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Jackson Hole agenda to be published later today, Thursday 26 August 2021

The Kansas City Federal Reserve symposium will be a ‘virtual’ affair, August  27 – 30.

We do know that the main event are opening remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, due at 9 am CT/10 am ET/1400 GMT on August 27.
I posted on this earlier in the week, but for those who missed it, the full agenda will be made available at 7 pm US Central time (CT), which is 8 pm US ET on August 26
0000 GMT August 27
I’ll get the schedule of speakers and times posted once its made available in a little over 24 hours time.

Key events and releases next week. Jackson Hole symposium the highlight

Feds Powell to speak at 10 AM ET on Friday August 27

Next week’s key events and releases will be highlighted by the Jackson Hole symposium which will take place from August 26 through August 28.  The main speech made by Fed chair Powell, will take place on August 27 at 10 AM ET/1400 GMT.
The market will be focused on any time one projections from the Fed chair for taper.  There have been a number of Fed officials who have expressed the desire to begin the taper sooner rather than later.  However, Feds Kaplan – one of the more hawkish Fed Presidents – dialed back a bit on concerns if the Delta variants starts to impact production.
Other key events include:
Monday, August 23:
  • Australia flash manufacturing and services PMI 7 PM ET/2300 GMT
  • France flash manufacturing and services PMI.  3:15 AM ET/715 GMT. Estimate 57.1 manufacturing. 56.2 services
  • German flash manufacturing and service PMI, 3:30 AM ET/730 GMT. Estimate 65.1 manufacturing and 61.0 services
  • UK flash manufacturing and services PMI. 4:30 AM ET/830 GMT.  Estimate 59.5 manufacturing and 59.0 services
  • US flash manufacturing and services PMI. 9:45 AM ET/1345 GMT.  Estimate 62.8 manufacturing and 59.1 services
Tuesday, August 24
  • New Zealand retail sales, 6:45 PM ET Monday/2245 GMT Monday. Estimate 2.0% versus 2.5% last month. Core retail sales 1.9% versus 3.2% last month
  • US new home sales, 10 AM ET/1400 GMT. Estimate 698K versus 676K last month
  • US Richard Fed manufacturing index. 10 AM ET/1400 GMT. Last month 27.0
Wednesday, August 25:
  • German Ifo business climate.  4 AM ET/800 GMT. Estimate 100.6 versus 100.8 last month
  • US durable goods orders. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT.  Estimate -0.2% versus +0.9% last month. Core durable goods +0.4% estimate versus +0.5% last month
  • Weekly crude oil inventories. 10:30 AM ET/1430 GMT. Crude oil has been down for seven consecutive days
Thursday, August 26.
  • US preliminary GDP 3Q. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. Estimate 6.6% versus 6.5% for the first cut
  • US unemployment claims.  8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT.  Estimate 355K versus 348K last week
  • Start of Jackson Hole symposium
Friday, August 27
  • Australian retail sales, 9:30 PM ET Thursday/1330 GMT.  Estimate -2.0% versus -1.8% last month
  • US Core PCE price index MoM, 8:30 AM ET.  Estimate 0.3% versus 0.4% last month
  • Fed chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole symposium.  10 AM ET/1400 GMT
  • US revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment.  Estimate 10 AM ET/1400 GMT.  Estimate 71.2 versus 70.2 preliminary
Saturday, August 28
  • Jackson Hole symposium

US President Biden says he will not be telling the Federal Reserve what to do

US President Biden says he has not spoken with Fed Chair Powell

  • “I’m not going to do the kinds of things that have been done in the last administration, either talking to AG…or the Fed telling them what they should and shouldn’t do”
  • “The Federal Reserve is an independent operation.”
The end of an era …   🙁
US President Biden says he has not spoken with Fed Chair Powell

Dow and S&P close at record levels. NASDAQ erased its earlier declines

Major indices off highs as well

The Dow and S&P indices both closed at record highs after Fed Chair Powell and Fed continue to steer the soft policy course with not a lot of concern for inflation and expectations for stronger growth.

