Yeah, hi
Slowing growth momentum and the lack of inflationary pressure are fuelling the case among Federal Reserve policymakers that a rate cut may be necessary this year in order to stimulate the economy.
A duo of Fed officials — St Louis Fed president James Bullard and Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari — on Friday cited rising global uncertainty as a reason the US central bank should take immediate action to lower rates.
At its latest policy meeting this week, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-1 to hold rates steady but signalled a strong possibility of cutting them this year.
Mr Bullard, one of the most dovish members of the Fed board, was the lone dissenter. He said on Friday he pushed for a quarter-percentage point cut at the meeting in order to safeguard against weaker growth, tepid inflation and an increasingly volatile environment.
“I believe that lowering the target range for the federal funds rate at this time would provide insurance against further declines in expected inflation and a slowing economy subject to elevated downside risks. Even if a sharper-than-expected slowdown does not materialise, a rate cut would help promote a more rapid return of inflation and inflation expectations to target,” he said in a brief statement posted on his bank’s website.
Mr Kashkari, a non-voting member of the FOMC, went even further. In an essay published on Friday, he said he argued at this week’s meeting for a 50 bps cut in order to “re-anchor” inflation expectations. (more…)
Are stocks always the best long-term investment?
Maybe not.
When some obscure Hawaiian stamps from 1851 go up for auction later this month, they are expected to fetch from $50,000 to $75,000 each.
And if they do, that will mean they have almost certainly been a better financial investment — probably a much better investment — over the past 165 years than the U.S. stock market.
The 13-cent so-called “Missionaries” were used by Christian missionaries in the Hawaiian islands to send letters home. At the time, Hawaii was an independent kingdom. The Associated Press reports that the stamps are part of a 77-stamp collection being sold by Bill Gross, the bond market guru. Ten such “Missionaries” in near-mint condition are being sold.
If the stamps sell for $50,000 each, that will represent a compound annual return of 8.1% over the initial 13-cent purchase price. If the stamps sell for $75,000, you can raise that to 8.4%. (more…)
If you were just woken from some form of suspended animation from let’s say 2010 (ancient economic history in today’s terms) then informed of the current state of global political affairs and upheavals, U.S. employment (95+million not,) global currency gyrations, interest rates at not only 0% but some -0%, threats of escalating wars, threats of major confrontational war, GDP of the major global economies not only contracting, but below statistical stagnant, governments, as well as central banks with balance sheets of debt calculated in $TRILLIONS, some in the 10’s of, all financed at near or below 0%, and the Fed is only about a week away from raising rates into the teeth of what can only be called “uncertainty,” and much, much more. (There isn’t enough time, or digital ink to list them all.)
Nobody would be surprised if your first reaction based on your prior acumen (the ancient history of 7 years ago whether it be in stocks, business, or both) would to become immediately concerned that whatever portfolio, or wealth you may have had in the markets, may be worth far less today than when you were first put to sleep. And probably becoming ever smaller as you thought about what you might need to do next in order to preserve any that may be left.
That is, till someone explained to you the markets you went to sleep knowing of – are no longer – and the reality of the markets today you could never have dreamed up. Even if they let you sleep another decade or longer.
Today, the markets you once knew of are better described as the “markets.”
To clear up any confusion as to how, or why, the “markets” can now be at “never before seen in the history of mankind highs” once again after the resounding “NO” vote in Italy, where the entire E.U. experiment is now seriously undermined, and falling apart in real-time (Brexit first, Italy will surely now vote next, etc., etc,) below is the calculation that explains it all.
For under the rules of: If A = B and B = C, then A = C, you now have the magical formula to understand with Einstein like surety today’s ‘markets.”
If you have any doubt to the soundness of this expression, consider the following:
If a financial crisis appears (A) The central banks will intervene (B)
If the central banks intervene (B) The “markets” go up (C)
Thus, we need more financial chaos (A) To make even more all time “market” highs (C)
The following speech was delivered by Ray Dalio of Bridgewater at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 40th Annual Central Banking Seminar on Wednesday, October 5, 2016.
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It is both an honor and a very special opportunity for me to be able to address such a large and esteemed group of central bankers at such an interesting time for central bankers. I especially want to thank President Dudley and Vice President Schetzel for inviting me to forthrightly share my perspective as an investor and my unconventional template that I believe sheds some light on the very unconventional circumstances that we face.
It is no longer controversial to say that:
• …this isn’t a normal business cycle and we are likely in an environment of abnormally slow growth
• …the current tools of monetary policy will be a lot less effective going forward
• …the risks are asymmetric to the downside
• …investment returns will be very low going forward, and (more…)
The rouble climbed to its strongest level since July 2015 on Monday morning, as the Russian Central Bank’s pledge to weaken the currency struggles to convince markets.
The rouble had already been appreciating as oil prices have recovered over the last twelve months, and growing optimism since Donald Trump’s victory in the US election has helped it become the best-performing emerging market currency since the vote, up just shy of 10 per cent.
President Trump’s calls for a normalisation of relations with Russia raised hopes of a relaxation of economic sanctions and encouraged international investors to return to the country.
However, economists have been sceptical the bank would be able to have a big impact on the currency, and it has continued to rise a further 1.6 per cent since the announcement, including a 0.5 per cent rise this morning to take it to 57.99 per dollar.
Could you survive on just $2.50 a day? According to Compassion International, approximately half of the population of the entire planet currently lives on $2.50 a day or less. Meanwhile, those hoarding wealth at the very top of the global pyramid are rapidly becoming a lot wealthier. Don’t get me wrong – I am a very big believer in working hard and contributing something of value to society, and those that work the hardest and contribute the most should be able to reap the rewards. In this article I am in no way, shape or form criticizing true capitalism, because if true capitalism were actually being practiced all over the planet we would have far, far less poverty today. Instead, our planet is dominated by a heavily socialized debt-based central banking system that systematically transfers wealth from hard working ordinary citizens to the global elite. Those at the very top of the pyramid know that they are impoverishing everyone else, and they very much intend to keep it that way.
As Credit Suisse tantalizingly shows year after year, the number of people who control just shy of a majority of global net worth, or 45.6% of the roughly $255 trillion in household wealth, is declining progressively relative to the total population of the world, and in 2016 the number of people who are worth more than $1 million was just 33 million, roughly 0.7% of the world’s population of adults. On the other end of the pyramid, some 3.5 billion adults had a net worth of less than $10,000, accounting for just about $6 trillion in household wealth.
And since this is a yearly report, we can go back and see how things have changed over time. (more…)
