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Just a Trade a Day

  
  Education
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Michael Jardine’s latest book focuses on simple ways to profit from predictable moves in today’s financial markets…

In today’s financial climate, many traders are finding the markets difficult to navigate. With the volatile swings seen over the past weeks and months, it is increasingly difficult to predict where the market is headed and even harder to make a profit day after day. Emotion and inexperience trading in today’s market conditions can lead some to overtrade, trying to gain back the losses suffered throughout this current economic downturn.

In the latest trading title from niche finance publisher Marketplace Books, Just a Trade a Day: Simple Ways to Profit from Predictable Market Moves, traders are introduced to Michael Jardine’s newly developed methods of making market predictions–and profiting—making just a single trade each day.

The author of New Frontiers in Fibonacci Trading, Jardine has used his extensive background in Fibonacci theory to build an easy-to-use trading system. In clear-cut terms, he teaches traders how apply the Market Profile™ and Points of Control to determine how today’s market environment will best produce with their own particular trading style. By giving readers real-life examples from his very own life experiences building this system, Jardine proves the success of this system.

Michael Jardine has been trading, teaching about trading, and blogging about trading on his web site, Enthios.com, for over twelve years. His first trading book, New Frontiers in Fibonacci Trading, was published in 2003. Now, seven years later, Jardine has come back with a combination of his own Jardine Range and what he has dubbed the “Universal Chart,” to find that one trade a day is what all traders are looking for. Jardine has held many positions at a number of marketing-oriented companies including, Chanel, Walt Disney, and Patagonia. He has also created a highly informative video presentation to optimize your trading profits and gain more trading confidence.

Morales & Kacher, Short-Selling with the O’Neil Disciples-Book Review

  
  Education
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SHORT-SELLINGGil Morales and Chris Kacher, the self-styled O’Neil disciples, have established something of a franchise. This is their third book. First cameTrade Like an O’Neil Disciple (2010), then In The Trading Cockpit with the O’Neil Disciples (2012), and now Short-Selling with the O’Neil Disciples: Turn to the Dark Side of Trading (Wiley, 2015).

The authors remain true to their basic philosophy and method, which they dubbed OWL for O’Neil-Wyckoff-Livermore. Here they apply it to short selling.

They sketch out six rules, which deal with cycle timing, stock selection (in terms of price action and volume), trade timing, and setting stops and profit targets. They display chart patterns that serve as short-selling set-ups. They explain the mechanics of short selling. They analyze five case studies that occurred between 2011 and 2014—AAPL, NFLX, GMCR, DDD, and MCP.

And, in what they consider the “real meat of the book,” they offer 91 “templates of doom,” or “what one might consider models of the greatest short-selling plays in recent history.” Studying these templates—marked-up daily and weekly charts—“can give one an edge in recognizing when a major short-selling opportunity is at hand.” (pp. 175-76)

In a cautionary note, the authors readily admit that “there is nothing mechanistic or deterministic about short-selling. Sometimes these set-ups work beautifully, sometimes they don’t, and the probabilities of success rely heavily on contextual factors. These contextual factors include the current action of the major market averages, the phase of the market, the overall national and global economic backdrop, industry developments, earnings news, and the occasional, random, and sudden positive news or rumors that trigger a bounce in an otherwise weak, down-trending stock. Relative to the long side of the market, my experience is that the short side tends to be far more volatile and fraught with uncertainty.” (p. 176)

However potentially treacherous the short side, there are times that short positions are the only money makers. And yet many investors and traders remain squeamish about shorting stocks, not so much because they fear “the dark side” but because it’s uncharted territory. Morales and Kacher have literally charted the way for them.

Nassim Taleb’s 9 Risk Management Rules (Must Read )

  
  Education
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Rule No. 1- Do not venture in markets and products you do not understand. You will be a sitting duck.

Rule No. 2- The large hit you will take next will not resemble the one you took last. Do not listen to the consensus as to where the risks are (that is, risks shown by VAR). What will hurt you is what you expect the least.

Rule No. 3- Believe half of what you read, none of what you hear. Never study a theory before doing your own observation and thinking. Read every piece of theoretical research you can-but stay a trader. An unguarded study of lower quantitative methods will rob you of your insight.

Rule No. 4- Beware of the nonmarket-making traders who make a steady income-they tend to blow up. Traders with frequent losses might hurt you, but they are not likely to blow you up. Long volatility traders lose money most days of the week.

Rule No. 5- The markets will follow the path to hurt the highest number of hedgers. The best hedges are those you alone put on. (more…)

Three Important Lessons For Traders

  
  Education
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1.No one Knows with 100% certainty whether the trade will be profitable or not 

2.No one knows how much money will be made or lost on a trade

3.If the Trader does not control the profit outcome and does not know with 100% which trades will work ,then a the trader should spend 100% percent of his time concentrating on the only element of the trade he can control-the  risk of the trade.

boywave

Will Rao and FM take a long march into future?

  
  Education
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Will Rao join the FM in the walk-back hand-in-hand with each other?
 
Subbarao, the former RBI governor fired some salvos as a parting gift to the current FM last Thursday. That it took him 5 years to take a broadside at the FM on the last working day of his career, shows how little spine the Central Banker had been left with.
 
More importantly, it brings to the open certain disturbing signs that were spoken off in hushed tones but are now visible in the open.  The lobby of students who have read Economics at school and who now run what else-but the national media and newspapers lapped up Rao’s speech.
 
