1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position! Ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin!
2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.
3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.
4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is too low. Nor can we know what price is too high. Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed cheap many times along the way.
5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many.
6. Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.
7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds as they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones.
8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect gaps in our nearly thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually very important.
9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In good times even errors are profitable; in bad times even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it.
10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market’s technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade. (more…)
Archives of “gaps” tag
rssCut Losses Short
Cut losses short is the sister rule to the let profit run, and is usually just as difficult to implement. In the same way that profitability comes from a few large winning trades, capital preservation comes from avoiding the few large losers that the market will toss your way each year. Setting a maximum loss point before you enter the trade so you know before-hand approximately how much you are risking on this particular position is relatively straightforward. You simply need to have a exit price that says to you this trade is a loser and I will exit before it gets any bigger. Due to gaps at the open, or limit moves in futures we can never be 100%
certain that we can get out with our maximum loss, but simply having the rules, and always sticking to it will save us from the nasty trades that just keep on going and going against our position until we have lost more than many winning trades can make back.
If you have a losing position that is at you maximum loss point, just get out. Do not hope that it will turn around. Given that trades are either winners or losers, and this one is shouting Loser at you, the chances that it will turn around and become a large winner is tiny. Why risk any more money on this losing trade, when you could simply close it out (accept the loss) and move on. This will leave you in a much better place financially and mentally, than holding the position and hoping it will go back your way. Even if it did do this, the mental energy and negative feelings from holding the losing position are not worth it. Always stick to your rules and exit a position if it hits your stop point.
20 Rules for Traders (Must Read )
1. Forget the news, remember the chart. You’re not smart enough to know how news will affect price. The chart already knows the news is coming.
2. Buy the first pullback from a new high. Sell the first pullback from a new low. There’s always a crowd that missed the first boat.
3. Buy at support, sell at resistance. Everyone sees the same thing and they’re all just waiting to jump in the pool.
4. Short rallies not selloffs. When markets drop, shorts finally turn a profit and get ready to cover.
5. Don’t buy up into a major moving average or sell down into one. See #3.
6. Don’t chase momentum if you can’t find the exit. Assume the market will reverse the minute you get in. If it’s a long way to the door, you’re in big trouble.
7. Exhaustion gaps get filled. Breakaway and continuation gaps don’t. The old trader’s wisdom is a lie. Trade in the direction of gap support whenever you can. (more…)
Characteristics of Bear Market
- Sellers are in control
- Oversold often stays oversold for a long time
- Markets drop a lot faster than they go up
- Bear markets burn and churn accounts with long only exposure
- Volume and liquidity can dry up but price can still drop significantly
- ‘Cheap’ can get a lot ‘cheaper’
- Hope is slowly destroyed
- Vicious bear market rallies try to suck in traders to trap them
- Expect lots of gaps to the downside
- It takes a long time until market participants throw in the towel
This is appropriate trading behaviour during bear markets:
- Either in cash or short
- Sell the rallies mentality
- Do NOT buy the dips
- Do not even think about going long if you are not an active and experienced trader
This explains almost everything…
Are we addicted to being right? Is being thought of as being right more important to us than actually being right?
You tell me…
From the Harvard Business Review:
In situations of high stress, fear or distrust, the hormone and neurotransmitter cortisol floods the brain. Executive functions that help us with advanced thought processes like strategy, trust building, and compassion shut down. And the amygdala, our instinctive brain, takes over. The body makes a chemical choice about how best to protect itself — in this case from the shame and loss of power associated with being wrong — and as a result is unable to regulate its emotions or handle the gaps between expectations and reality. So we default to one of four responses: fight (keep arguing the point), flight (revert to, and hide behind, group consensus), freeze (disengage from the argument by shutting up) or appease (make nice with your adversary by simply agreeing with him).
All are harmful because they prevent the honest and productive sharing of information and opinion. But, as a consultant who has spent decades working with executives on their communication skills, I can tell you that the fight response is by far the most damaging to work relationships. It is also, unfortunately, the most common.
Being prepared
Make a list of everything that can go wrong and determine how you will respond to that situation. That will be the key to your success – knowing how to respond to the unexpected.”
