Archives of “intuition” tag

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Mastering Impulse and Fear

  
  Education
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The Trader/Subscriber

1. When what I am trading is not moving, I need to get better at sitting on my hands. Something in me keeps pushing me to pull the trigger — and it often wins.

2. For every trade, I need to place my stop at the “If the price gets here, I was wrong” location and no closer. If the size of that stop is just too scary, I need to pass on the trade. This is the way he sets his stop.

This is  our response to this Subscriber

I think trading live for you is important. Though good for learning methodology, learning psychology does not happen when trading simulated. Different worlds. When risk enters the picture, our hidden assumptions about uncertainty comes to light — if you’re looking for them. In your scheme this is how you are discovering your placement of stops from what I can see. They appear to be a mixture of standard textbook knowledge of stop strategy and your emotional reaction to them.  (more…)

Intuition & Vision in Trading

  
  Education
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 Intuition – A qualitative virtue recognized by few and held by even less. Our intuition is the byproduct of the analysis performed by our subconscious. It acts much like a muscle and requires exercise to develop and grow. Like a muscle, neglect can cause atrophy. Traders with a strong intuition built on a strong trading strategy put themselves in an ideal position to achieve consistent success in the market. Over time, traders can feel the energy a market gives off and can execute trades from this. It is an invaluable tool in one’s trading arsenal.

Vision – While total clairvoyance as to future price movement is unrealistic. It is my goal as a trader to assimilate as much information as possible with the goal of playing out scenarios that tie in together. It’s not always easy to do, yet understanding trading does not occur in a vacuum and markets do exhibit funny things get you mentally prepared to deal with these outlier events. Those that can think for themselves and need not rely on templatized news releases for their ideas usually put themselves in a position to benefit from their forward thinking.

We have heard many times about leaders who saw an industry trend before it happened. This was no accident. It came as a result of their understanding of their field and what could change it for the better. Traders who gain an understanding of how things can potentially play out and factor that into their trading strategy go a long way to keeping their objectivity when things unfold in a fast and volatile market.

6 Rules of Michael Steinhardt

  
  Education
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1. Make all your mistakes early in life: The more tough lessons you learn early on, the fewer (bigger) errors you make later. A common mistake of all young investors is to be too trusting with brokers, analysts, and newsletters who are trying to sell you something.

2. Always make your living doing something you enjoy: Devote your full intensity for success over the long-term.

3. Be intellectually competitive: Do constant research on subjects that make you money. Plow through the data so as to be able to sense a major change coming in the macro situation.

4. Make good decisions even with incomplete information: Investors never have all the data they need before they put their money at risk. Investing is all about decision-making with imperfect information. You will never have all the info you need. What matters is what you do with the information you have. Do your homework and focus on the facts that matter most in any investing situation.

5. Always trust your intuition: Intuition is more than just a hunch — it resembles a hidden supercomputer in the mind that you’re not even aware is there. It can help you do the right thing at the right time if you give it a chance. Over time, your own trading experience will help develop your intuition so that major pitfalls can be avoided.

6. Don’t make small investments: You only have so much time and energy so when you put your money in play. So, if you’re going to put money at risk, make sure the reward is high enough to justify it.

Ed Seykota-Quotes

  
  Education
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If you can’t take a small loss, sooner or later you will take the mother of all losses.

There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are very few old, bold traders.

Dramatic and emotional trading experiences tend to be negative. Pride is a great banana peel, as are hope, fear, and greed. My biggest slip-ups occurred shortly after I got emotionally involved with positions.

I prefer not to dwell on past situations. I tend to cut bad trades as soon as possible, forget them, and then move on to new opportunities.

The elements of good trading are: 1. Cutting losses, 2. Cutting losses, and 3. Cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.

Trying to trade during a losing streak is emotionally devastating. Trying to play “catch up” is lethal.

I set protective stops at the same time I enter a trade. I normally move these stops in to lock in a profit as the trend continues. (more…)

Desire and Fear

  
  Education
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Desire and fear alternate in the minds of traders as they go through the day.  But let me ask you whether desire or fear dominates your thoughts and feelings as you trade? 

For many traders the primary emotion is fear.  They fear loss: losing profits, losing money, losing equity and even their margin.  Some fear losing their touch, their feel for the market, their focus, their luck, the respect of their boss, colleagues, or mate, or worse, their own self esteem.

Other traders are flooded with the emotion of desire.  They look forward to what the day will produce.  They like the thrill of the chase.  They have a sense of unlimited potential and abundant opportunities for profit.  They anticipate improving their skills, intuition, and understanding as they go through the trading day and week.

Keep in mind that desire is not greed.  Greed is an inordinate wanting.  It is excessive desire and comes from a sense of scarcity, a feeling that there is not and will not be enough.  Desire is healthy: greed is unhealthy.

