Archives of “Li (surname 李)” tag

rss

China Industrial Production +4.8% y/y (expected 4.8%) Retail Sales -1.8% y/y (expected 0.5%)

  
  Analysis
#  #  #

China activity data for June 2020

  • Industrial Production +4.8% y/y vs. expected 4.8%, prior was 4.4%
  • industrial production YTD -1.3% y/y vs. expected -1.5%, prior was -2.8%
  • Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD -3.1% y/y vs. expected -3.3%, prior was -6.3%
  • Retail Sales -1.8% y/y vs. expected 0.5%, prior was -2.8%
  • Retail Sales YTD -11.4% y/y vs. expected -11.2%, prior was -13.5%

more to come

Here is the list (so far) of the crypto hacked Twitter account

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Accounts hacked so far by the Bitcoin scam, asking you send coins to a bogus address

  •  Bill Gates
  •  Elon Musk
  •  Joe Biden
  •  Warren Buffett
  •  Kanye West
  •  Michael Bloomberg
  •  Apple
  •  Uber
  •  Jeff Bezos
  •  Barack Obama
Tweet looks like this – DO NOT SEND COINS TO ANYONE AT ALL RIGHT NOW until this thing is fixed:
Accounts hacked so far by the Bitcoin scam, asking you send coins to a bogus address

A huge Twitter hack appears to be underway

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Elon Musk and crypto exchanges targeted

The Twitter accounts of many the largest cryptocurrency exchanges and influences appear to have been hacked, along with Elon Musk and others. They’re directing people to make bitcoin donations. Some on the list:
  • Cz
  • Binance
  • Gemini
  • Bitlord
  • Coindesk
  • Justin sun
  • Kucoin
  • Coinbase
  • Charlie lee(Satoshi lite)
  • Gate.io
  • Angelobtc
  • Tron
  • Bitcoin
It’s tough to imagine that the were hacked individually. Rather this looks like it’s something internally via twitter or some third party service involved with twitter. That looks bad for the company.
Elon Musk and crypto exchanges targeted
Let me tell you, if I wanted to make money and could hack Elon’s account, I would be buying TSLA puts/calls, rather than asking for Bitcoin donations.
Update: They got Bill Gates too.

Fauci says will have an effective COVID-19 vaccine by the end of 2020

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Anthony Fauci speaking with Reuters on the coronavirus

  • Says that US will have an effective coronavirus vaccine by year-end
  • Moderna’s vaccine trial results were especially promising
  • He does not think China will be first with a vaccine, at least not by much
Anthony Fauci speaking with Reuters on the coronavirus

Bank of Canada holds rates at 0.25%, as expected

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Highlights of the Bank of Canada rate decision

  • Prior was 0.25% (this is the effective lower bound for Canada)
  • BOC pledges to keep rates at 0.25% until inflation target hit
  • BOC to continue $5B per week in QE; repeats buying will continue “until the recovery is well underway”
  • BOC stands ready to adjust its programs if market conditions warrant
  • Says economic decline “considerably less severe than the worst scenarios presented in the April MPR”
  • BOC sees 40% of activity recovered in Q3 but then “the Bank expects the economy’s recuperation to slow as the pandemic continues to affect confidence and consumer behaviour and as the economy works through structural challenges”
  • Central scenario in in MPR shows economy not likely to return to pre-COVID levels until 2022
  • Sees 2020 GDP down 7.8%, up 5.1% in 2021 and up 3.7% in 2022
  • Says Q2 activity estimated to have fallen about 15% below its level at the end of 2019, economy appears to have bottomed in April
  • Sees US GDP down 8.1% in 2020, up 3.4% in 2021 and up 4.3% in 2022
  • Global GDP forecast down 5.2% in 2020 and up 5.2% in 2021
  • The path for CPI in the next year largely reflects the influence of energy prices
The big news here is this line:
“The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved.”
That’s forward guidance indicating no hikes until 2% inflation is ‘substantially achieved’. That last phrase leaves them some wiggle room but this is conditional forward guidance.
Macklem will hold a briefing at 1500 GMT (11 am ET)
Forecasts in the MPR:
BOC forecasts for developed world

Trump says he is not interested in speaking with China on another trade deal

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

Whiny biatch speaking in a CBS interview Sry, damn autocorrect. Trump speaking in a CBS interview.

So far he has been whining about getting schools reopened and various grievances he has with life.
Comment on China the only one really pertaining to markets, so far at least.
Whiny biatch speaking in a CBS interview Sry, damn autocorrect. Trump speaking in a CBS interview. 

More from Trump:

  • We can impose massive tariffs on China f we want
  • You’ll see more coming on actions towards China
  • China is buying a lot of agricultural products

Heads up for oil traders – OPEC to release June report Tuesday

  
Analysis, Crude
#  #  #  #  #  #

OPEC will release its monthly market report later on Teusday (I donlt don’t have the time sry).

  • will provide OPEC production numbers for June
  • which will show compliance levels so far (with the agreed cuts)
  • preliminary numbers showed compliance for the group was over 100%, aggregated,due to extra output curbs by from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait

Add this to the data agenda for Tuesday 14 July 2020 – China June trade data

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Trade balance, exports and imports data are due from China today for june June 2020

There is no specific time set for the releases, and it has been very unpredictable in past months.

Yuan terms:

trade balance: expected CNY 425bn, prior was CNY 442.75bn

  • Exports y/y: expected +3.5%, prior was +1.4%
  • Imports y/y: expected -4.7%, prior was -12.7%

USD terms:

trade balance: expected $59.6bn, prior was $62.93bn

  • Exports: expected -2.0%, prior -3.3%
  • Imports: expected -9.0%, prior was -16.7%

Florida coronavirus cases 12624 vs 15299 yesterday

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #

Coronavirus data from Florida for July 13, 2020:

  • Florida yesterday set a one-day state record of 15,299 cases (6274 last Monday)
  • Total cases 282,435 vs 269,811 yesterday
  • Residents hospitalized  vs 18,271 yesterday
  • Currently hospitalized +514 to 8038
  • Median age 41 vs 38 yesterday
  • Deaths +35
  • Number of people tested 112,264 vs 142,981 yesterday (48,503 last Monday)
  • Positivity 11.51% vs 11.25% yesterday (14.92% last Monday)
This is worse than expected. Given the usual weekend effect, I would have expected a number below 10,000. However testing was still fairly high.
Go to top