Archives of “Hydrogen” tag

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Russia says first batch of coronavirus vaccine expected within two weeks

  
  Analysis
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The vaccine clinical test results will also be published in that time frame

This according to Russian health minister, Mikhail Murashko. On the headline, I reckon he is referring to mass production. It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out over the coming months and how it will impact other countries to produce “breakthroughs”.

 

Meanwhile, the country itself just reported another 5,102 new virus cases and that sees the total confirmed cases exceeding 900,000 (~180,000 active cases). Another 129 deaths were also reported, bringing the tally on that front to 15,260 persons.

The weekly oil inventory data is due out at the bottom of the hour

  
  Analysis
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Private data last night showed a bigger than expected drawdown of crude inventories

The Department of Energy will release their weekly inventory data.

The private API numbers from last night showed:
  • crude oil -8.587M vs -3.35M est.
  • gasoline -1.748M vs -1.3M estimate
  • distillates +3.824M vs +100K est
  • Cushing +1.63M
The price of September WTI crude oil futures are up $1.68 or 4.03% at $43.39. The price shot through the 50% retracement of the 2020 move lower at $41.71.  The contracts 200 day moving average is at $43.92. The high price today has reached $43.52

China’s Global Times says “New cold war will not stop US decline”

  
  Analysis
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An opinion piece in state news organ Global Times

  • What is deeply worrying is the unpredictability, volatility and desperation of Trump. Driven by his fear of losing the presidential election in November, Trump sees nothing is off the table as far as he is concerned. Anything is possible. 
Of course, there is plenty more, link here
Over the weekend Pompeo spoke of further action against Chinese firms:
  • US to widen action against Chinese tech groups beyond TikTok

An opinion piece in state news organ Global TimesI think I am going to have find a cartoon of Xi and Trump engaged in a more violent sport rather than this tame effort.

USD facing more questions about its status as the primary reserve currency

  
Analysis, Forex
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Here is an item on the US dollar from Bloomberg that may be of interest.

It cites analysts from Credit Agricole and Mizuho
  • USD accounts for more than 60% of global reserves
  • the most widely used currency for international transactions
  • But it risks ceding ground to the euro after European Union leaders agreed on a 750 billion euro stimulus package that enhances the appeal of the shared currency and euro-denominated assets
CA say that the recovery fund will facilitate diversification out of the US dollar
offering liquid, high-rating, euro-denominated debt
Here is an item on the US dollar from Bloomberg that may be of interest.
I’d not be getting too gung-ho on this, and note that the analysts say ‘risks ceding ground’, they are not writing off the dollar.

Former Fed chairs Yellen and Bernanke give Congress views on Covid 19 in response to the economic crisis

  
  Analysis
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Former Fed chair’s testify on Covid 19 in response economic crisis

Former Fed chair’s Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke are testifying to Covid 19 and response to economic crisis. There comments are appearing on the Brookings institute blog
  • in many respects this recession is unique
  • forecasting recovery is difficult
  • controlling the spread of the virus must be 1st priority for restoring more normal levels of economic activity
  • members of Congress, local leaders and other policymakers need to do all they can to support testing and contact tracing, medical research and sufficient hospital capacity.
  • They must work to ensure that businesses, schools and public transportation have what they need to operate safely
  • pace of recovery could be slow, uneven
  • the longer the recession last the greater the damage will reflect on household and business balance sheets
  • the depth of the recession may leave scars
  • depending on the course of the virus, some restructuring of the economy may be needed
  • Fed likely to give a for guidance on the lift off
  • the yield curve control possible, not certain
  • the financial system is in much better shape today than it was during the financial crisis
  • new same as measured by Congress are necessary including a comprehensive plan to support medical research, testing, contact tracing and hospital capacity, enhanced unemployment insurance should be extended, and Congress should provide substantial support to state and local governments
The full report can be found HERE

Add this to the data agenda for Tuesday 14 July 2020 – China June trade data

  
  Analysis
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Trade balance, exports and imports data are due from China today for june June 2020

There is no specific time set for the releases, and it has been very unpredictable in past months.

Yuan terms:

trade balance: expected CNY 425bn, prior was CNY 442.75bn

  • Exports y/y: expected +3.5%, prior was +1.4%
  • Imports y/y: expected -4.7%, prior was -12.7%

USD terms:

trade balance: expected $59.6bn, prior was $62.93bn

  • Exports: expected -2.0%, prior -3.3%
  • Imports: expected -9.0%, prior was -16.7%

Saudi Aramco has reduced the volume of crude it will supply to Asia

  
  Analysis
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Reuters report citing four unnamed sources that the world’s largest oil exporter has cut August heavy crude supply for some Asian refiners

  • at least four buyers in Asia
  • cuts were mainly for Arab Heavy crude
No further details in the Reuters report.
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