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Your questions -My answers

  
  Education
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questionandanswerThe Cardinal Sin Of Trading

Q:  Do you believe in the rule of not letting a winning position turn into a loser? If you do, how do you handle a situation where a stop out at the ATR would cause you to take a loss on a position that was a winner at one time?

A:  This has been called the cardinal sin of trading – to let a profitable position turn into a loser. But, it happens. And, just because it does happen, doesn’t mean that it provides you with an excuse not to take your medicine and own the loss.

When we are wrong and we do have a good trade go against us, our top priority remains capital preservation. Therefore, if when painful, we cannot let a small loss grow into a larger one. The worst thing in the world is letting a bad trade turn into an investment and being held hostage by the break-even curve. That’s why stops are important and why sticking to them, even if it requires you to exit with a loss, is mandatory.

Buy The Dippers

Q:  You sometimes refer to the “buy the dippers” in a what seems to me to be a negative tone and yet you also describe part of your style as buying on pullbacks. How do you distinguish these two ideas?

A:  That’s funny you mention this and I appreciate it especially as you say I fall well within the “buy the dip” camp. I have no problem with the buy the dippers as long as they’re present and in charge of the tape, we’ll be just fine. But, the problem is, of course, that if every dip gets bought, at some point Mr. Market will figure out a way to roll back that trade and gain back some respect for his ability to cause the most amount of frustration to the majority. This will ultimately lay the foundation for a nasty bull trap scenario where everyone is long at the wrong time and then caught with their pants down in a sizable reversal. In my experience, when any trade becomes a routine money-maker, you have to expect the market to throw you a monkey wrench. There’s no room for complacency and whenever I have something that works like clockwork and others have figured out the same, I get nervous.

The emotions of trading

  
  Education
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When trading there are two emotions that are more common, and more dangerous, than all the rest; fear and greed.

Fear and greed can ruin even the best trading strategies

One moment of fear or greed can lead to a moment of madness and months of hard won profits going down the drain

Uncontrolled emotions should not be an excuse for losses and losses should not be an excuse for uncontrolled emotions

Remember!! Trading affects psychology as much as psychology affects trading
 

Greed

“You can’t feed on greed”

  • Many people think that greed is thinking that the sole aim of trading is to make money.
  • This is NOT what greed is

Greed is trying to make money too quickly
There are lots of ways to be greedy in trading;

  • Trading in sizes that are too large
  • Trading too frequently
  • Having unrealistic expectations
  • Dreaming of the big hit trade, rather than steadily building your equity

Fear

Fear in trading has two faces;

  • Fear of loss
  • Fear of missing out

The fear of loss compels traders to close profitable trades prematurely, meaning they miss out on potential profit
The fear of missing out compels traders to abandon their trading strategy so they do not miss a major price move
Fear is NOT good as it leads to overtrading and miss-timed entry and exit points
So
DON’T BE SCARED!!

Why You May Never Make Money as a Trader

  
  Education
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While there are a lot of traders out there, many of them don’t make any money. Well, it’s time for a wake-up call folks. Here are six reasons why you do not — and may not ever — make money as a trader:
Nomoney
You don’t put in the proper amount of effort. You don’t put in the full-time commitment it requires to be profitable in trading because you treat it like a hobby. Trading is not a part-time job. It’s serious business.

  1. Failure to be disciplined and consistent with your process. There’s no excuse for this. It’s all up to you.
  2. Trading like a gambler instead of a trader. You’re taking irresponsible risks rather than thinking in terms of probabilities and trading when you have an edge.
  3. Actually putting on trades without a solid game plan. What are you thinking? You must know your game plan and execute it.
  4. You over think things. Trading is a simple game — up, down, sideways. Keep it simple and make money.
  5. Not trusting yourself to do what you know you need to do. You spend too much time listening to other people. Trust yourself and execute what you know.

The good news: every one of these things is entirely in your control. All you have to do is choose to make things happen.

 

Responsible Choice for Traders

  
  Education
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Responsibility as a trader means a lot of different things. As a psychologist, I like to talk about being “responsible” for ones’ owns emotions – identifying and accepting them, and being responsible for our decisions. Too many traders blame the market or some unseen force that manipulates the market and causes their loss. Whether or not such unseen forces exist isn’t really the issue, or even the reason that keeps traders from making money. It’s a convenient excuse, but not much else.

A useful concept for traders is a concept known as Responsible Choice, defined as choices that create consequences for which you are willing to assume full responsibility. The phrase, “responsible choice” comes from Gary Zukav, a man who has covered a lot of ground in his life; former Special Forces officer in Vietnam, Harvard grad, wrote the best selling physics book, “The Dancing Wu Li Masters”, and now a consciousness expert.  A friend of mine is very good friends with him.

Fully accepting whatever happens in a well-planned trade is the hallmark of a successful trader. A trader with a mind-set that operates with the concept of responsible choice will see loss simply as an unproductive trade, not as a personal attack.  Moreover, they will see the loss as a learning opportunity, gathering market information from the loss and possibly adjusting their perspective on the market.

Using the framework of responsible choice, a trading loss is actually empowering.  If a trader has difficulty accepting losses, or accepting whatever happens (e.g. not reaching target or overshooting target after the trade is closed) the psychological experience of empowerment is elusive and the trader will usually swing to the other side of the spectrum and become frustrated. Obviously, there is a lot more to be said about losses, I just wanted to point out the concept of responsible choice as a framework to be considered.

Passive Investing Propaganda

  
Education, Video
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My points to consider:

1. If you have an investment that is not working, or one that is beating you with heavy fees, then you have made a choice. If you don’t want that–stop. If you don’t stop you can always watch a video like this, blame someone else, and refuse to take any personal responsibility. Ignorance is no excuse. It’s your life. Take control.

2. Passive investing (i.e. indexes, buy and hold, etc.) might appear as an option, but how would you feel if you have been buying and holding the Japanese Nikkei 225 since 1989? Not very good is my bet.

3. I teach trend following. The trend following traders in my work illustrate trend following success, but my work is not an advertisement for anyone except me. Can trend following funds charge fees? Yes. However, in their defense the trend following performance numbers in all of my books are ‘after fees’.

4. Brokers are bullshit. If you like bullshit then you get what you want out of life by listening to brokers.

5. This video promotes the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH). Academics promote EMH like there is no tomorrow. Two big reasons? Many of these academics have rock solid tenure at the best universities and also make millions selling EMH text books. Everyone has a motivation, but I will hold my books up against this video every day of the week.

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