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Trading With A Plan

  
  Education
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A planned trade is one that is guided consciously, filtered according to a variety of criteria that are designed to provide a positive expectancy. The opposite of a planned trade is an impulsive one, in which traders enter markets before explicitly identifying what they are doing and why. The difference between planned and unplanned trading is one of intentionality: being proactive in taking controlled risks vs. being reactive to what has already occurred in markets. Even the most intuitive and active trader can trade in a planned manner, if many of the elements of planning are achieved prior to entering positions.

So what are these elements of planning? The ideal trade identifies:

1) What you’re trading – Why are you selecting one instrument to trade (one stock, one index) versus others? Which instruments maximize reward relative to risk?

2) How much you’re trading – How much of your capital are you going to allocate to the trade idea versus other ideas?

3) Why you’re trading – What is the rationale for the trade? Why does the trade idea provide you with an “edge”?

4) What will take you out of the trade – What would lead you to determine that your trade idea is wrong? What would tell you that the trade has reached its profit potential?

5) Where you will enter the trade – Given the criteria that would take you out of the trade, where will you execute your idea to maximize the reward you’ll obtain relative to the risk you’ll be taking?

6) How you will manage the trade – What would have to happen to convince you to add to the trade, scale out of it, and/or tighten your stop loss? (more…)

Quotes on Psychology

  
  Education
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The most important single factor in shaping security markets is public psychology. – Gerald Loeb

Wall Street never changes. The pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes because human nature never changes. – Jesse Livermore

There is nothing more important than your emotional balance. – Jesse Livermore

There are styles in securities as there are in clothes. A security may be undervalued, but if it is also out of style it is of little interest to the speculator. He is, therefore, compelled to study the psychology of the stock market as well as the elements of real value. – Phil Carret

When events have thinking participants, the subject matter is no longer confined to facts but also includes the participants’ perceptions.  The chain of causation does not lead directly from fact to fact but from fact to perception and from perception to fact. – George Soros

A PERFECT EXPLANATION FOR THE COLLECTIVE MADNESS OF CROWDS

  
  Education
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All I can say about the following is WOW, talk about THE perfect explanation for the reason behind unreasonable and illogical crowded moves in the stock market…

The most striking peculiarity presented by a psychological crowd is the
following: Whoever be the individuals that compose it, however like or unlike
be their mode of life, their occupations, their character, or their intelligence,
the fact that they have been transformed into a crowd puts them in possession
of a sort of collective mind which makes them feel, think, and act in a manner
quite different from that in which each individual of them would feel, think,
and act were he in a state of isolation. There are certain ideas and feelings
which do not come into being, or do not transform themselves into acts except
in the case of individuals forming a crowd. The psychological crowd is a
provisional being formed of heterogeneous elements, which for a moment are
combined, exactly as the cells which constitute a living body form by their
reunion a new being which displays characteristics very different from those
possessed by each of the cells singly.

…and it was written by a psychologist in 1896!

Anyone care to guess who it is? And it is not Charles Mackay.

Top 26 Quotes From Ed Seykota On Trend Following, Trading And Life

  
  Education
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 Quote 1:

“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market.  Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”

 Quote 2:

“Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them “funny-mentals”.  However, if you catch on early, before others believe, you might have valuable “surprise-a-mentals”.”

 Quote 3:

“If you can’t measure it, you probably can’t manage it… Things you measure tend to improve.”

Quote 4:

“The key to long-term survival and prosperity has a lot to do with the money management techniques incorporated into the technical system.”

 Quote 5:

“There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are very few old, bold traders.”

 Quote 6:

“”I would add that I consider myself and how I do things as a kind of system which, by definition, I always follow.”

 Quote 7:

“Systems trading is ultimately discretionary.  The manager still has to decide how much risk to accept, which markets to play, and how aggressively to increase and decrease the trading base as a function of equity change.”

