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Major indices close mixed. Dow down. Nasdaq higher.

  
Analysis, US Market
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Dow moves down over -300 points. S&P down after record close yesterday

The major indices are closing mixed.
  • NASDAQ closes with a three day win streak
  • S&P closes lower after yesterday’s record close
  • Dow, S&P close near session lows
  • Dow was down -325 points at the low. Close just off that low level
  • Dow has its worst day in more than two weeks
  • Russell 2000 closes at session lows
  • communications +0.24%, technology +0.19% show gains
  • energy -2.9%,industrials -1.37%, consumer Staples -1.26%, materials -1.26% we the declines

The final numbers are showing

  • Dow industrial average -323.34 points or -0.92% at 34793.06
  • S&P index -20.46 points or -0.46% at 4402.69
  • NASDAQ index up 19.24 points or 0.13% at 14780.53
  • Russell 2000 fell -27.24 points or -1.23% at 2196.34
If you were an investor in RobinHood, you are saying, “what declines?”.
Those shares of the retail broker surged higher today and reached an intraday high of $85, before moving lower. The price still closed at $70.39, up $23.59 or 50.41% on the day.
Recall the shares went public on Thursday at $38 share and close the first day at $34.82.
Other big gainer today included:
  • Novavax, +18.68%
  • Zoom, +6.91%
  • AMD, +5.5%
  • Roblox, +5.39%
  • Snap, +4.82%
  • Tencent, +4.28%
  • Chewy, +3.94%
  • Crowdstrike, +3.87%
  • Nvidia, +2.33%
The biggest Dow gainer (there were only 2 of 30) were:
  • salesforce, +1.26%
  • Nike, +0.42%
Losers today included:
  • AMC, -11.18%
  • GM, -8.95%
  • Koss, -7.17%
  • Worthington industries -5.18%
  • Ford Motor, -4.99%
  • Bed Bath and Beyond, -4.67%
  • Schlumberger, -4.46%
  • Snowflake, -3.95%
  • Gamestop, -3.78%
  • Delta Air, -3.57%
  • Southwest Air, -3.46%
The biggest Dow losers were:
  • Amgen, -6.46%
  • Chevron, -2.26%
  • Dow, -1.99%
  • Walgreens, -1.98%
  • Caterpillar, -1.89%

US stocks close session with mixed results

  
Analysis, US Market
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Dow Jones, S&P give up gains and close in the red. NASDAQ closed mostly higher

The US stock market lost steam into the close with Dow industrial average and the S&P 500 closing in the red and giving up earlier gains. The NASDAQ index squeaked out a small gain on the day.

The final numbers are showing:
  • Dow industrial average -97.11 points or -0.28% at 34838.36
  • S&P index -8.11 points or -0.18% at 4387.15
  • NASDAQ index rose 8.39 points or 0.06% at 14681.07
  • Russell 2000 index fell -10.75 points or -0.48% at 2215.50
As the day went by, lower yields on the back of expectations of slower growth due to the Covid Delta variant, started to weigh on the major indices.  The Dow industrial average was up as much as 256.64 points. The S&P index was up as much as 25.64 points and the NASDAQ index is up as much as 97.7 points before reversing back to the downside and closing near the lows for the day.

Russia raises its inflation, GDP, capex forecasts

  
Analysis, Economy
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Russian economy ministry issues revised forecasts

 

  • 2021 GDP growth forecast up to 3.8% from 2.9%
  • lifts Urals oil price forecast to $65.9/bbl from $60.3/bbl
  • 2021 inflation forecast to 5% from 4.3%
  • 2021 capital investment growth forecast to 4.5% from 3.3%
  • 2021 average dollar/rouble rate to 72.8 from 73.3 seen in April

 

The ministry comments on the higher forecasts:

  • We see the economy is recovering faster than we had expected
  • Our experts say the economic recovery potential is not exhausted yet
On the currency:
  • We all realise that the rouble price should be different at oil prices of $75 per barrel
  • current rouble weakness blamed on sanction risks, OPEC+ uncertainty around global oil output.
Russia’s inflation target is 4%, the latest reading has it at 6.5%. Russia’s central bank is expected to raise its key rate again from 5.5% on July 23.
USD/RUB daily chart:
USD/RUB daily chart

European shares close higher. France’s CAC trades closes at a new high going back to 2000

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Solid week for the major indices as well

The European shares a closing higher with the German DAX rising 1.2% leading the way. The major indices also closed higher for the week.
A look at the provisional closes shows:
  • German DAX, +1.2%
  • France’s CAC +0.3%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +0.7%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.8%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB,  +0.35%

For the week, the major indices also are ending higher on the week

  • German DAX, +1.6%
  • France’s CAC, +1.65%
  • UK FTSE 100, +2.3%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +2.6%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.8%
The CAC index is closing at the highest level since October 2020.
Solid week for the major indices as well

Responses to the Federal Reserve FOMC continue

  
  Analysis
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Responses continue to flow in, this via Westpac, brief summary comments:
  • The FOMC left its policy settings unchanged, and repeated its key guidance messages, as was widely expected. 
  • The statement was a little more upbeat, noting “progress on vaccinations and strong policy support” are helping strengthen economic indicators, including employment. The rise in inflation was acknowledged, but seen as transitory. 
  • The Fed reiterated :”the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations.” QE purchases will remain at at least $120bn per month “until substantial further progress has been made toward” the maximum employment and price stability goals. In Q&A, he said it’s not yet time to start talking about tapering asset purchases.
Response via National Australia Bank:
  • The latest FOMC meeting and press conference from chair Powell has come and gone with no big fireworks, though Treasury yields are lower, as is the USD, after Powell made clear that it was ‘not time yet’ to have a conversation about tapering its $120bn monthly QE bond buying programme and that we ‘are not close to’ the substantial progress toward its employment and price stability goals, that has been set as a conditions for contemplating doing so. 
  • This is despite the FOMC upgrading its economic assessment in the formal post-meeting Statement. This says that ‘indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened (an  upgrade from ‘ have turned up’ in March) and that ‘sectors most adversely impacted by the pandemic have improved’ (versus ‘remained weak’ in March). 
  • The Statement also removed the adjective ‘considerable’ previously placed in front of the comment, repeated, that  ‘risks to the outlook remain’. The Fed chair also continued to stress the expected transitory nature of the pick-up in inflation that currently looks to be underway

