Archives of “Investment” tag

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Tech Gained $1.7 Trillion in 2017

  
Analysis, Education
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“Between the FAANG quintet and China’s rivaling BAT companies, gains in the world’s top technology shares are nearing a whopping $1.7 trillion in market value this year.
That’s more than Canada’s entire economy, and exceeds the worth of Germany’s biggest 30 companies put together. The eight tech giants — Facebook Inc., Amazon Inc., Apple Inc., Netflix Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc., as well as their Asian peers Baidu Inc., Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. — have amassed as much money in 2017 as Pacific Investment Management Co., one of the world’s biggest fund managers, has done in about 46 years.” (emphasis added)

The chart nearby shows some comparison veresus, DAX, Pimco and Canada!
 
Monster Tech Gains 2017 YTD
click for ginormous graphic

Active vs Passive Catalysts

  
  Education
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Catalysts have the potential to change investors and traders’ expectations. There are two distinctive types of catalysts in the stock market – active and passive.

Active catalysts tell you when to buy or sell.

Passive catalysts tell you what is the potential behind a move once an active catalyst is introduced. Their role is to explain intelligently the reason behind a move.

The only active catalyst is Price action. Simply put, it does not matter how smart you are or how genius your investing thesis is. Unless and until the market agrees with you, you won’t make a cent. (more…)

10 Greedy Characteristics

  
  Education
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1.  You find yourself forgetting your rules.  Which during day trading is the last thing you want to happen since your profit margins are often based on smaller movements.

2.  When reviewing your pre-market plays, every stock looks like a winner.

3.  Shortly after opening your position you see a price target that is much higher but you have no justification for the target.

4.  Trading feels stressful all of the time.  From the minute you get up in the morning, until you close your last position.  Instead of approaching trading with a calm head, you have a constant feeling of fighting and living on the edge.

5.  You stop reviewing your trades.  If someone were to ask your win/loss percentage over the last week you would have no idea; however, you would know how much money you need to make for the week.

6.  You abandon limit orders and start placing more and more trades at market.  Most of the times this will occur when you are trying to get into the position, because you can’t stand the idea of not being in on the winning trade.

7. You start to over trade.  If you normally put on 3 trades per day, you will now find yourself placing 6 or more trades per day.  This sort of behavior will run its course as the increase in trading activity while abandoning your day trading rules always points to losing money. (more…)

10 Wall Street Pick-up Lines to Avoid

  
  Education
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“If your proposed marriage contract has 47 pages, I suggest you not enter.”

This quote by Charles Munger hammers home the role of trust in an investment relationship.Michael Kitces of Nerds Eye View wrote a post entitled “What is the philosophy of your financial planning firm? It deals with what an advisor doesn’t believe in and what he/she wouldn’t recommend to clients. Engaging an advisor whose philosophy is based on trust, and who chooses to be a fiduciary for clients has many benefits for the average investor. Unfortunately, most financial advisors are not fee-only RIAs. Those who are only looking to have a “suitable relationship” with their customers may structure their business philosophy in a different manner. Many advisory firms have embraced a culture of sales and monthly quotas. Clearly that is a philosophy, but it is not necessarily a good one for the end user. If you find yourself surrounded by financial types using any of these types of pitches, be very afraid.

1. “Its like a CD.”

2. “Buying on margin will greatly increase your returns.”

3. “This fund did really well last year.”

4. “As long as the music is playing, you have to get up and dance.”

5. “Do you want the confirmation sent to your office or your mansion?”

6. “I have a very strong work ethic. The problem was my ethics in work.”

7. “I’ve got the guts to die. What I want to know is have you got the guts to live?”

8. “Greed is good.”

9. “Don’t pitch the b*tch.”

10. “Screw the credit derivative desk, I don’t understand half the sh*t they do anyway.” (more…)

You Should Have All 4 Elements To Be Successful

  
  Education
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Trading is a very complex undertaking and if you miss one element you will likely eventually fail  in this endeavor.

Here are the four different elements we must have working for us for success in trading:

The Knowledge

If we don’t do the homework to know what we need to know we will fail due to ignorance. Understanding historical price action, reading books by and about the best traders, seminars, mentor-ships, and  systems testing is all part of the homework we must do to get the needed knowledge.

The Resources

While trading with a small account is a good place to start it is not a good place to stay. Traders must be adequately capitalized for meaningful trading. We must have an affordable broker that does not charge bloated commissions and gives great execution on orders. A trader must have a platform and charting service that is adequate for his trading style. Trading a small account with an expensive broker with poor execution is a path to eventual failure.

The Desire (more…)

Bull vs Bear Market

  
  Education
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Bull Markets: Fear of missing out.
Bear Markets: Fear of being in.

