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48 Trading Laws

  
  Education
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1. Never outshine the master. (You can trade better than your mentor, just don’t expect him to like it. You’ll also learn more from people who you help, than from those who you work against.)

2. Never put too much trust in friends. Learn how to use enemies. (The only one you can trust as a trader is yourself and your own decisions. When the herd is against your positions, find something that is misunderstood, overlooked, or not fully recognized in the current stock price.)

3. Conceal your intentions. (Limit orders are good for the novice and undisciplined, but the market makers will never let you pick off the bottoms and tops using these.)

4. Always say less than necessary. (Talk is cheap and being concise is a good thing. It’s ok to keep some things you learn and strategies you create all to yourself.)

5. So much depends on reputation – guard it with your life. (Wall Street watches where the smart money is going at all times and herd-like patterns typically follow. Find those with the best reputation and figure out what they’re doing now. It will help unlock some secrets to their success.)

6. Court attention at all cost. (The key is to be ahead of the tape before Wall Street takes notice. Find stocks that few are looking at which offer tremendous growth prospects. They’ll be tomorrow’s winners, not the stocks you hear so much about right now.)

7. Get others to do the work for you, but always take the credit.(It’s ok to use others’ research and opinions, but realize that none of these can serve as a substitution for common sense and developing your own edge in the market. What is already known and published by others has already been acted upon no matter what you may think or have been told. Assume you’re always the last to know.)

8. Make other people come to you – use bait if necessary.(Success breeds popularity. If others think that they can learn or profit from you, you’ll never be lonely. However, with respect also comes responsibility to act in the best interests of others, many times before your own.)

9. Win through your actions, never through argument. (Don’t waste time convincing others on message boards how good or bad a stock is and/or telling people how smart you were because of good calls you’ve made in the past. Instead, trade the stock and make your profit. Talk will never pay your bills. Show others by demonstration, not by time wasting chatter.)

10. Infection: avoid the unhappy and unlucky. (This is right on the money. I couldn’t have said this better myself. Who you surround yourself with will ultimately determine your destiny. Marry for love, choose your friends carefully, and spend time with people who’ve been more successful and who are much smarter than you. Good and bad emotional states are as infectious as a disease.)

11. Learn to keep people dependent on you. (If you tell everyone everything you know, they’ll end up knowing more than you know. Having others dependent on you will also serve as great motivation, especially when times are tough and you need a reason to work harder than ever before.)

12. Win through your actions, never through argument. (At the end of the day, all that matters is that you make good trades or investment decisions. There’s lots of hype in this business and you should run, not walk, from anyone who spends more time talking than learning.)

13. Use selective honesty and generosity to disarm your victim.(Sorry, I’m not in agreement with this. In my view, you have to be honest with yourself and others at all times. In addition, generosity is always a good thing, especially when it is done without the desire of getting something in return. Having good Karma through generous acts also go a long way in keeping the trading gods on your side!)

14. When asking for help, appeal to people’s self-interest, never to their mercy or gratitude. (Sad, but true. If you can help others, they’ll be far more likely to help you. I know I always make a tremendous effort to help those who’ve helped me in the past.)

15. Pose as a friend, work as a spy. (You can find out more about people and companies you invest in by having friends who have specialized knowledge about certain industries. Their unique insight can be a powerful edge if you can get it. Sometimes a simple phone call or email to someone who works in the business will tell you much more than any chart or balance sheet.)

16. Crush your enemy totally. (When you’re right in a trade or investment and things are going well, don’t back off UNTIL you have good reason to sell.)

17. Use absence to increase respect and honor. (Knowing when not to trade is a skill few possess. Take vacations and breaks away from the market. It will only empower you to return refreshed, relaxed, and well-motivated. Remember, we trade to live, not live to trade. Achieving balance in your work and personal life will lay the foundation for long-term success.)

18. Keep others in suspended terror: cultivate an air of unpredictability. (It’s good to mix it up from time to time to relieve trading/investing boredom. If you think you’re in a rut, make some changes and go find something you can get excited about again.)

