Archives of “japanese yen” tag

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Why the US dollar continues to fall

  
  Analysis
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USD/JPY declines below 106.00

USD/JPY is at a six-day low as the pressure on the US dollar mounts. There is some broad-based weakness taking hold. It’s increasingly becoming the default mode in the market to sell US dollars, so long as there isn’t genuine risk aversion.
There’s nothing particularly negative for the US dollar today but there are headwinds:
  1. US election risk
  2. Lack of US stimulus will hurt relative growth
  3. Equity market valuation is richer in the US, better value elsewhere
  4. Long-term monetization/inflation worries
Here’s chart on M2 from Nordea comparing the US and Europe:
USD/JPY declines below 106.00
In the smaller picture, risk sentiment is good today and that’s good enough to undercut the US dollar.
As for USD/JPY, it’s not time to worry yet but the drop in late July is starting to look like a warning shot.
USDJPY

CFTC commitment of traders: EUR longs increase to 200K (all time largest long position).

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC

  • EUR long 200K vs 180K long last week. Longs increased by 20K
  • GBP short 3K vs 15K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 12K
  • JPY long 27K vs 31K long last week. Longs trimmed by 4K
  • CHF long 17K vs 12K long last week. Longs increase by 5K
  • AUD short 1K vs 1K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
  • NZD 0K vs 1K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • CAD short 30k vs 23K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K

Highlights:

  • EUR longs continue to rise and are at new record long position at 200K. The largest short position all time is at -227K
  • GBP position has been whittled down to near unchanged after being short by 36K at the beginning of June 2020
  • AUD and NZD speculative positions are near unchanged
  • CAD shorts are the more or less, the only short currency position (long USD position).
Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC

Japan final Q1 GDP -0.6% q/q

  
Analysis, Economy
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January to March economic growth data from Japan. Old, old news by now.

  • GDP sa q/q -0.6%, prior -0.6%
  • GDP annualised sa q/q -2.2%, prior -2.2%
  • GDP nominal q/q -0.5%, prior %
  • Private consumption -0.8% q/q, prior -0.8%
  • Business spending +1.7%, prior +1.9%

Yen unchanged.

CFTC commitments of traders: EUR longs spike by 32K to a record long level

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC

 

  • EUR long 157K vs 125K long last week. Longs increased by 32K
  • GBP short 25K vs 15K short last week. Shorts increased by 10K
  • JPY long 29K vs 19K long last week. Longs increased by 10K
  • CHF long 8K vs 7K long last week. Longs increase by 1K
  • AUD short 5K vs 0K long last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • NZD short 1K vs 2K last week. NZD switches from long to short. 3K change
  • CAD short 13k vs 17K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
Highlights:
The BIG HIGHLIGHT for the week is in the EUR.  The EUR longs spiked up by 32K to 157K in the current week to a record high for long positions. The move higher is corresponding to higher EURUSD prices. The price of the EURUSD has been up for 6 consecutive weeks.  The long position started to move more to the upside during the May 19 week when the position was at 72K.  The EURUSD during that week was down at 1.0800. The price high today reached to 1.1908 before backing off.  Nice trade for the longs.
Of course, a concern for markets that get too long or short, is that there can be a squeeze the other way if prices start to lose trend momentum.   As a result, be careful of too much of a good thing, but let the technicals tell the story. They have been bullish.
Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC_
The GBP shorts, however, increased by 10K to 25K (still much lower than the EUR longs) while the currency has moved higher.
The JPY longs increased and the USDJPY moved down (higher JPY) into early trading today. However, the price snapped back higher and nearly erased the full move lower this week in a single day.

Not a good look as USD/JPY nears 100 pip loss

  
Analysis, Forex
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USD/JPY wilts even as risk trades rise

The old correlation between the S&P 500 and USD/JPY is dead. Stocks have climbed in the past 20 minutes and the pair is at the lows of the day.
More importantly, the technical pictures is melting as the pair falls below the May low once again. It would take a miracle turnaround to finish back above 106.00 today. With the break lower, there isn’t much to halt a decline to the 2020 lows.
USD/JPY wilts even as risk trades rise

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 2.22% at 22,784.74

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Asian equities buoyed to kick start the new week

Nikkei 13-07

It has been a solid session for Asian equities, with the Nikkei closing at a one-month high while we are also seeing the Hang Seng post 1.1% gains and the Shanghai Composite also seen higher by 1.9% currently.

The positive spillovers from US trading at the end of last week is helping, but also the fact that US futures are keeping more optimistic so far today.
Some market participants are pointing to this Pfizer, BioNTech vaccine story as a factor, following the more positive results that were reported two weeks ago here.
In any case, risk is on and the market is looking to keep the more positive mood going into European trading today. As such, the dollar is weaker across the board alongside the yen, with AUD/USD hovering around 0.6980 currently.

3 reasons why USD/JPY is heading back down to 105

  
Analysis, Forex
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A note via ING forecasting lower for USD/JPY, to 105 in three months

(1) Japan’s GPIF probably will not pour money into overseas bonds when $/JPY is above 110
(2) the rally to 112 was largely down to USD funding strains, which should reverse into April
(3) Japan’s large current account surplus will see JPY favoured in a recession.
Its a detailed note, but this snippet on point2:
  • Amongst many fire-fighting measures, the Fed and the US Treasury have since re-introduced schemes to support the CP market directly (CPFF & MMLF) and measures to support investment grade corporate issuance (PMCCF and SMCCF)
  • Along with the promise for unlimited QE, the Fed has managed to introduce some calm into money markets
  • We expect even calmer conditions once the Japanese financial year-end has passed (March 31st) and the Fed starts its CPFF program in April. A turn-around in the basis swap should take some upside pressure off USD/JPY. 

Eight culprits for yen weakness

  
Analysis, Forex
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What has dropped the yen to the worst levels since May

Bloomberg lays out eight factors:
  1. Dollar demand seen from global central banks especially in 2-year and 5-year notes
  2. Japanese moves ahead of year end
  3. Short covering and a run on stops
  4. A surge in yen options trading on the break of 110.00 and related to coronavirus fears
  5. An unwind of shorts in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY
  6. Chinese measure to support parts of its economy reduced safe-haven demand
  7. Technical momentum
  8. Worries about a recession in Japan
Many of these overlap but that’s the buzz.

Markets wake up: Oil drops, gold jumps, yen bid

  
Analysis, Gold / Silver
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Risk aversion kicks in

Risk aversion kicks in
Gold is up $14 in the first minutes of trading while WTI crude has fallen 2.5% to $52.85. S&P 500 futures are down 1%. The US 10-year note future contract is up 11 ticks.
The yen is bid but not as much as I anticipated. NZD/JPY is down 50 pips to 71.69 and is the biggest percentage mover. USD/JPY is down 45 pips to 108.83.
Get ready for a wild week.

USD/JPY falls to four-day low as bond yields sink further on the day

  
Analysis, Forex
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USD/JPY falls to a low of 108.80, below the 200-hour moving average

USD/JPY H1 13-11

As the risk mood continues to soften, it is dragging yen pairs lower now as we move towards US trading. 10-year Treasury yields are now down by over 7 bps to 1.862% and that is helping to keep the yen bid at the moment.
There isn’t really any fresh catalysts for the continued nudge softer in the risk mood today but as mentioned earlier, the lack of progress in US-China trade talks appear to be breeding contempt and is starting to weigh on markets.
For USD/JPY, price is now tracking under the 200-hour MA (blue line) as sellers look to seize near-term control. The 7 November low @ 108.65 will be the next key support level to watch out for in case of a push lower later today.
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