Archives of “estimates” tag

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IMF lowers global growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.2% in July

  
Analysis, Economy
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The latest growth estimates

The latest growth estimates
The prior estimates were in July and at that time they were downgraded from April.
  • Prior was 3.2%
  • 2020 growth to 3.4% from 3.5%
  • US growth to 2.4% from 2.6%
  • US 2020 to 2.1% from 1.9%
  • Cuts 2019 China forecast to 6.1% from 6.2%
  • Cuts 2020 China to 5.8% from 6.0%
  • US-China trade tensions will cumulatively reduce global growth by 0.8% by 2020
  • Risks skewed to the downside due to uncertainty over trade tensions, Brexit, declines in risk appetite and manufacturing weakness
  • Eurozone 2019 1.2% vs 1.3%
  • Eurozone 2020 1.4% vs 1.6%
  • Germany 2019 1.2% vs 1.7%
  • India 2019 6.1% vs 7.0%
  • LatAm 2019 0.2% vs 0.6%
  • LatAm 2020 1.8% vs 2.3%
  • World trade volume 1.1% vs 2.5%
The IMF warned last week that it was going to cut global growth so this isn’t a surprise but we might have expected to see 3.1%.
They estimate that the trade war could cause China’s GDP to fall by 2.0% in the short term and cut 0.6% from US GDP.
If anything, the 2020 numbers look optimistic.

Warren Buffett Teaches : Part – I

  
  Education
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Buffet learned how to involve in high probably investments since high-school. Back in those years, he and one of his friends bought a reconditioned pinball machine for $25. They put the game in a barber shop. They checked the coin box at the end of the first day and found $4. “I figured I had discovered the wheel,” says Buffet. Eventually the pinball business was netting $50 per week. By the time Warren graduated high school, he is an owner of a small farm in Nebraska and has $9,000 in his bank account (more…)

Per capita income in India is Rs 46,492

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Per capita income of Indians grew by 14.5 per cent to Rs 46,492 in 2009-10 from Rs 40,605 in the year-ago period, as per the revised data released by the government today.

 The new per capita income figure estimates on current market prices is over Rs 2,000 more than the previous estimate of Rs 44,345 calculated by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO).

Per capita income means earnings of each Indian if the national income is evenly divided among the country’s population at 117 crore.

However, the increase in per capita income was only about 6 per cent in 2009-10 if it is calculated on the prices of 2004-05 prices, which is a better way of comparison and broadly factors inflation.

Per capita income (at 2004-05 prices) stood at Rs 33,731 in FY10 against Rs 31,801 in the previous year, the latest data on national income said.

The size of the economy at current prices rose to Rs 61,33,230 crore in the last fiscal, up 16.1 per cent over Rs 52,82,086 crore in FY’09.

Based on 2004-05 prices, the Indian economy expanded by 8 per cent during the fiscal ended March 2010. This is higher than 6.8 per cent growth in fiscal 2008-09.

The country’s population increased to 117 crore at the end of March 2010, from 115.4 crore in fiscal 2008-09.

Gambler’s fallacy

  
  Education
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For a fair coin, the answer sho uld be that both outcomes are equally lik ely.

If you Believed that the next flip is more likely to be tails because “tails is due to come up” this is whats is known as gambler’s fallacy, a great example of availability bias. i.e ” availability bias occurs when our estimates of probabilities are influenced by what is most “available” .

The purpose of the quiz is simple .

As traders assess new information, all observations must be appropriately weighted in prices or estimates of probabilities. If traders are unduly influenced by availability bias, the resulting estimates may not be accurate.  You must at all time in your approach be equally fair, balanced objective and dispassionate while gathering your analysis toward trading .

Sovereign Debt Estimates

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Sovereign debt is a key driver of the current economic jitters. The chart below shows next year’s sovereign debt estimates for the G-7 and other key global economies – the U.S. debt in 2011 would be about equal to GDP ($15 trillion), while the debt loads carried by Japan, Italy and Greece would exceed GDP.

12 Insightful Thoughts from “The Most Important Thing” by Howard Marks

  
Education, Life
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1. People usually expect the future to be like the past and underestimate the potential for change.

2. When everyone believes something is risky, their unwillingness to buy usually reduces its price to the point where it’s not risky at all. Broadly negative opinion can make it the least risky thing, since all optimism has been driven out of its price.

3. In investing, as in life, there are very few sure things. Values can evaporate, estimates can be wrong, circumstances can change and “sure things” can fail. However, there are two concepts we can hold to with confidence: • Rule number one: most things will prove to be cyclical. • Rule number two: some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget rule number one.