Coronavirus – US Chamber of Commerce official sees risk that India could be a drag on the global economy

  
Analysis, COVID-19
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A US Chamber of Commerce official sees risk of a slowdown in India’s economy as a result of the Covid-19 jump, which could be a drag on the global economy.

Headlines via Reuters (perhaps today’s Captain Obvious award?)
  • “We expect that this could get worse before it gets better”
  • a “real risk” the Indian economy would falter given the circumstances
  • “There’s a big concern about the draft on the economy by a devastating, spreading virus in India.”

S&P and Dow close at record levels again

  
Analysis, US Market
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Nasdaq 1.9% from the all time high

The major indices are all closing higher and near highs for the day/week. The S&P and Dow industrial average both closed at record highs. The NASDAQ index is just under 2% away from the all time high.

The major indices also closed higher for the week with the NASDAQ index leading the charge at up 3.12%.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index +31.58 points or 0.77% at 4128.75. The high reached 4129.48 which is the all time high for the pair.
  • Nasdaq +70.878 points or 0.51% at 13900.18. The all-time high price is at 14175.12. The index is 275 points from the all time high putting the index about 1.9% from the all time high
  • Dow rose 298.68 points or 0.89% at 33801.25. That was just off the high for the week at 33810.87 (which is also the all time high).
For the week, the Nasdaq led. The Dow lagged but was still higher. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks fell -0.56%.  The Nasdaq was up 3.12%.
Helping in the US was lower /steady rates despite the rise in rates today. Below are the changes for the week.  The largest decline was in the 5 year sector with a decline of 11.59 basis points. The 10 year is down -6.49 basis points (rates are up about 4 bps today).  Next week the US treasury will be auctioning of reopened 3, 10 and 30 year issues.

Major averages close near unchanged levels

  
Analysis, US Market
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The S&P index did close at a new record high

The major indices are closing their unchanged levels give or take. The broader S&P index traded to a high of 4083.16. That was just short of the all-time high reached yesterday at 4086.23 (but it did close at a new record high).

  • The NASDAQ index is down for the second consecutive day but with only modest declines over each day (the NASDAQ fell -0.05% yesterday and declined -0.07% today)
  • The volatility index (VIX) trades at the lowest level since February 2020. The low reached 16.87% today
  • S&P is up for the fourth of five sessions but only marginally today. The S&P fell -0.10% yesterday.
  • The S&P index did close at a new all-time record high at 4079.95. That took out the high close from Monday at 4077.91.
  • Dow closes higher for the third day in the last four
A look at the final numbers shows;
  • S&P index rose 5.79 points or 0.14% at 4079.73. The high reached 4083.13. The low extended to 4006 8.31
  • NASDAQ index fell -9.536 points or -0.07% at 13688.84. The high reached 13733.03. The low extended to 13653.58
  • Dow rose 15.96 points or 0.05% at 33446.20 . The high reached 33521.76. The low extended to 33347.96
Large cap growth stocks all rose with percentage gains above the averages today:
  • Square, +3.6%
  • Facebook, +2.23%
  • Amazon, +1.72%
  • alphabetic, +1.35%
  • Apple, +1.34%
  • Intel, +1.05%
  • PayPal, +0.95%
  • Microsoft, +0.82%
  • Netflix, +0.45%
The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks did not fare well today. That index fell -37.12 points or -1.64% at 2222.05.

Here’s a BTC opinion – Bitcoin could surge to $300,000 then drop 90%

  
Analysis, BITCOIN
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Comments from Bobby Lee, co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BTCC to CNBC Monday afternoon US time.

  • could soar as high as $300,000 in the current bull market based on its historical patterns
  • (he does add that he was not sure if history would repeat itself)
  • “Bitcoin bull market cycles come every four years and this is a big one”
  • “I think it could really go up to over $100,000 this summer.”
  • warned the bubble will burst after peaking
  • a “bitcoin winter” that could last for years … following its bull run
  • Investors should be aware that bitcoin’s value could fall as much as 80% to 90% of its value from the all-time peak
BTC has dropped in past hours, maybe traders didn’t see the 300K forecast before the 90% drop bit?
Comments from Bobby Lee, co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BTCC to CNBC Monday afternoon US time.

Fed’s Barkin says the dot plot is not FOMC policy

  
  Analysis
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Barkin is the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, he has some comments crossing on the wires.

Speaking in a Bloomberg TV interview.

 

  • you want yields to respond to what happening in the economy
  • yields reflecting good news on vaccines, fiscal aid
  • really hopeful that we’re at the back end of pandemic
  • the Fed’s interest-rate dot plot is not Federal Open Market Committee policy
  • Fed has tools to handle unwanted inflation
  • inflation is not a one-year phenomenon, it’s multi-year
  • expect to see price pressures in 2021
  • expect strong demand, met by some supply-chain issues
  • the US economy will have strong spring and summer
Re that headline I put in the, headline …. the dot plot is part of the Fed’s forward guidance. Barkin’s comments are in line with other comments from Fed officials, they are toeing the party line since Chair Powell laid down the law and told them all to shut up about tapering a month or so back.

 

Barkin is the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, he has some comments crossing on the wires. 
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