon Wardley: (more…)
Mr.Warren Buffett :Buy and Hold -Failed
From the wires today:
“OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Warren Buffett’s company reported a 40 percent drop in second-quarter profit Friday because the improvement at Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s operating companies couldn’t overcome $1.4 billion in paper losses on derivative contracts. Berkshire’s strong performances from its railroad, insurance and manufacturing businesses was overshadowed by the plummeting value of the Omaha company’s derivatives — many of which are tied to the value of four major stock markets.”
From Buffett himself in 2002:
“The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Central banks and governments have so far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts. In my view, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.”
From Bloomberg recently:
“Buffett’s well known for his criticism of derivatives. Yet Berkshire in recent years has become a big player, with some $60 billion in derivatives contracts. Under any new derivatives regulation, Berkshire would be likely to have to produce collateral for new derivatives contracts it writes. This would limit the attractiveness of new derivatives deals for Buffett, who has boasted that Berkshire rarely does a deal that calls for it to produce collateral. But that’s not why Buffett has been pushing back against the financial reform bill in the Senate. Instead, Buffett says he’s concerned that the legislation would impose collateral requirements on existing contracts — which he says would be illegal. Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., made the same case this week as he defected from the Democrats backing the financial reform bill. Whatever his logic, pushing back on derivatives reform has the interesting side effect of aligning Buffett, with his sterling reputation, with the widely derided Wall Street banks.”
Buy and hold? Buying strong businesses? Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction? Bailouts of many of the components of BRKA? Does anyone have the cajones to criticize Buffett? There has to be at least one emasculated weenie out there who will come on here and tell me that I can’t criticize America’s wealthiest just because he is rich. Right?
The Buffett myth is just that — a myth. If not for the fall 2008 bailouts, he would be on the senior circuit revising history along with Greenspan. Why my stark view on this lovely sunny morning in beautiful Southern California? Cause no matter how many books populate Amazon, all preaching about how you can become the next Buffett, they are all disingenuous fairy tales.