RETURNING CONFIDENCE
On the upside, the area where churning takes place is in between the Returning Confidence phase and the Subtle Warning phase, after a significant advance has already taken place. This often appears in the form of a head and shoulders top on weekly or monthly charts. By the time confidence returns, the market has already been going up for ages while the retracement patterns become ever larger, each one scarier than the last.
To technical traders, this type of price action tells us that the market is getting tired. Perceived bull market volatility excites investors. They waited forever on the sidelines for fundamentals to confirm that the move up was ‘real’. The coast is finally clear and they jump in with both feet. This phase typically ends with a failure on test of top, and the big, super scary ‘buy the dip’ pullback begins.
BUY THE BIG DIP
The public continues to pour money in, lured by glowing good news and economic data. After the long move up, finding attractive stocks becomes difficult for technical traders and market veterans. Traders chase momentum where they find it. Investors believe that the game is back on, and they are willing to take big risk and buy big dips. This Big Dip usually comes after a failed test of top in the Returning Confidence phase. The Big Dip typically takes price below the 50-day simple moving average and quite often, to the 200-day moving average. This is where ABC Corrections are typically found.
ENTHUSIASM
Once it is widely accepted that economic and corporate fundamentals are supporting higher prices, a bell goes off. The bull survived The Big Dip. Those who had previously been afraid now have plenty of reasons – and proof – that it is safe to go back into the market and buy again. (more…)
Archives of “fear” tag
rssCourage and Trading
According to Plutarch, “Courage stands halfway between cowardice and rashness…” Clearly, we don’t want to be reckless; and clearly, we don’t want to be hesitant and timid. What we need is a balance. As we go about our trading moderating our greed and our fear to a combination of healthy desire and clear minded caution, we use courage to go forward.
Courage doesn’t mean closing your eyes, holding your nose, and jumping into the deep end. It does mean moving forward with clean and clear perception as well as steadfastness of purpose.
You don’t need courage if you’re totally confident and unafraid. Courage, according to John Wayne, is being scared to death and saddling up anyway. Because people tend to fear the unknown, and the unknown is all that is certain about any given trade, we need to employ courage. Since trading is always new, since anything can happen and it often does, since the wildness lies in wait, we need to overcome uncertainty and fear so that we can appropriately enter, exit, and remain in trades. (more…)
Position Size Can Be More Important Than the Entry Price
Too many traders focus only on the entry price and pay insufficient attention to the size of the position. Trading too large can result in good trades being liquidated at a loss because of fear.
On the other hand, trading larger than normal when the profit potential appears to be much greater than the risk is one of the key ways in which many of the Market Wizards achieve superior returns. Trading smaller, or not at all, for lower probability trades and larger for higher probability trades can even transform a losing strategy into a winning one.
For example, Edward Thorp, who started out devising strategies to win at casino games before achieving an extraordinary return/risk record as a hedge fund manager, discovered that by varying the bet size based on perceived probabilities, he could transform the negative edge in Blackjack into a positive edge. An analogous principal would apply to a trading strategy in which it was possible to identify higher and lower probability trades.
Trading Wisdom – Andrew Gordon
Legendary stock trader Jesse Livermore had it right: The big money is in the big moves … and the trick to making the big money is knowing how to sit tight and ride the trend for all it’s worth. As obvious as that may seem, many investors have trouble doing it.
They are, as cognitive psychologists like Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky would say, “risk-averse.” The pain they experience in losing money is far greater than the pleasure they experience in making it. As a result, these investors typically sell their investments too soon for fear of incurring a real or even a paper loss.
To profit the most from an investment, you need to be able to wait long enough for it to achieve its full potential. So if you’re “risk-averse” by nature, it might be a good idea for you to avoid paying too much attention to the news. If you’re watching television and the nightly business report comes on, change the channel. Set aside the business section of the paper to read on a rainy day. Ignore cocktail chatter about investing. That way, you’re more likely to stick to your trading plan instead of letting your emotions overpower your better judgment.
6 Random Thoughts
1) Everyone needs a “mental break” from trading once in a while. The best time to take one is during corrective markets. It helps you protect capital and confidence.
2) If you have a -50% loss, it takes a +100% gain to get it back. In other words, CUT YOUR LOSSES!
3) If you have trouble with discipline and staying away from the market, turn off your computer and get out of your chair. If you sit in the barbershop long enough, you’ll eventually get a haircut.
4) The “fear of missing out” is the downfall of most traders.
5) Whoever said that money doesn’t buy happiness clearly didn’t know where to shop.
6) “There is nothing new on Wall Street. What has happened in the past will happen again and again and again. This is because human nature does not change, and it is human emotion that always gets in the way of human intelligence. Of this I am sure.” — Jesse Livermore
Jesse Livermore / "How to trade stocks"
–“All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical (technical) formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.”
–“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”
–Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.
–“It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind.”
–“Remember this: When you are doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out, are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap benefits from their mistakes.”
–“When a margin call reaches you, close your account. Never meet a margin call. You are on the wrong side of a market. Why send good money after bad? Keep that good money for another day.”
–“Successful traders always follow the line of least resistance. Follow the trend. The trend is your friend.”
–A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong–opinions often are.
–Few people succeed in the market because they have no patience. They have a strong desire to get rich quickly.
–“I absolutely believe that price movement patterns are being repeated. They are recurring patterns that appear over and over, with slight variations. This is because markets are driven by humans–and human nature never changes.”
