Archives of “Financial economics” tag

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WISDOM FROM BERNARD BARUCH – For Traders & Investors

  
  Education
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From the SAME AS IT EVER WAS file: Bernard Baruch, a colleague and friend of Jesse Livermore’s, who made a fortune shorting the 1929 crash, and then who later advised presidents Woodrow Wilson and Franklin D. Roosevelt on economic matters, listed the following investment rules in his autobiography published in 1958 entitled Baruch: My Own Story.  These rules are still as applicable today.


1.  Don’t speculate unless you can make it a full-time job.
2.  Beware of barbers, beauticians, waiters–of anyone–bringing gifts of “inside” information or “tips.”(Avoid  Blue channels )
3.  Before you buy a security, find out everything you can about the company, its management and competitors, its earnings and possibilities for growth. (Don’t Trust Indian Management )
4.  Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top.  This can’t be done–except by liars.
5.  Learn how to take your losses quickly and cleanly.  Don’t expect to be right all the time.  If you have made a mistake, cut your losses as quickly as possible.
6.  Don’t buy too many different securities.  Better have only a few investments which can be watched.
7.  Make a periodic reappraisal of all your investments to see whether changing developments have altered their prospects.
8.  Study your tax position to know when you can sell to greatest advantage.
9.  Always keep a good part of your capital in a cash reserve.  Never invest all your funds.
10.  Don’t try to be a jack of all investments.  Stick to the field you know best.

Jesse Livermore’s Best 10 Quotes & Free Link to His Book

  
  Education
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Here is a list of the ten most powerful quotes from Jesse Livermore’s book “How to Trade in Stocks.” Livermore was one of the greatest stock market operators of our time and his quotes stand the test of time. No one made more money in the markets or came back from more bankruptcies than Jesse Livermore. He successfully shorted the Great Depression crash for one of the biggest trading wins in history. While his weakness was not managing his risk of ruin his strength was he could become a millionaire trading during a trending market over and over starting with a small stake. While in the end he decided to take his own life he lived his life as the world’s greatest trader for half a century.

“Do not anticipate and move without market confirmation—being a little late in your trade is your insurance that you are right or wrong.” -Jesse Livermore

“The good speculators always wait and have patience, waiting for the market to confirm their judgment.” -Jesse Livermore

“{Limit} interest in too many stocks at one time.  It is much easier to watch a few than many.” -Jesse Livermore

“Experience has proved to me that the real money made in speculating has been: “IN COMMITMENTS IN A STOCK OR COMMODITY SHOWING A PROFIT RIGHT FROM THE START. ” -Jesse Livermore

“As long as a stock is acting right, and the market is right, do not be in a hurry to take a profit. You know you are right, because if you were not, you would have no profit at all. Let it ride and ride along with it. It may grow into a very large profit, and as long as the “action of the market does not give you any cause to worry,” have the courage of your convictions and stay with it.” -Jesse Livermore

“It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. ” “Never average losses. ” Let that thought be written indelibly upon your mind.” -Jesse Livermore

“One should never sell a stock, because it seems high-priced.” -Jesse Livermore

“Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. ” The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking the first small loss. In so doing, he keeps his account in order so that at some future time, when he has a constructive idea, he will be in a position to go into another deal, taking on the same amount of stock as he had when he was wrong.” -Jesse Livermore
“It is significant that a large part of a market movement occurs in the last forty-eight hours of a play, and that is the most important time to be in it.” -Jesse Livermore

“A speculator should make it a rule each time he closes out a successful deal to take one-half of his profits and lock this sum up in a safe deposit box. The only money that is ever taken out of Wall Street by speculators is the money they draw out of their accounts after closing a successful deal.” -Jesse Livermore

Link to Jesse Livermore’s Book “How to Trade in Stocks”

7 Things -Traders Must Accept

  
  Education
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  1. You will have to accept that over the long term at best only 60% of your trades will be winners. It will be much less with some strategies.
  2. Accept that the key to being a successful trader is having big wins and small losses, not big bets paying off. Big bets can lead quickly to you being out of the game after a string of losses.
  3. Accept that the best traders are also the best risk managers, even the best traders do not have crystal balls so they ALWAYS manage their capital at risk on EVERY trade.
  4. If you want to be a better trader then you need to accept that trading smaller and risking less is a key to your success. Risking 1% to 2% of your capital on any single trade is the first step to winning at trading. Use stops and position sizing to limit your losses and get out when your losses grow to these levels.
  5. You must accept that you will have 10 trading losses in a row a few times each year. The question is what your account will look like when they happen.
  6. You have to accept that you will be wrong, a lot.  The sooner you accept you are wrong and change your mind the better off you will be.
  7. If you really want to be a trader then you are going to have to accept the fact that trading is not easy money. It is a profession like any other and requires much work and effort and even years to become proficient. Expect to work for free and pay tuition to the markets through losses until you learn to trade consistently and profitably.

Trading is about math, ego control, risk management, psychology, focus, perseverance, passion, and dedication. If you are missing one, you may not make it. Trade wisely my friends.

Reminiscences of Marty Zweig: What I Learned From a Market Great

  
  Education
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The early years

After degrees from Wharton, University of Miami and Michigan State, Marty started his career in academia but ultimately became one of the most respected stock market “gurus” in the modern era. I have years’ worth of memories of Marty, and hope readers will indulge me as I reminisce and share some of the most important market lessons I learned from one of the greats.

But first, the personal stuff. Marty was brilliant, there’s no doubt; but he was also quirky, goofy and affable. He was the consummate worrier… but he was also the ultimate warrior. He lived, ate and breathed the markets and perpetually (and tirelessly) strived to “figure it out.”