What you feel depends upon your mental focus.  Do you place your conscious and unconscious attention on the possibility of loss or the probability (hopefully) of gain? (more…)

7 Crucial Points for Traders

  
  Education
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  1. You don’t choose the stock market; it chooses you.  A little bit of early trading success can have a profound effect on a person’s soul.  If it does choose you, you’ll have to accept that your life and investing will become forever connected.
  2. Your methodology must provide an unshakeable foundation that you believe in totally, and you must have the conviction to trade based upon it.   If your belief is tentative or if you don’t have complete faith in your methodology, then a few bad trades will destabilize and erode your confidence. 
  3. A calm mindset that can focus on the execution and not on the outcome is what produces profits.  It takes total emotional control.  You must maintain your balance, rhythm and patience.  You need all three to stay in the game.
  4. The markets are always conniving with ingenious techniques to get you to lose your patience, to get you frustrated or mad, to bait you to do the wrong thing when you know you shouldn’t.  A champion doesn’t allow the markets to get under his skin and take him out of his game.
  5. Like a great painting, all good trades start with a blank canvas.  Winning traders first paint the trade in their mind’s eye so that their emotional selves can reproduce it accurately with clarity and consistency, void of emotions as they play it out in the markets. (more…)

Six Rules of Michael Steinhardt

  
  Education
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Michael Steinhardt was one of the most successful hedge fund managers of all time. A dollar invested with Steinhardt Partners LP in 1967 was worth $481 when Steinhardt retired in 1995.

The following six rules were pulled out from a speech he gave:

1. Make all your mistakes early in life: The more tough lessons you learn early on, the fewer (bigger) errors you make later. A common mistake of all young investors is to be too trusting with brokers, analysts, and newsletters who are trying to sell you something.

2. Always make your living doing something you enjoy: Devote your full intensity for success over the long-term.

3. Be intellectually competitive: Do constant research on subjects that make you money. Plow through the data so as to be able to sense a major change coming in the macro situation.

4. Make good decisions even with incomplete information: Investors never have all the data they need before they put their money at risk. Investing is all about decision-making with imperfect information. You will never have all the info you need. What matters is what you do with the information you have. Do your homework and focus on the facts that matter most in any investing situation. (more…)

Intuition

  
  Education
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I have this interesting article I found. This is something we normally discuss in the 3-day live class. Read this real quick and as soon as your done, sit back and realize what just happened.

I cdnuolt blveiee that I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd what I was rdgnieg!

I have this interesting article I found. This is something we normally discuss in the 3-day live class. Read this real quick and as soon as your done, sit back and realize what just happened.

I cdnuolt blveiee that I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd what I was rdgnieg!

THE PHAOMNNEAL PWEOR OF THE HMUAN MNID

Aoccdrnig to a rseearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn’t mttaer in what oredr the ltteers in a word are, the olny iprmoatnt tihng is Tahtthe frist and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can still raed it wouthit a porbelm. This is Bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but The word as a wlohe.

Amzanig huh?

Now I’m tinkihng aobut all the tmie I wtsead in sochol lrenanig how to slpel……

What were you just reading? Nothing. Those were not words, they were letters mixed together that spelled absolutely nothing. Somehow each of us were able to create something out of nothing!? (more…)

Artificial Intelligence, Chess, and the Stock Market

  
  Education
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In 1997 chess grandmaster Gary Kasparov met the Singularity. And the Singularity won.

In 1985 Kasparov easily beat a chess-playing computer, even though he resorted to a trick to out-Kasparov the machine’s Kasparov program. Eleven years later, though, the chess legend struggled with Deep Blue, a computer with even more powerful processing power. But even Kasparov couldn’t compete with Deep Blue once its development team doubled the processing power a few years later.

Kasparov was beat, but he drew new lessons from the run-in that he details in New York Review of Books. These lessons might help you become a smarter–and less anxious–trader.
According to Kasparov, the exponential gain in technology didn’t ruin the game; it actually had some surprising aftershocks. 

First, the game became more global. With access to computer programs that could train students available anywhere and everywhere, students far from the chess epicenter of Russia began to crop up.

Kasparov says:

“With the introduction of super-powerful software it became possible for a youngster to have a top- level opponent at home instead of need ing a professional trainer from an early age. Countries with little by way of chess tradition and few available coaches can now produce prodigies.” (more…)

Trade Management & Psychology (One Liners )

  
  Education
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  • Let winners run. While momentum is in phase, the market can run much further than might be expected. Do not exit winners without reason!
  • Be quick to admit when wrong and get flat.
  • Sometimes a time stop is the right solution. If a position is entered, but the anticipated scenario does not develop, then get out.
  • Remember: if one thing isn’t happening the other thing probably is.
  • Flat is a legitimate position.
  • Be careful of correlations. Several positions can often equal one large position bearing unacceptable risk. Respect the potential for correlations to change—you have to deal with today’s correlation, not the correlation that existed when you put on the position.
  • The crowd is not always wrong.
  • Most trading problems come from an incorrect perception of risk. If you’re trading with an edge, the “risk” of any trade being a loser is not actually a risk at all.
  • Intuition is real, but all traders develop it. Intuition, alone, is not an edge.
  • Intuition must be trained properly. It is very easy to develop incorrect intuition due to cognitive biases and the nature of the market.
  • Mental capital is just as important as financial capital. Protect both.
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