19. Do not build fortresses to protect yourself – isolation is dangerous. (Take time to bounce ideas off of people who are smarter than you. At all times, seek out opinions that are against you instead of with you – you’ll learn a great deal more. And, remember, no one is right all of the time. But some people are more right than others.)

20. Know who you’re dealing with – do not offend the wrong person. (As a small investor, it is best to avoid picking fights with market elephants (i.e. institutions, hedge funds) who think they know your stock better than you do. They have the power to move the market and your stock for longer than you have time or money to fight it.) (more…)

Four Steps to Taking Bigger Risks

  
  Education
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1. Create an information edge so that you are ahead of the curve.

 

2. Have a thesis that you can support with data.

 

3. Assess the sources of the data.

 

4. Trade on the basis of this data against others in the marketplace.

 

The trader who understands risk will pay attention to corporate numbers and guidance and will try to analyze the relevance of these numbers to where the company stands relative to its major competitors. He is also able to differentiate between companies and does not simply trade noise or daily movement.

 

The best traders focus on the company balance sheet, earnings reports, and an assessment of the growth prospects of the company. They also compare the company on a relative valuation basis to other companies in the same space. They consider the state of the economy and any significant macroeconomic variables, such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the cost of energy, and the cost of doing business, and try to assess the nature of the market at the time.

To improve your data, ask yourself: Is this a market that is trading on fundamentals, or is it trading on macroeconomic variables and market sentiment? Then try to get a handle on relevant short-term catalysts — fresh earnings news, changes in top executives, new technology, for example — that may influence the market’s perception of the value of a stock. Once you take these steps, you can try to make a calculated bet on the impact this data will have on the price of the stock. (more…)

The Secret to Trading Success

  
  Education
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secret1The most important thing you must learn in every market cycle  is where the money is flowing. It is flowing into the companies where the earnings are growing. As long as mutual funds have capital in flows instead of net out flows then they must put new money to work investing in stocks. If you want to make your job as a trader much easier then find where the flow is going. Mutual fund managers can not go to an all cash position they can only move money around. A bear market sinks most stocks because managers have to sell everything to raise money to redeem shares. In an uptrend they have to buy stocks with the incoming money flows. Where does this money go? It goes into the sectors and stocks that are in favor due to increased earnings in a sector and individual stocks that are dominating their sector and changing the world in the process. You want the leaders not the has been. You want the best the market has to offer. Where are consumers dollars flowing into? That is where the money is going. What companies have the best growth prospects? The stock can only grow in price if the underlying company does. Mutual fund managers are the biggest customers in the market when they start buying a stock that increases huge demand and price support.

Your job is to follow the big money, shorting in bear markets, going long in bull markets. Following the trend of what is in favor. Do not fight the action, flow with it.

Quit having opinions and start being a detective looking for the smart money, the fast money, the big money and where it is going now.

S&P Lowers Italy Outlook To Negative

  
Analysis, Education
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First Credit Agricole, now Italy….Maestro: the EUR take down orchestra is reaching the fortissimo cadenza. Next up: the glissando.

Overview

  • In our view Italy’s current growth prospects are weak, and the political commitment for productivity-enhancing reforms appears to be faltering.
  • Potential political gridlock could contribute to fiscal slippage.
  • As a result, we believe Italy’s prospects for reducing its general government debt have diminished.
  • We have therefore revised the rating outlook on Italy to negative, implying a one-in-three chance that the ratings could be lowered within the next 24 months.
  • We have also affirmed the ‘A+/A-1+’ sovereign credit ratings on Italy. (more…)

Top ten reasons you know China has a financial bubble on its hands

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Edward Chancellor, author of the seminal book on financial speculation and manias “Devil Take The Hindmost,” is now turning his eyes to China.  He sees a number of red flags which point to excess in China.