The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index up 11.41 points or 0.29% at 3974.12. The high reached 3983.87. The low extended to 3935.74.
  • Nasdaq up 53.63 points or 0.4% at 13525.20. The high reached 13595. The low extended to 13272.69
  • Dow rose 189.42 points or 0.58% at 33015.37.  The high reached 33047.58. The low extended to 32782.18
some big gainers today included:
  • Alcoa, +7.72%
  • Celsius, +6.37%
  • Crowdstrike holdings, +6.18%
  • Transmedic, +5.91%
  • Draft Kings, +5.21%
  • General Motors, +5.15%
  • United Airlines, +4.43%
  • Roku, +4.31%
  • AMC, +3.92%
  • Micron, +3.72%
  • Tesla, +3.71%
  • Marriott, +3.56%
  • General Electric, +3.5%
  • Rackspace, +3.5%
  • Boeing, +3.26%
  • Caterpillar, +3.16%
  • American Airlines, +2.82%

big losers today included:

  • Uber, -4.25%
  • First Solar, -2.81%
  • Black Knight, -2.06%
  • Rocket, -2.0%
  • Under Armour, -1.71%
  • Palantir, -1.56%
  • FireEye, -1.49%
  • Rite Aid, -1.46%
  • CVS, -1.35%
  • Dollar Tree, -1.27%
  • Walgreens, -1.08%
  • target, -1.03%
  • Chewy, -1.0%
  • Mastercard, -1.0%
  • Intuit, -0.94%
  • Stryker, -0.93%
  • Snowflake, -0.78%
  • HomeDepot, -0.77%

The FOMC statement from the September 2020

The full statement from the FOMC September 2020 meeting

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Economic activity and employment have picked up in recent months but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. Overall financial conditions have improved in recent months, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning and help foster accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses. (more…)

Former Fed chairs Yellen and Bernanke give Congress views on Covid 19 in response to the economic crisis

Former Fed chair’s testify on Covid 19 in response economic crisis

Former Fed chair’s Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke are testifying to Covid 19 and response to economic crisis. There comments are appearing on the Brookings institute blog
  • in many respects this recession is unique
  • forecasting recovery is difficult
  • controlling the spread of the virus must be 1st priority for restoring more normal levels of economic activity
  • members of Congress, local leaders and other policymakers need to do all they can to support testing and contact tracing, medical research and sufficient hospital capacity.
  • They must work to ensure that businesses, schools and public transportation have what they need to operate safely
  • pace of recovery could be slow, uneven
  • the longer the recession last the greater the damage will reflect on household and business balance sheets
  • the depth of the recession may leave scars
  • depending on the course of the virus, some restructuring of the economy may be needed
  • Fed likely to give a for guidance on the lift off
  • the yield curve control possible, not certain
  • the financial system is in much better shape today than it was during the financial crisis
  • new same as measured by Congress are necessary including a comprehensive plan to support medical research, testing, contact tracing and hospital capacity, enhanced unemployment insurance should be extended, and Congress should provide substantial support to state and local governments
The full report can be found HERE

Key events and releases for next week’s trading

Fed Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday

The key event next week her until Friday at 10 AM ET/1400 GMT, when Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.  The title of his speech is “Challenges for Monetary Policy”.

Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole economic policy symposium

The meeting minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday at 2 PM ET/1800 GMT.   The market is very sensitive to what the Fed might do at their next policy meeting in September. There is a 100% chance for a rate cut, with the market currently pricing in a 32% chance for 50 bps.
Other key events and releases for the week include:
Tuesday:
  • RBA monetary policy meeting minutes. 9:30 PM ET (Monday/0130 GMT
  • Canada manufacturing sales.  8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
  • FOMC member Quarles speaks. 6 PM ET/2200 GMT
Wednesday
  • Canada CPI. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
  • US FOMC meeting minutes.  2 PM ET/1800 GMT
Thursday
  • France flash manufacturing/service PMI.  3:15 AM ET/0715 GMT
  • German flash manufacturing/service PMI.  3:30 AM ET/0730 GMT
  • EU flash manufacturing/service PMI.  4 AM ET/0800 GMT
  • US flash manufacturing PMI. 9:45 AM ET/1345 GMT
  • Jackson Hole economic policy symposium begins. Day 1
Friday:
  • New Zealand retail sales.  6:45 PM ET/2245 GMT
  • Canada retail sales. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
  • Fed chair Jerome Powell speak. 10 AM ET/1400 GMT
  • Jackson Hole economic policy symposium. Day 2
Saturday:
  • Jackson Hole economic policy symposium. Day 3