Bull Markets: Everything I buy is going up — I’m a genius.
Bear Markets: Everything I buy is going down — I’m an idiot.

Bull Markets: See, fundamentals always win out.
Bear Markets: See, technicals and sentiment rule the markets.

Bull Markets: I knew I should have had more of my portfolio in stocks.
Bear Markets: I knew I should have had more of my portfolio in bonds.

Bull Markets: That guy’s been calling for a crash for years — he’s an idiot.
Bear Markets: That guy just called the crash — he’s a genius. (more…)

The Foundation of Technical Analysis

  
  Education
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First Principles

  • Markets are highly random and are very, very close to being efficient.
  • It is impossible to make money trading without an edge.
  • Every edge we have is driven by an imbalance of buying and selling pressure.
  • The job of traders is to identify those points of imbalance and to restrict their activities in the markets to those times.
  • There are two competing forces at work in the market: mean reversion and range expansion.
  • These two forces express themselves in the market through the alternation of trends and trading ranges.

The Four Trades

  • Traders usually view market action through charts, which are useful tools, but are only tools.
  • Trades broadly fall into with-trend and countertrend trades. These two categories require significantly different mind-sets and approaches to trade management.
  • There are only four technical trades. Some trades are blends of more than one trade, or an application of one trade to a structure in another time frame, but these are just refinements. At their root, all technical trades fall into one of these categories:
  • Trend continuation.
  • Trend termination.
  • Support and resistance holding.
  • Support and resistance failing.
  • Each of these trades is more appropriate at one phase of the market cycle than another. If you apply the wrong trade to current market conditions, you will lose.

(more…)

10 Quotes by Mark Douglas

  
  Education
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reading“I know it may sound strange to many readers, but there is an inverse relationship between analysis and trading results. More analysis or being able to make distinctions in the market’s behavior will not produce better trading results. There are many traders who find themselves caught in this exasperating loop, thinking that more or better analysis is going to give them the confidence they need to do what needs to be done to achieve success. It’s what I call a trading paradox that most traders find difficult, if not impossible to reconcile, until they realize you can’t use analysis to overcome fear of being wrong or losing money. It just doesn’t work!”
-Mark Douglas

“There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that defines an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like “right” and “wrong” or “win” and “lose” no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.”
-Mark Douglas

The less I cared about whether or not I was wrong, the clearer
things became, making it much easier to move in and out of positions,
cutting my losses short to make myself mentally available to take the next opportunity.
– Mark Douglas (more…)

The Crash of 1929 -Video

  
Education, Video
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Here is a link to the transcript of this documentary.

Narrator: At sea and on land, everyone seemed to be making money. It was a stampede of buying. And major speculators like John Jacob Rascob whipped up the frenzy. He told readers of The Ladies’ Home Journal that now everyone could be rich. September 2nd, Labor Day. It was the hottest day of the year. The markets were closed and people were at the beach. A reporter checked in with astrologer Evangeline to ask about the future of stock prices. Her answer: the Dow Jones could climb to heaven. The very next day, September 3rd, the stock market hit its all-time high.

Ben Karol, Former Newspaper Delivery Boy: My father and I had an ongoing discussion about the stock market. And I used to say, “Pop, everybody’s getting rich but you. You know, you work so hard and you’re never going to make a nickel. All you do is you keep delivering these newspapers and that’s about it. The guy who’s shining shoes is in the stock market, the grocery clerk is in the stock market, the school teacher’s in the stock market. The teller at the bank is in the stock market. Everybody’s in the stock market. You’re the only one that’s not in the stock market.” And he used to sit and laugh and say, “You’ll see. You’ll see. You’ll see.”

Narrator: On September 5th, economist Roger Babson gave a speech to a group of businessmen. “Sooner or later, a crash is coming and it may be terrific.” He’d been saying the same thing for two years, but now, for some reason, investors were listening. The market took a severe dip. They called it the “Babson Break.” The next day, prices stabilized, but several days later, they began to drift lower. Though investors had no way of knowing it, the collapse had already begun

(more…)

10 Questions for Trend Followers ,Yes Just Answer Them

  
  Education
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Now, let’s get practical. Answer the following five questions, and you have a trend following trading system:

1. What market do you buy or sell at any time?
2. How much of a market do you buy or sell at any time?
3. When do you buy or sell a market?
4. When do you get out of a losing position?
5. When do you get out of a winning position?

Said another way (Bill Eckhardt inspired):

1. What is the state of the market?
2. What is the volatility of the market?
3. What is the equity being traded?
4. What is the system or the trading orientation?
5. What is the risk aversion of the trader or client?

You want to be black or white with this. You do not want gray. If you can accept that mentality, you have got it.

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