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Trading Psychology Lesson-Naked Truth

A good analyst is someone who can figure out that markets are going from Point A to Point B;

A good trader is someone who can navigate the path from Point A to Point B;

A good investor is someone who can weather the path from Point A to Point B;

Good analysts often are not good traders.

Good traders often are not good investors.

Good investors often are not good traders.

Good traders and investors often need to hire good analysts.

So much of success boils down to knowing who you are and accepting that.

Links For Traders -Investors

Interesting reads:

Scott Nations, The Complete Book of Option Spreads and Combinations-Book Review

If you trade options, you’d do well to have Scott Nations’ Complete Book of Option Spreads and Combinations (Wiley, 2014) in your reference library. It’s an intermediate-level book that explains the structure of more spreads than most people will ever trade but that they should understand nonetheless. A case in point: a conversion or a reversal, a combination that is rarely executed as a package but that “a smart retail trader might end up having on.” (p. 209) It’s better to know in advance what this position is and how to deal with it.
There’s an abundance of information available online about option spreads and combinations, and Nations of necessity covers much of the same territory. But he proceeds more analytically, and he deals with issues that most online descriptions ignore, such as ways to mitigate wide bid/ask spreads. Take, for instance, the long call condor. Nations looks at an AAPL call condor that, using midpoint pricing, costs 18.87 and that, buying on the ask and selling on the bid would cost 0.63 more. What if we were to replace the in-the-money call spread “with something that’s out-of-the-money and has bid/ask spreads similar to the bid/ask spreads of these other out-of-the-money options?” That is, what if we sold a put spread with the same strikes instead of buying that call spread—and again sold at the bid and bought at the ask? Instead of paying a 0.63 penalty, we now pay only 0.27. This “new, magical structure” is an iron condor. (pp. 201-202)
In eleven chapters this book deals with vertical spreads, covered calls, covered puts, calendar spreads, straddles, strangles, collars, risk reversal, butterflies, condors and iron condors, and conversion/ reversal. Every strategy is encapsulated in cheat sheets and, more importantly, is illustrated with examples, complete with tables and figures. Here, for instance, is the graph of a vertical spread he analyzes, which includes the probability of profitability—something he explains how to calculate on the previous page.
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20 Trading Thoughts

1.    You have to have passion for learning to trade; passion is the energy that you need to take you to your goals.

2.    You have to have the perseverance to keep going after you want to give up.  90% of new traders quit when they were very frustrated while 100% of successful traders didn’t quit until they reached their goals

3.    New traders spend too much time looking for what to trade instead of focusing on who they are as traders.  You have to know who you are as trader first then you can start building your trading system.

4.    Traders have to be able to manage their stress by trading inside their current comfort zone. Traders have to grow themselves and trade size step by step.

5.    The vast majority of new traders fail simply because they did not do their homework before they started trading.

6.    A trader has to build a trading system that matches their own personality and risk tolerance levels.

7.    A trader that chooses to be master a specific type of trading method or trading vehicles has a much better chance of success than the traders that just dabble in many different things and never make much progress.

8.    A trader has to write a good trading plan while the market is closed to guide their trading while the market is open.

9.    A trading plan has to be followed with discipline to have a chance at success.

10.    A trader has to manage their behavior by acting consistently with their own rules. (more…)

A FAIR APPROXIMATION FOR A SUCCESS FORMULA

A fair approximation for a success formula would be:

  1. Pursue multiple sources of well-being and success;
  2. Express those through activities that bring favorable returns with minimal wear-and-tear;
  3. Stay flexible and rebalance your life periodically as needs and circumstances change.

In other words, life success requires savvy asset management. It’s not about pouring yourself into the next big opportunity or going with a consensus flow. Rather, success hinges upon deeply understanding the factors that create returns and finding the right expressions and blendings of these.

Life is more than a succession of unconnected trades. At its best, life is a portfolio of investments that generate positive and meaningful returns. That can only happen, however, if we take the reins and thoughtfully manage our life’s assets.

15 Ways to Manage Trader Stress

  1. Only risk 1% of total trading capital per trade with stop losses and proper position sizing. Proper positions sizing makes the emotional impact of any one trade only one of the next one hundred a totally different mental perspective than an all in/have to be right Hail Mary trade.