Chancellor writes:

In the aftermath of the credit crunch, the outlook for most developed economies appears pretty bleak. Households need to deleverage. Western governments will have to tighten their purse strings. Faced with such grim prospects at home, many investors are turning their attention toward China. It’s easy to see why they are excited. China combines size – 1.3 billion inhabitants – with tremendous growth prospects. Current income per capita is roughly one-tenth of U.S. levels. The People’s Republic also has a great track record. Over the past thirty years, China’s Gross Domestic Product has increased sixteen-fold.

So what’s the catch? The trouble is that China today exhibits many of the characteristics of great speculative manias. The aim of this paper is to describe the common features of some of the great historical bubbles and outline China’s current vulnerability.

Everyone knows there is extreme levels of excess. The latest report from Andy Xie on local governments shows that governments are now depending on asset prices for revenue, much as they did in places like California during America’s housing bubble.

How can we identify a speculative mania? Chancellor says:

bubbles can be identified ex ante, as the economists like to say. There also exists an interesting, if rather neglected, body of research on leading indicators of financial distress. A few years ago, many of these indicators were pointing to rising economic vulnerability in the United States and other parts of the globe. Today, those red flags are flying around Wall Street’s current darling, The People’s Republic of China.

James Rickards thinks this is the greatest bubble in history. Even Sino-enthusiast Stephen Roach is pointing to a bubble in China. He just thinks the government will be able to prevent its dragging down the real economy.

That’s because Beijing was vigilant in preventing asset and credit bubbles from spilling over into the real side of the Chinese economy. This was very different from the Japan endgame of the late 1980s, where the confluence of equity and property bubbles led to a massive overhang of excess capacity.

Roach’s confidence sounds an awful lot like blind faith in the Chinese authorities to me – exactly the opposite of what Roach’s former colleague Andy Xie is saying.

Chancellor includes this blind faith in the 10 signposts of manias and financial crises (very reminiscent of Kindelberger, by the way).

  1. “Great investment debacles generally start out with a compelling growth story.”

     

    100% yes. Check.

  2. “Blind faith in the competence of the authorities.”

     

    See Roach’s comments above or read Goldilocks is not sleeping in America anymore; she’s now in China. Check.

  3. “A general increase in investment is another leading indicator of financial distress. Capital is generally misspent during periods of euphoria. Only during the bust does the extent of the misallocation become clear.” (more…)

The 10 Commandments

  
Education, Life
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1. Thou shall not go against the trend.
If it be down, let it be down. The market is bigger and stronger than you. 
Follow the market but be one step ahead of the crowd.
2. Thou shall not follow the herd instinct
Just because many people are buying a certain stock does not mean you should follow suit. If people want to buy rubbish stocks, that is their bad luck. Don’t make it yours.
3. Thou shall treat the market as a business, not a casino
The stock market is not meant to be a casino and you should not be there to gamble. 
4.Thou shall not buy high-debted and no-earnings stocks
All companies that folded are highly geared with negative earnings. Don’t buy rubbish shares; don’t buy somebody’s liabilities.
5. Thou shall only buy solvent companies with good-growth prospects
Present earnings are important, but future earnings are more important. That’s why we have companies selling at high PER (Price earnings ratios).
6. Thou shall not be overconfident
Overconfidence leads to overtrading. Once you overtrade, you may not be able to control your own emotion. Fear may set in when the market is not going the way you expect it. It may disrupt your plan, turning your profitable trade into a loss. 
7. Thou shall invest within the comfort zone
Don’t be too greedy; don’t play with borrowed money. Debt is a disease. It can cause you a lot of problem if you are not careful.
8. Thou shall be patient
The market is designed to transfer money from the impatient to the patient. You must have very good reasons before you switch counters. Very often, the shares you sell move up faster than the shares you buy.
9. Thou shall be disciplined
Don’t change your strategy at the eleventh hour. If you have placed a stop-loss in your chart, don’t remove it unless it is replaced with a trailing stop-loss.
10. Thou shall be knowledgable
Investment in knowledge pays the best dividend. No one is so skillful that he cannot better his best. Keep learning for knowledge is boundless

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