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Enjoy ( Must Read )

  
  Education
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Paul Singer

From Forbes:

Coming off a huge debt deal with Argentina, hedge fund billionaire Paul Singer’s advise is to be wary of expert advice. “The important turning points in markets are never identified with precision in advance by ‘experts’ and policymakers. This lack of foresight is not surprising, because markets and the course of the economy are not model-able scientific phenomena but rather are examples of mass human behavior, which are never predictable with anything like precision,” says Singer. “But what is surprising is that even the most sophisticated investors, traders and commentators continue to rely on predictions issued by those who have no record of success at such forecasts.”

Nice.

Avoid the pitfalls of ‘over trading’ and ‘under trading.’

  
  Education
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* There are basically two types of over trading. Trading too often and trading too many shares/contracts.

* Remember that there really is no good reason to trade constantly, since extreme over-trading creates stress, produces high commissions and can often lead to more losses.

* Market forces do not last forever and time has shown various examples of the law of gravity in the trading market- that whatever comes up must go down. – and vice versa.

* Instead of grabbing every opportunity that comes along (or thinking that it is an opportunity) make sure each trade setup meets the criteria of your trading plan, don’t be over confident or scared of making trades.

* Utilizing a risk calculator to determine the appropriate position size before you enter a trade can help you determine how many shares/contracts you initially buy. You can start off with a small position and add as the trade continues in your favor. It relieves stress to know that the amount at risk for each position you hold is well proportioned to the size of your entire account and this is great asset management.

* Whenever you feel that you did not stick to your trading plan and made a mistake, quickly learn from that and let it go.

12 Things Traders Should Not Do at all

  
  Education
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  1. A big ego that wants to prove they are right by stubbornly staying with a position that is wrong becasue they want to be right eventually so bad.12-Number
  2. A trader that want to prove he is a hot shot by trading big position sizes especially in options or futures.
  3. Not wanting to take a stop loss and instead just hope the trade comes back.
  4. Trading with emotions instead of a trading plan can get very expensive very fast.
  5. Being a bear in a bull market.
  6. Being a bull in a bear market.
  7. Being overly eager to start trading with real money before fully testing out a trading system.
  8. Trading without doing adequate homework on how to win.
  9. Dollar cost averaging down in a trade is many time expensive to fight that trend.
  10. Ignoring the charts and just trading your opinion.
  11. Ignoring the probability of the risk of ruin based on your current position sizing.
  12. Not really understanding the true danger of  ‘Black Swan’ and ‘Fat Tail’ events.

10 Lessons for Traders & Life

  
Education, Life
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1) Have a firm stop-loss point for all activities: jobs, relationships, and personal involvements. Successful people are successful because they cut their losing experiences short and ride winning experiences.
2) Diversification works well in life and markets. Multiple, non-correlated sources of fulfillment make it easier to take risks in any one facet of life.
3) In life as in markets, chance truly favors those who are prepared to benefit. Failing to plan truly is planning to fail.
4) Success in trading and life comes from knowing your edge, pressing it when you have the opportunity, and sitting back when that edge is no longer present.
5) Risks and rewards are always proportional. The latter, in life as in markets, requires prudent management of the former. (more…)

5 Wisdom Thoughts For Traders

  
  Education
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  1. Learn to think in probabilities. In some types of analysis, it’s easy to forget that any conclusion is only valid within the range of statistical probability. For instance, if we do valuation work, we might think that is the value, and just wait for price to converge. Technical tools make us face the reality in the market, and that is that markets are not very predictable, and are only predictable within a range of probabilities.
  2. Learn to cut your losses. It’s impossible to say what is the “most important” thing in trading or investing, but this certainly is a candidate. Many methodologies do not have any way of telling you when you’re wrong. For instance, if price is under your valuation and it goes down, the logical course of action is to buy more. At some point, declining prices carry a message, and technical tools can force us to respect that message.
  3. Understand how a market has been trending. This can be as easy as squinting at a price chart and see if it “goes up, down, or is pretty flat”. You don’t need moving averages or indicators to do this–simple visual inspection is enough. However (and this is a huge “however”), do not assume that a market that has been trending in the past will continue to trend in the future. That requires a few more steps.
  4. Understand when the rubber band might be stretched a bit too far. Markets tend to move in waves: directional movements will alternate with pullbacks or flat periods. Sometimes, a market goes a bit too far, too fast and can be set to snap back. Buying a market (or shorting) when it is overextended is chasing, and can open the trader up to some stunning losses. There are simple technical tools that will highlight when markets are perhaps a bit overextended, and can tell us to wait for more favorable conditions.
  5. Enforce discipline. Markets are random, but you cannot be random. The only way to get consistent results out of difficult and competitive markets is to always act with consistency and discipline. Technical methodologies encourage us to face market conditions and to immediately evaluate the results of our actions. There is no better way to drive toward consistent behavior.

