Archives of “Financial system” tag

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BOJ March monetary policy meeting minutes – full text

  
  Analysis
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Bank of Japan Minutes not shedding too much further light on policy deliberations

Headlines via Reuters:

 

  • members agreed YCC exerting intended policy effect
  • some members said review confirmed some fluctuations in bond yields won’t diminish impact of monetary easing
  • some members said must scrutinise financial system developments due to accumulating side-effects of easing on banking system
  • members agreed BOJ must respond flexibly, effectively without hesitation to changes in economic, price and financial developments
  • a few members said appropriate to stress anew that excessive falls in super-long bond yields could hurt economy in long run

 

 

The full text is here if you wish

 

Bank of Japan Minutes not shedding too much further light on policy deliberations

Building Winning Algorithmic Trading Systems-Kevin J. Davey :Book Review

  
  Education
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kevin

On balance expert systems trump human experts, hence the drive to make trading more systematic and mechanical. The problem is that Building Winning Algorithmic Trading Systems, the title of Kevin J. Davey’s new book (Wiley, 2014), can be tough. Davey recounts his sometimes gut-wrenching journey “from data mining to Monte Carlo simulation to live trading” and provides traders with useful information that will help them avoid his mistakes.

The author joins a rather small fraternity of systems developers who have shared their thoughts, for better or worse, with the reading public. I think here—and this list is in no way meant to be exhaustive—of Howard Bandy (Quantitative Trading Systems), Tushar Chande (Beyond Technical Analysis), Urban Jaekle and Emilio Tomasini (Trading Systems), Perry Kaufman (Trading Systems and Methods), Robert Pardo (The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies), and Thomas Stridsman (Trading Systems That Work).

The strength of Davey’s book is that it covers the entire process of designing, developing, testing, trading, and monitoring a system. It also includes Easy Language code for three sample strategies, and on the password-protected companion website (the password is given in the book) there are five helpful spreadsheets.
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Trading Strategies for Success

  
  Education
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A great excerpt from “Trading Rules: Strategies for Success” by William Eng. It’s a great reminder that market prediction is a fool’s errand:

When you buy something, you want it to go up. When you sell something, you want it to go down. The chance of entering the trade correctly is small, but the chance of exiting the trade correctly is smaller. The chance of being right on both entering and exiting is the smallest. With such diminishing odds of coming through with a completely correct and, therefore, profitable trading campaign, the fewer decisions you make in the markets, the more profitable your trading should be. How many people actually get to sell at the top or buy at the bottom? At most, a handful in each reversal area. First, you must be a market follower, once the market has told you want it wants to do. If the market is a raging bull, you have no alternative but to buy. If it is bearish, you have no alternative but to sell every time you get the opportunity. Let the market tell you what to do. To do otherwise is to try to control the markets-something that is only reserved for God and natural disasters. Secondly, selling at the top and buying at the bottom does not guarantee profits. How many times have you heard of traders who managed to sell near the highs or buy near the bottoms, only to miss the ensuing move completely.

THREE LEGS OF SUCCESSFUL TRADING

  
  Education
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If you ever read any book on trading you would notice that every author our there talking about three most important things of successful trading and investing are:

  1. Trading edge
  2. Money management
  3. Discipline or psychology

Depending on the book one is reading one of those three are emphasized more or less. If you read book on technical analysis author will say that having edge is most important, and even if you have PhD in psychology if you don’t have proper edge you will not be able to make money.

If you read book on psychology again author will tell you that you can have best trading system on the world if you are not able to take signals you will not be successful trader and that you must make system that will suit your personality.

Finally if you read book on money management, author will tell you that even if you have best system in the world and having best discipline in the world if you risk too much of your capital on each trade you will probably ruin your account and the game will be over.

That post made me think about is it really like that, can we represent those three characteristic as pyramid. Is one more important than the other?
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Why Traders Have Problems

  
  Education
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Today I read another article that went along these lines- here are some excerpts:

On why traders have problems:

No, it is not your fear of losing, it isn’t your inability to read the market correctly, nor is it your lack of charting knowledge that causes your trading difficulties.