One of my greatest memories is getting to see first-hand his now-famous memorabilia collection—to which there are no comparables. Among them, there was the dress Marilyn Monroe wore while singing Happy Birthday to John F. Kennedy in 1962; the suits worn by the Beatles on the Ed Sullivan Show in 1964; the 1992 Olympics’ US “Dream Team” basketball jerseys; the booking sheet from one of Al Capone’s arrests; a letter from Madonna to Michigan State declining acceptance so she could pursue a music career; guitars of many rock stars, including Bruce Springsteen and Jimi Hendrix; the fedora worn by Humphrey Bogart in Casablanca; the original Terminator costume worn by Arnold Schwarzenegger; and multiple boxing championship belts, Super Bowl rings and Heisman Trophies. (more…)

How did we end up with two, different definitions of risk?

  
  Education
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When I say “risk” and you say “risk,” chances are high we don’t mean the same thing.

The finance industry defines risk as something measurable. It is variability within a set of known limits. You may have heard it referred to as standard deviation or even volatility. Ultimately, it represents how much an investment wiggles over time.

I’m an adviser who talks to humans. I also happen to be human. From my experience, I know humans outside the financial world define risk differently. In everyday life, we tend to think of risk as uncertainty, or what is left over after we have thought of everything else.

With uncertainty comes variability within a set of unknown limits. It’s the stuff that comes out of left field, like Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s black swan events. Because we can’t measure uncertainty with any sort of accuracy, we think of risk as something outside our control. We often connect it to things like running out of money in retirement or ending up in a car crash.

But how did we end up with two such completely different definitions of the same thing? My research points to an economist named Frank Knight and his book “Risk, Uncertainty and Profit.”

(more…)

9 Rules For Risk Management

  
  Education
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Rule No. 1- Do not venture in markets and products you do not understand. You will be a sitting duck.

Rule No. 2- The large hit you will take next will not resemble the one you took last. Do not listen to the consensus as to where the risks are (that is, risks shown by VAR). What will hurt you is what you expect the least.

Rule No. 3- Believe half of what you read, none of what you hear. Never study a theory before doing your own observation and thinking. Read every piece of theoretical research you can-but stay a trader. An unguarded study of lower quantitative methods will rob you of your insight.

Rule No. 4- Beware of the nonmarket-making traders who make a steady income-they tend to blow up. Traders with frequent losses might hurt you, but they are not likely to blow you up. Long volatility traders lose money most days of the week.

Rule No. 5- The markets will follow the path to hurt the highest number of hedgers. The best hedges are those you alone put on. (more…)

Managing the Mind to Stay in the Game

  
  Education
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  • “The creation of bad trades is easy:  trade your opinion, trade big, don’t cut your losses, just hold on and hope.  Bad trades fight trends; they put out a lot money with the risk of making little.  The entry and exit signals for bad trades are hope and fear, with the ego stepping in and refusing to honor the stop loss.”
  • “Dramatic and emotional trading experiences tend to be negative; pride is a great banana peel, as are hope, fear, and greed.  My biggest slipups occurred shortly after I got emotionally involved with positions.”  -Ed Seykota
  • A good trade is taken with complete confidence and follows your trading method; a bad trade is taken on an opinion.
  • A good trade is taken with a disciplined entry and position size; a bad trade is taken to win back losses the market owes you.
  • “Ninety-five percent of the trading errors you are likely to make–causing the money to just evaporate before you eyes–will stem from you attitudes about being wrong, losing money, missing out, and leaving money on the table.”  -Mark Douglas
    • A loss is not when I lose money; it’s when I don’t follow my plan
    • Turn down the heat when you are getting smoked (pare back position size, trade smaller in a drawdown)
  • A good trade is taken when your entry parameters line up; a bad trade is taken out of fear of missing a move
  • A good trade is taken to be profitable in the context of your trading plan; a bad trade is taken out of greed to make a lot of money quickly.
  • A good trade is taken according to your trading plan; a bad trade is taken to inflate the ego.
  • A good trade is taken without regret or internal conflict; a bad trade is taken when a trader is double-minded.

10 Characteristics Among Successful Traders

  
  Education
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1) The amount of time spent on their trading outside of trading hours (preparation, reading, etc.);

2) Dedicated periods to reviewing trading performance and making adjustments to shifting market conditions;

3) The ability to stop trading when not trading well to institute reviews and when conviction is lacking;

4) The ability to become more aggressive and risk taking when trading well and with conviction;

5) A keen awareness of risk management in the sizing of positions and in daily, weekly, and monthly loss limits, as well as loss limits per position;

6) Ongoing ability to learn new skills, markets, and strategies;

7) Distinctive ways of viewing and following markets that leverage their skills;

8) Persistence and emotional resilience: the ability to keep going in the face of setback;

9) Competitiveness: a relentless drive for self-improvement;

10) Balance: sources of well-being outside of trading that help sustain energy and focus.

30 One Liner For Traders -Must Read

  
  Education
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1. Buying a weak stock is like betting on a slow horse. It is retarded.

2. Stocks are only cheap if they are going higher after you buy them

 3. Never trust a person more than the market. People lie, the market does not.

4. Controlling losers is a must; let your winners run out of control.

5. Simplicity in trading demonstrates wisdom. Complexity is the sign of inexperience.

6. Have loyalty to your family, your dog, your team. Have no loyalty to your stocks.

7. Emotional traders want to give the disciplined their money.

8. Trends have counter trends to shake the weak hands out of the market

. 9. The market is usually efficient and can not be beat. Exploit inefficiencies.

10. To beat the market, you must have an edge. (more…)

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