10+10+10 Trading Rules

  
  Education
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1.    Be flexible and go with the flow of the markets price action, stubbornness, egos, and emotions are the worst indicators for entries and exits.
2.    Understand that the trader only chooses their entries, exits, position size, and risk and the market chooses whether they are profitable or not.
3.    You must have a trading plan before you start to trade, that has to be your anchor in decision making.
4.    You have to let go of wanting to always be right about your trade and exchange it for wanting to make money. The first step of making money is to cut a loser short the   moment it is confirmed that you are wrong.
5.    Never trade position sizes so big that your emotions take over from your trading plan.
6.    “If it feels good, don’t do it.” – Richard Weissman
7.    Trade your biggest position sizes during winning streaks and your smallest position sizes during losing streaks. Not too big and trade your smallest when in a losing streak.
8.    Do not worry about losing money that can be made back worry about losing your trading discipline.
9.    A losing trade costs you money but letting a big losing trade get too far out of hand can cause you to lose your nerve. Cut losses for the sake o your nerves as much as for the sake of capital preservation.
10.    A trader can only go on to success after they have faith in themselves as a trader, their trading system  as a winner, and know that they will stay disciplined in their trading journey.

Bring your risk of ruin down to almost zero. (more…)

Appraising Your Trading Relationship To Pride

  
  Education
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1.Does your self -esteem rise and fall with your latest trading ?

2.Have you ever taken a trade just to prove your ability as a trader ?

3.Do you brag about your winning trades to others ?

4.Do you try to hide your losing trades from others ?

5.Do you ever make up false stories about your trading to impress others ?

6.Do you worry about what other people think of you as a trader ?

7.Make an honest self-assessment of your trading.

8.Compliment yourself and give yourself credit when you do something right.

9.When you make a mistake or do something that doesn’t serve  your trading ,plan how you will correct this tomorrow or in the future.Say to Yourself ,”That’s not like me.I can do better.”

10.Notice your improvement and commit to doing better each day ,week ,month and Year.

Getting Started in Chart Patterns -Thomas Bulkowski (Book Review )

  
  Education
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CHART PATTERNSThomas Bulkowski is probably the best known chart pattern researcher. Among his credits are theEncyclopedia of Chart Patterns and the three-volumeEvolution of a Trader. In this second edition ofGetting Started in Chart Patterns (Wiley, 2014), a book originally published in 2006 and newly revised and expanded with updated statistics, he introduces more than forty chart formations. Better yet, he explains how to trade using them.

Although the title indicates that the book is for novices, it is equally valuable—perhaps even more valuable—for more experienced pattern traders. Without continually reviewing, testing, and revising pattern trading strategies, it’s all too easy to trade yesterday’s market.

In two action-packed chapters Bulkowski explores trendlines and support and resistance. He considers support and resistance to be “the most important chart patterns” because “they show how much you are likely to make and how much you are likely to lose on each trade. That’s like playing poker and knowing the hands of your opponents. You won’t always win, but it helps.” (p. 35)

(more…)

10+1 Rules If You USE Charts

  
  Education
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Rule 1 – If you cannot see trends and patterns almost instantly when you look at a chart then they are not there. The longer you stare, the more your brain will try to apply order where there is none.

If you have to justify exceptions, stray data points and conflicting evidence then it is safe to say the market is not showing you what you think it is.

Rule 2 – If you cannot figure out if something is bullish or bearish after three indicators then move on. The more studies you apply to any chart the more likely one of them will say “something.” That something is probably not correct.

When I look at a chart and cannot form an opinion after applying three or four different types of indicators – volume, momentum, trend, even Fibonacci – I  must conclude that the market has not decided what it wants to do at that time. Who am I to tell it what it thinks?

Rule 3 – You can torture a chart to say anything you want. Don’t do it.

This is very similar to Rule 2 but it there is an important point to drive home. You can cherry pick indicators to justify whatever biases you bring to the table and that attempts to impose your will on the market. You cannot tell the market what to do – ever. (more…)

7 reasons most traders fail in the markets

  
  Education
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1. Most traders follow a flawed strategy with poor selection criteria, usually this is based on personal opinion or bad advice
2. Even when they find a good approach, the majority of traders don’t stay the course; they suffer what we call “style drift”, changing strategy when short-term results are unsatisfactory or become boring
3. The #1 mistake made by virtually all investors is they don’t cut losses
4. Most of the traders that blow themselves up usually do so by adding to losing positions
5. The grand majority of stock traders don’t know the truth about their trading – they fail to conduct in-depth post analysis regularly; they simply don’t know the math, so they have no idea how to manage risk in relation to reward
6. Many traders start with unrealistic goals; they want too much too fast and become disinterested when success doesn’t come quickly
7. Most failures in anything stem from a lack of belief in your own abilities; most people just don’t believe they can be exceptional at stock trading, but they can, if they really want it and follow the right plan

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