But who’s responsibility was Rao alluding to when he raved and ranted over the North Block interference and pressures. The fact that he highlighted that RBI was manned by the over 50s tribe, which had no knowledge of financial markets and he himself came from the IAS with a bare-bone graduate degree and past designation as Finance Secretary shows how poorly the educated in this country are treated. There is a segment of jobless PhDs who seek pastures overseas and there is the graduate lobby that has to it’s credit the achievement of having passed the IAS entrance exam but except for a 2-3 month training in Simla have not even the smithers of a professional knowledge. These are the people who run the nation’s finances. (more…)

Jim Rogers-I own the dollar.Will I own it in five years, ten years? I don't know.

  
Analysis, Education
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Jim Rogers decries the growing uncertainty and recklessness of global central planners as the world enters unchartered financial markets:

  For the first time in recorded history, we have nearly every central bank printing money and trying to debase their currency. This has never happened before. How it’s going to work out, I don’t know. It just depends on which one goes down the most and first, and they take turns. When one says a currency is going down, the question is against what? because they are all trying to debase themselves. It’s a peculiar time in world history.

 
I own the dollar, not because I have any confidence in the dollar and not because it’s sound – it’s a terribly flawed currency – but I expect more currency turmoil, more financial turmoil. During periods like that, people, for whatever reason, flee to the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. It is not a safe haven, but it is perceived that way by some people. That’s why the dollar is going up. That’s why I own it. Will I own it in five years, ten years? I don’t know. 

It makes it extremely difficult for the investor looking for acceptable risk/reward, or the saver looking to protect their purchasing power; as in Rogers’ view, all options have their problems:

  

I own gold and silver and precious metals. I own all commodities, which is a better way to play as they debase currencies. I own more agriculture than just about anything else in real assets because of the reasons we discussed before. We were talking before about the risk-free or worry-free investment. Even gold: the Indian politicians are talking about coming down hard on gold, and India is the largest buyer of gold in the world. If Indian politicians do something — whether it’s foolish or not is irrelevant — if they do something, gold could go down a lot. So I own it. I’m not selling it. But everything has problems.

Accept These 7 Things -If U Are A Trader

  
  Education
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If you truly are serious about being a trader then there are seven things that you will have to accept.

  1. You will have to accept that over the long term at best only 60% of your trades will be winners. It will be much less with some strategies.

  2. Accept that the key to being a successful trader is having big wins and small losses, not big bets paying off. Big bets can lead quickly to you being out of the game after a string of losses.

  3. Accept that the best traders are also the best risk managers, even the best traders do not have crystal balls so they ALWAYS manage their capital at risk on EVERY trade.

  4. If you want to be a better trader then you need to accept that trading smaller and risking less is a key to your success. Risking 1% to 2% of your capital on any single trade is the first step to winning at trading. Use stops and position sizing to limit your losses and get out when your losses grow to these levels.

  5. You must accept that you will have 10 trading losses in a row a few times each year. The question is what your account will look like when they happen.

  6. You have to accept that you will be wrong, a lot.  The sooner you accept you are wrong and change your mind the better off you will be.

  7. If you really want to be a trader then you are going to have to accept the fact that trading is not easy money. It is a profession like any other and requires much work and effort and even years to become proficient. Expect to work for free and pay tuition to the markets through losses until you learn to trade consistently and profitably.

(more…)

Cut your losses short, no questions asked

  
  Education
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The majority of unskilled investors stubbornly hold onto their losses when the losses are small and reasonable. They could get out cheaply, but being emotionally involved and human, they keep waiting and hoping until their loss gets much bigger and costs them dearly.”
William O’Neil
The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading… I know this will sound like a cliche, but the single most important reason that people lose money in the financial markets is that they don’t cut their losses short.”
Victor Sperandeo
Some people say, “I can’t sell that stock because I’d be taking a loss.” If the stock is below the price you paid for it, selling doesn’t give you a loss; you already have it.
William O’Neil
When I became a winner I went from ‘I figured it out, therefore it can’t be wrong’ to ‘I figured it out, but if I’m wrong, I’m getting the hell out, because I want to save my money and go on to the next trade.’”
Marty Schwartz

5 Qualities-Successful Traders are having

  
  Education
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1) Capacity for Prudent Risk-Taking – Successful young traders are neither impulsive nor risk-averse. They are not afraid to go after markets aggressively when they perceive opportunity;
2) Capacity for Rule Governance – Successful young traders have the self-control needed to follow rules in the heat of battle, including rules of position sizing and risk management;
3) Capacity for Sustained Effort – Successful young traders can be identified by the productive time they spend on trading–research, preparation, work on themselves–outside of market hours;
4) Capacity for Emotional Resilience – All young traders will lose money early in their development and experience multiple frustrations. The successful ones will not be quick to lose self-confidence and motivation in the face of loss and frustration;
5) Capacity for Sound Reasoning – Successful young traders exhibit an ability to make sense of markets by synthesizing data and generating market and trading views. They display patience in collecting information and do not jump to conclusions based on superficial reasoning or limited data.

Trade Like You Are Water

  
  Education
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“Really good traders are also capable of changing their mind in an instant. They can be dogmatic in their opinion and then immediately change it. If you can’t do that, you will get caught in a position and be wiped out.” -Steve Clark
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         The greatest traders have a huge conviction about their edge and trading method after confirming its ability to create long term profits. It is hard for many new traders to grasp that great traders are able to change their opinion about a trade in a manner of minutes for many reasons. Unlike other professions that are paid to be right,it costs traders if they will not admit they are wrong quickly. In a mechanical system stops must be taken when they are hit, in a discretionary system  price movement is the dictator and the trader must be the slave. If you are short a stock and resistance is broken through and closed above with power, then you are wrong, you are now short a break out. If you buy support and the stock plunges far below where you expected the bounce then the stock has broken the range and may be in a down trend. (more…)

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