  2. Only trade a  position size you are comfortable with.
  3. Trade a method or system you believe in based on back testing of a positive expectancy.
  4. Know where you will get out of a trade before you get in.
  5. Only trade with a detailed trading plan.
  6. Believe in your ability to follow your trading plan. YOu must have faith in yourself to lower your stress levels.
  7. Know yourself as a trader and only take your kind of trades. Take trades that will leave no regrets because they were good trades regardless of out comes. (more…)

Paul Tudor Jones Trend Following Wisdom

Paul Tudor Jones was featured in Market Wizards and is one of the successful trend followers. In the Market Wizards book there are some interesting quotes & trading tips that are important for all stock traders & trend followers.

Quoting Paul Tudor Jones

“I become quicker and more defensive. I am always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money.”

“Risk control is the most important thing in trading.”

“Don’t be a hero”.

“Don’t have an ego.”

“Always question yourself and your ability”.

“I am more scared now that I was at any point since I began trading, because I recognize how ephemeral success can be in this business. I know that to be successful, I have to be frightened. My biggest hits have always come after I have had a great period and I started to think that I knew something.”

“One of my strengths is that I view anything that has happened up to the present point in time as history. I really don’t care about the mistake I made three seconds ago in the market. What I care about is what I am going to do from the next moment on. I try to avoid any emotional attachment to a market.”

“I never apologize to anybody, because I don’t get paid unless I win.”

“When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion.”

“Advice: don’t focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.”

“Trading gives you an incredibly intense feeling of what life is all about.”

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options or forex can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

Nassim Taleb’s Risk Management Rules of Thumb

Rule No. 1- Do not venture in markets and products you do not understand. You will be a sitting duck.

Rule No. 2- The large hit you will take next will not resemble the one you took last. Do not listen to the consensus as to where the risks are (that is, risks shown by VAR). What will hurt you is what you expect the least.

Rule No. 3- Believe half of what you read, none of what you hear. Never study a theory before doing your own observation and thinking. Read every piece of theoretical research you can-but stay a trader. An unguarded study of lower quantitative methods will rob you of your insight.

Rule No. 4- Beware of the nonmarket-making traders who make a steady income-they tend to blow up. Traders with frequent losses might hurt you, but they are not likely to blow you up. Long volatility traders lose money most days of the week. (more…)

Managing Emotions

The hardest thing about trading is not the math, the method, or picking the right stock, currency, commodity, or futures contract.  The most difficult thing about trading is dealing with the emotions that arise with trading itself. From the stress of actually entering a trade, to the fear of losing the paper profits that you are holding in a winning trade, and most importantly dealing with the emotional lows of a string of losses or the highs of many consecutive wins the bottom line is how you deal with those emotions will determine your long term success in trading more than any other one thing.

To manage your emotions first of all you must trade a robust trading methodology that is profitable and you have to know that it will be a winner in the long term if you stay disciplined. You also must trade your method with proper position sizing and risk management to keep the volume down on your emotions and ego. If you have that the next step is the management of your emotions.

You must understand that every trade is not going to be a winner and not blame yourself for equity drawdowns if you are trading with discipline.

Do not bet your entire account on any one trade, in fact risking only 1% of your total capital on any one trade is the best thing you can do for your stress levels and to bring your risk of ruin to virtually zero. (more…)

The best pieces of trading advice

Here is some great trading advice I have gathered around the web. These were either answers from real traders to the question “What is the best trading advice you ever received?” Or it was advice given be successful traders when asked “What one piece of advice would you give to traders?”  There are some gems in here.

Don’t treat trades like their actual cash, separate the thought of money lost and focus on the next gain.

Always use stop losses.

Don’t trade with funds you can’t afford to lose.

Don’t be obsessed by indicators .

Always, always,  put in a trailing stop and take your profit.

Decide what kind of trader you wish to be. Do you want to be a day-trader, a short term trader, or a longer term trader?

The Holy Grail of investing/trading is risk management. If you don’t have an exit strategy or proper position sizing, you are gambling. I recommend all traders spend 90% of their time perfecting risk management, and success will come with time. -Damien Hoffman

Cut losses, cut losses, cut losses. If I followed my own advice, my email would be unlisted or a Hawaii address. -Howard Lindzon (more…)

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