–When you make a trade, “you should have a clear target where to sell if the market moves against you. And you must obey your rules! Never sustain a loss of more than 10% of your capital. Losses are twice as expensive to make up. I always established a stop before making a trade.”
–“I am fully aware that of the millions of people who speculate in the markets, few people spend full time involved in the art of speculation. Yet, as far as I’m concerned it is a full-time job–perhaps even more than a job. Perhaps it is a vocation, where many are called but few are singled out for success.”
–“The big money is made by the sittin’ and the waitin’–not the thinking. Wait until all the factors are in your favor before making the trade.”
Why do we as traders hold on to our losses?
Hope,
Fear,
Anger,
Apathy,
Confusion,
When we see ourselves on the wrong side of a trade, we hold on with the thought that the market will soon come back in our favor, because most of the time it does. Hope, one of the greatest gift’s GOD has given us, can get you killed in the market.
The fear that when we let go of that loss, price is going to come back in our favor and we would have taken that hit for nothing.
The thought that we can’t take this loss, because we don’t want to give back some of our profits. Then the loss becomes so large that we really can’t afford to take it, so we leave it in the hands on the market hoping for mercy. In that situation, believe me the market is going to run over You every chance it gets, and will wipe You out as many times as possible. As generous as it is on the right side of the trade, it is a ravenous beast with no mercy on the other.
You have done all of Your analysis right, You have waited for a proper trade set-up and everything says that You have the advantage, You get in the market and the trade goes against you, and You are madder than hell because You were right, so You refuse to cut the loss. Let me say that the market loves that, because Your anger is only giving them more of your hard earned money. Your analysis can be 100% perfect and the market can still go against You, because the market will do as it pleases. It leads and You follow, but make no mistake, the same market that lines your pockets so fully can also turn on you like a mad dog.
Another thing that happens when a loss becomes too large is that thought that “I should have cut it at Rs1000.00, now it is Rs1,0000”. Then the apathy sets in and You just don’t care what happens any more. ‘If it comes around fine’, or ‘if I get wiped out so what’, ‘whatever’, then You turn off your screen and You do something else, but You can’t stop worrying about that loss that is looming over You larger than life. It is so much better for you to cut a loss than to have the market cut it for You.
The other thing is the confusion about when to cut a loss, it can get to be hard, but having a predefined stop before your entry or soon after or a physical SL, will make taking a hit much easier. I never like to try to define people’s SL’s because it is a matter of risk tolerance. You know how much You can afford to loss, and Zero is not an option, while none of us want to lose anything, it is just not realistic in this game. There are people who were prosperous for years in the market and got wiped out in single day or week because they could not stand to take a loss. As long as You have money, you have money to make more money, but when your money is gone, you have to get up from the table.
These things are easy to say in theory but hard to do practically, it is I think the hardest discipline that a trader learns, but we must learn to cut losses quickly. The heartache and money I could have saved by cutting my losses quickly and going in the direction that price was moving would be enough for that new Camaro that I love.
That is the great thing about the market, if You survive to play another day, You eventually get it.
CUT YOUR LOSSES QUICKLY (^_^)!!!!!!!!!!!
A failed long usually makes a good short, and a failed short usually means a good long (^_^). There is always good money to be made in the market, just don’t be the one because of your false hope, or stubbornness, that the market is making money off of. Don’t allow the market to feed on your families hard earned money cut losses quickly!!!!!!!!!!
10 Trading Lessons
1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time.
2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.
3. There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent.
4. Exponential rising and falling markets usually go further than you think.
5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.
6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.
7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chips.
8. Bear markets have three stages.
9. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.
10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.
The Confident Trader
Confidence overcomes fear. Confidence also overcomes greed because a component of greed is an underlying sense of scarcity. To be confident doesn’t mean that every trade or trading day will be profitable. What it does mean is that when you look to where you want to go, you know that you can figure out a strategy that will get you there. And you know you can execute that strategy in a consistent manner. A successful strategy doesn’t mean anything if you don’t or can’t or won’t employ it.
Theoretically we should be as successful at trading and investing as our trading and investing strategies. Unfortunately the vast majority of traders and investors fall far short of the results of their strategies. They trip over themselves again and again on the way to employing their methods. My work as a trading coach is to enable traders around the world to become as good as their methods.
Confidence need not waver when you have dips and troughs and plateaus in your trading. Confidence is developed when you realize you can correct mistakes and learn from failures. You don’t persist in failing. You learn and move on. You don’t fear repeating the failure either, you simply anticipate correcting it.
Self esteem is basically the sum total of all the thoughts we have about ourselves. This is quite important because we do tend to become what we think about ourselves. The noted philosopher and psychologist, William James, said, “People, in general, become what they think of themselves.” Not only did he say this but he added that this was the essence of all we had learned in psychology in the prior 100 years. (more…)
Buffett: Capitalism Works
Here’s a recent interview with Warren Buffett in which he discusses a broad array of topics. It’s worth 15 minutes if you have the time, but here’s the bullet points:
- The US economy is still growing and “will continue” to grow into 2014.
- Confidence creeps into a system while fear overwhelms it quickly. It takes time to get the confidence back.
- The American system has always persevered. We’ve questioned capitalism time and time again, but the system works.
- We’re 6 TIMES better off now than when Buffett was born.
- The recovery is being driven by the “natural juices of capitalism and not the government”.
- Advice for entrepreneurs: listen to your customers.
- The capitalist system works because it unleashes human potential.