Ask 3 essential questions:
1. Why am I taking this particular trade? ( is it part of carefully prepared plan, or is it an emotional reaction; what is the catalyst behind the move and does it have the potential to sent the stock’s price higher; are there other better trading alternatives for my money)
2. What if a am wrong? (figure out where and when I will exit, before I initiate the trade; where is my stop loss and does it makes sense to be put there; how much am I risking? How am I going to protect my capital against “unexpected” gaps)
3. What if I am right? (how am I going to protect my profits; where I would exit and why)
Remember that good trading is all about managing risk. If you are entering a position without knowing where you are getting out when you’re wrong, then you’re sunk before you begin.
Long or Short Position
Do you need to long or short the market today? If you’re a day trader, forget this question and ignore this post. But if you’re a positional player, perhaps having a holding period of at least 5 sessions, the above question is necessary.
Let us ponder.
1. What are your chances of success (initiating a trade that will eventually turn into a satisfactory profit)? Since you’re going to hold for several sessions, possibly facing several opening gaps along the way, might as well establish a position that you’re going to sleep with. So, unless you get the price you’re comfortable with, stay aside. Particularly practical with long holidays.
2. Is this your original plan? Are you trading according to your overall strategy or purely intraday impulse? I don’t think its very difficult to tell the difference. If you trade base on intraday impulse, you get a little more excited than usual.
3. ‘I have been dormant for some time, and I seriously need to do something’. The degree of this itchiness varies according to individuals. If you come from a day trading background, you’ll have a tougher time adjusting. After all, the mindset of ‘If I don’t do anything, I am not going to make anything either’ is in every human’s mind. Think about it. Position trading involves much passiveness, so technically, after establishing a position, you are dormant in some way.
4. ‘I am sure this is a solid short term opportunity’. I think this is the mother of all trading sin. Of course, this does not apply to day traders. But if you’re now a positional trader, stay a positional trader. Learn to let go the small fish.
22 Trading Rules
1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position…. ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin!
2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.
3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.
4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is “low.” Nor can we know what price is “high.” Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed “cheap” many times along the way.
5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many.
6. “Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent,” according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.
7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds… they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones.
8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect “gaps” in our nearly thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually very important.
9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In “good times,” even errors are profitable; in “bad times” even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it.
10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market’s technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade. (more…)
What As A Trader You can Control and What You Can not ?
We can control:
How much we risk per trade.
How big a position size we take.
What time frame we trade.
What market we trade.
Our style of trading.
Whether we stick with our trading plan or go off of it.
If we honor our stop losses and trailing stops.
How we react to a winning or losing trade.
We can not control:
Whip saws when the trend reverses on us. Gaps in opening prices both up and down. Headline risk. Natural disasters. Whether a trend continues or reverses the moment we open a position. Whether any individual trade wins or loses. How many winning or losing trades we have in a row. The battle for your long term trading success is won or loss in your head. The decision to whether keep going after losing money or to quit is made at the point of maximum frustration with the markets. To keep going you have to keep positive, and keep trading. Knowing the difference between you making a mistake or the market simple not matching your style will go a long way in keeping down your stress and negative self talk.Trading Do's and Dont's
In no particular order of importance
- Forget the news, remember the chart. You’re not smart enough to know how news will affect price. The chart already knows the news is coming.
- Buy the first pullback from a new high. Sell the first pullback from a new low. There’s always a crowd that missed the first boat.
- Buy at support, sell at resistance. Everyone sees the same thing and they’re all just waiting to jump in the pool.
- Short rallies not selloffs. When markets drop, shorts finally turn a profit and get ready to cover.
- Don’t buy up into a major moving average or sell down into one. See #3.
- Don’t chase momentum if you can’t find the exit. Assume the market will reverse the minute you get in. If it’s a long way to the door, you’re in big trouble.
- Exhaustion gaps get filled. Breakaway and continuation gaps don’t. The old traders’ wisdom is a lie. Trade in the direction of gap support whenever you can.
- Trends test the point of last support/resistance. Enter here even if it hurts.
- Trade with the TICK not against it. Don’t be a hero. Go with the money flow.
- If you have to look, it isn’t there. Forget your college degree and trust your instincts. (more…)