4. Very early in my career, a veteran investor told me about the three stages of a bull market. Now I’ll share them with you. • The first, when a few forward-looking people begin to believe things will get better • The second, when most investors realize improvement is actually taking place • The third, when everyone concludes things will get better forever

5. Investors hold to their convictions as long as they can, but when the economic and psychological pressures become irresistible, they surrender and jump on the bandwagon.

6. Even when an excess does develop, it’s important to remember that “overpriced” is incredibly different from “going down tomorrow.” • Markets can be over- or underpriced and stay that way—or become more so—for years.

7. If everyone likes it, it’s probably because it has been doing well. Most people seem to think outstanding performance to date presages outstanding future performance. Actually, it’s more likely that outstanding performance to date has borrowed from the future and thus presages subpar performance from here on out. (more…)

Best Disclaimer Language Ever

  
Education, Humour
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I like a legal department that has a sense of humor. This is the standard disclaimer that Contango Oil & Gas Company (MCF) includes with their quarterly earnings reports:

Lawyer Stuff
The future is unknowable. We have good intentions but all of our projections and estimates will be wrong, and could be materially wrong. Wildcat exploration is expensive, speculative and potentially dangerous. An offshore spill or explosion would be enormously expensive. We have insurance but it may not be enough. You could lose your entire investment. Don’t be lazy – read our 10-Q’s, 10-K’s and press releases, and if you lose money – please no tears.
“Don’t forget about risk-free T-bills in your portfolio…After inflation and taxes you’ll likely only lose 5-10% of your investment.”
– Contango V.P. Investor Relations

Trading Without Targets

  
  Education
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Focused on entries, traders often don’t explicitly identify where they would harvest profits. They hold trades too long, exiting in a panic after reversals, or they take profits quickly, missing opportunity. They don’t factor current volatility into estimates of how far the market could move on their time frame, and they often don’t explicitly look for targets based upon prior moves and ranges.

Preserving Psychological Capital

  
  Education
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Estimates are that 75-95% of all traders lose all their trading capital in the first year, and only about 5-10% of those that get into trading are able to stay profitable on a consistent basis after 5 years. This is not encouraging. However, since the majority of people tend to be overconfident, most believe that they are not going to be among the casualties.

What is behind this overconfidence?

Some of the most highly educated professionals such as doctors, lawyers and engineers who are used to being first in their class–the best of breed in whatever they do– fail miserably as traders and investors. The reason is that the process of trading and investing is completely different from activities and ways of thinking that bring success outside of the markets. Trading is a counterintuitive to what we are taught growing up. As we grow and develop, we acquire levels of control. We learn to control our bodies, movements, environments, who we chose as friends, lovers and mates, our educational goals, where and how we live. We get cozy and comfortable in our little worlds where we make the rules, and live out our lives in accord with them. Yes, there is a lot going on in the world, but it really doesn’t mean all that much unless it affects us directly. When external challenges face us in our personal lives, we take control, problem solve, and get done what needs to be done.

In the markets things are quite different. There is no way to control the market forces. Markets are larger than life, yet they are life. Millions of people from every part of the world are there making decisions that affect you in either a positive or a negative fashion. Millions of nameless and faceless people are trying to take your money before you take theirs. There is no situation in the life of most people that compares with this. That is why successful trading and investing requires one to adopt an entirely new brain-set.

The majority of people are simply not neurologically flexible enough adapt to this new environment. They insist on adapting the markets to their own worldview, and they fail—sometimes miserably so.

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Small losses almost always become larger and larger losses, leading to every manner of emotional distress as you are holding and hoping, or in complete denial that the position could possibly turn against you. Holding and hoping leads to larger losses and more emotional carnage until you are a financial and neuropsychiatric basket case and you just want out at any cost. Desperation, anxiety or depression set in and remind you of every time in your life you were told that you were not good enough, that you would never amount to anything or that you didn’t deserve to win or be successful. You are now in a state where both financial and psychological capital are depleted–all because you didn’t take a small loss.

How do you preserve your financial and psychological capital? You learn to embrace risk by using rigorous risk management techniques. The most important of these are position sizing, stops and money management. You take small losses. You take small losses! You let winning positions run and take profits and trail stops as they are running. Please memorize this until it is burned into the connections in your brain: The single biggest reason for failure as a trader or investor is the inability to take small losses and letting them grow into larger losses.

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