In a nutshell: The number one reason for all your problems revolves around the fact that you have reality back to front.”

The author then goes on to explain what they mean – that our mind is focused on the wrong things- that we are weighed down by preconditioning.

 The presented solution:

“First of all you must let go of the idea that you need to fix your trading. No, you don’t need to fix your trading, in fact, you don’t really need to fix anything. How can you? You are looking at old stuff that was created yesterday. However, you do need to fix the way you look at your life in general. This requires that you learn a thing or two about how you generate reality, learn a few basic things about quantum physics and understand how this applies to your trading and indeed to your life.

Your refusal to do this and instead carry on with the same old tried and tested paradigms, expecting different results in your trading account, is akin to placing a plaster on a festering wound.”

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5 Ways -Traders are Right ,But …. Still Lose Money.

  
  Education
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  1. You enter your trade correctly and it goes in your favor, BUT… you do not have the right exit strategy to capture your profits and they evaporate due to not having a trailing stop or waiting to long to exit to bank those profits. Sometimes winners even turn into big losers win not managed correctly. You have to have a plan to take profits while they are there.
  2. You enter the right trade BUT… at the wrong time, you either exit not allowing your trade enough time to work or you are stopped out but do not have a plan to get yourself back in the trade with the right set up. The right trade with the wrong timing pays nothing.
  3. You have the right entry and it goes in your favor BUT.. you pick the wrong stock option to express your trade. If you pick an option with a high implied volatility your trade has to overcome that vega priced into the option, after an expected earnings event that vega value will be priced out and you need the move in intrinsic value to make up that difference. With a far out in time stock option you need the price to move enough in the underlying in the time period of the option to make up the theta cost of time embedded in the option. It is crucial to understand the option pricing model to make the right option trades to express your time period and expected move. Sometimes options also do not have the liquidity in some stocks,or far out time frames, or far out of the money strikes. Getting in and out of an illiquid  option trade can be very expensive.
  4. You enter correctly BUT… get stopped out too soon because your position size is just too big and either you stop out from a monetary loss above your risk threshold or your fear of big losses stops you out. Trade the right size for your risk tolerance and give yourself some wiggle room.
  5. Your trade can be perfectly timed and executed and it can immediately go in your favor BUT… an unexpected news headline about your company, interest rates, commodity, or macro can still cause you to lose. Nothing you can do about this one but move on the next trade. The other four can be great lessons in how to be a winner the next time around.

Overconfidence & Greed

  
  Education
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What most traders often don’t realize until it is too late is how quickly one can lose a lot of money in a single trade often with disastrous consequences.  More often than not this painful experience comes from poor risk management following a period of successful trading. It is natural of course. We are pattern seeking mammals and when something starts working for us we get confident in our abilities and quickly forget we know very little what the market or a given stock may do at any given moment. In short: We easily become overconfident.

It is after a period of successful trading that traders tend to loosen up on good intentioned rules of discipline. They start thinking in term of dollar signs as opposed to the trade discipline. In short they think they can fly. “Look how much money I would have made if I had traded x % of my portfolio”. Stop yourself right there. While it is tempting to play mind games like this no good will come of it. Why? Because you just stepped overtly into the realm of one of the greatest sins of trading:

Once you get greedy you will start abandoning necessary discipline. Nobody, I repeat nobody, no matter how smart they think they are has a fail proof system or process or secret trading technique that guarantees 100% success. I surely don’t. Neither does Goldman Sachs or anybody else. While there may be some HFT firms out there that are trying to algo their way to a perfect system I have news for you: You are not an HFT or an algo. You are an individual trader and as good as you may be: You will have losing trades, things will go against you and oddly enough this will happen when you are at your most vulnerable: When you are overconfident, greedy and overexposed. Something curious tends to happen though when the losing trade occurs:

10 Options Trading Pitfalls To Avoid

  
  Education
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  1. The first question to ask in any option trade is how much of my capital could I lose in the worst case scenario not how much can I make. You can lose a high percentage of the capital you have in an option trade so keep it small in comparison to your total account size. I suggest never risking more than 1% of your trading capital on any one option trade.
  2. Long options are tools that can be used to create asymmetric trades with a built in downside and unlimited upside. The leverage is already there, if you position size correctly based on the normal amount of shares you trade you will stay out of a lot of trouble with losing a lot of money.
  3. Options should only be sold short when the probabilities are deeply in your favor that they will expire worthless, also a small hedge can pay for itself in the long run creating a credit spread instead of a naked option with unlimited risk exposure.
  4. Understand that in long options you have to overcome the time priced into the premium to be profitable even if you are right on the direction of the move.
  5. Long weekly deep-in-the-money options can be used like stock with much less out lay of capital to capture intrinsic appreciation in the underlying stock.
  6. The reason that deeper in the money options have so little time and volatility priced in is because you are insuring someone’s profits in that stock. That is where the risk is: the loss of intrinsic value, and that risk is on the buyer of the option contract.
  7. When you buy out-of-the-money options understand that you must be right about direction, time period of move, and amount of move to make money. Also understand this is already priced in.
  8. When trading a high volatility event that potential price move will be priced into the option, after the event the option price will remove that volatility value and the option value will collapse. You can only make money through those events with options if the increase in intrinsic value increases enough to replace the Vega value that comes out. This is why it is so hard to make money when holding options through earnings, the move is already priced in and that extra value is gone the next morning the options open for trading.
  9. Only trade in options with high volume so you do not lose a large amount percentage of money on the bid/ask spread when entering and exiting trades. You have to find those few option chains that have the liquidity to trade with spreads measured in cents not dollars. A $1 price difference in the bid/ask spread will cost your $100 to get in and out of a trade on top of commissions. Also be aware that the best liquidity is in the front month at-the-money options and option chains get more illiquid as they go deeper in-the-money or out-of-the-money this has to be considered in a winning trade because you might have to roll the option to a more liquid contract. Most options chains can’t be traded due to the fact that they are just not liquid enough.
  10. When used correctly options can be tools for managing risk by limiting capital at risk exposure and capturing huge trends, used incorrectly they can blow up your account.

Who we are as individuals is how we trade in the markets – Weaknesses and Strengths of Traders

  
  Education
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Ambitious

Makes and follows long term business plan

•Unambitious

Will ignore long term business plan

•Calm

Will handle times of market volatility and make smart decisions

•Worrying

Will panic when markets are volatile and make stupid decisions

•Cautious

Strictly follows Stop-Loss rules and Protects Trading Capital

•Rash

Will not be diligent with Stop losses and will risk trading capital

•Cheerful

Handles losses and down times in markets (more…)

Overconfidence & Greed

  
  Education
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What most traders often don’t realize until it is too late is how quickly one can lose a lot of money in a single trade often with disastrous consequences.  More often than not this painful experience comes from poor risk management following a period of successful trading. It is natural of course. We are pattern seeking mammals and when something starts working for us we get confident in our abilities and quickly forget we know very little what the market or a given stock may do at any given moment. In short: We easily become overconfident.

It is after a period of successful trading that traders tend to loosen up on good intentioned rules of discipline. They start thinking in term of dollar signs as opposed to the trade discipline. In short they think they can fly. “Look how much money I would have made if I had traded x % of my portfolio”. Stop yourself right there. While it is tempting to play mind games like this no good will come of it. Why? Because you just stepped overtly into the realm of one of the greatest sins of trading:

Once you get greedy you will start abandoning necessary discipline. Nobody, I repeat nobody, no matter how smart they think they are has a fail proof system or process or secret trading technique that guarantees 100% success. I surely don’t. Neither does Goldman Sachs or anybody else. While there may be some HFT firms out there that are trying to algo their way to a perfect system I have news for you: You are not an HFT or an algo. You are an individual trader and as good as you may be: You will have losing trades, things will go against you and oddly enough this will happen when you are at your most vulnerable: When you are overconfident, greedy and overexposed. Something curious tends to happen though when the losing trade occurs:

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