 Quote 8:

“Trying to trade during a losing streak is emotionally devastating. Trying to play “catch up” is lethal.”

 Quote 9:

“The elements of good trading are: 1, cutting losses. 2, cutting losses.  And 3, cutting losses.  If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.” (more…)

Confusion Is Part Of The Learning Curve

  
  Education
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learning_curve4Confusion and frustration is part of the learning curve. Frankly, if you’re not getting confused by the array of opinions and information out there, then you’re doing something wrong. The key is to keep working though it and continue learning as much as you can. With time and effort, the confusion you have now will be replaced with a clear understanding of key elements of trading that can’t be learned in a different way. But, it takes time

The Ten Best Things Ed Seykota Ever Said.

  
  Education
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Arguably one of the greatest traders of all time with his trend following system.

Charles Faulkner tells a story about Seykota’s finely honed intuition when it comes to trading: I am reminded of an experience that Ed Seykota shared with a group. He said that when he looks at a market, that everyone else thinks has exhausted its up trend, that is often when he likes to get in. When I asked him how he made this determination, he said he just puts the chart on the other side of the room and if it looked like it was going up, then he would buy it… Of course this trade was seen through the eyes of someone with deep insight into the market behavior

The Ten Best Things Ed Seykota Ever Said:

Psychology

“To avoid whipsaw losses, stop trading.”

“It can be very expensive to try to convince the markets you are right.”

“A fish at one with the water sees nothing between himself and his prey. A trader at one with his feelings feels nothing between himself and executing his method.”

Risk Management

“The elements of good trading are cutting losses, cutting losses, and cutting losses.”

“Here’s the essence of risk management: Risk no more than you can afford to lose, and also risk enough so that a win is meaningful. If there is no such amount, don’t play.”

“In your recipe for success, don’t forget commitment – and a deep belief in the inevitability of your success.”

Trading System

“The trend is your friend except at the end when it bends.”

“If you want to know everything about the market, go to the beach. Push and pull your hands with the waves. Some are bigger waves, some are smaller. But if you try to push the wave out when it’s coming in, it’ll never happen. The market is always right.”

“Systems don’t need to be changed. The trick is for a trader to develop a system with which he is compatible.”

“I don’t predict a nonexisting future.”

Ed Seykota is a legend in the trend following community and has returns that would make Bernie Madoff  jealous, because his are real. If you can fully grasp what Ed is saying in these quotes it will improve your trading dramatically.

THE COLLECTIVE MADNESS OF CROWDS

  
  Education
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All I can say about the following is WOW, talk about THE perfect explanation for the reason behind unreasonable and illogical crowded moves in the stock market…

The most striking peculiarity presented by a psychological crowd is the following: Whoever be the individuals that compose it, however like or unlike be their mode of life, their occupations, their character, or their intelligence,the fact that they have been transformed into a crowd puts them in possession of a sort of collective mind which makes them feel, think, and act in a manner quite different from that in which each individual of them would feel, think,and act were he in a state of isolation. There are certain ideas and feelings
which do not come into being, or do not transform themselves into acts except in the case of individuals forming a crowd. The psychological crowd is a provisional being formed of heterogeneous elements, which for a moment are combined, exactly as the cells which constitute a living body form by their reunion a new being which displays characteristics very different from those possessed by each of the cells singly.

…and it was written by a psychologist in 1896!

Are you A Discretionary Trader? How would you be able to tell?

  
  Education
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Here is a quiz that will help you decide. Answer Yes or No to the following questions.
1. Do you sometimes buy newsletter recommendations without having a real plan for how you’ll get out of the trade?
2. Do you occasionally (or often) take trades based upon some interesting indicator that you learned in a workshop (i.e., when you see that indicator go, you usually get into a trade, but again you have no real plan about how you’ll get out of the trade)?
3. Do you trade three or more different systems in the same account?
4. Do you trade more than ten different systems?
5. Do you sometimes enter a trade and later not remember why?
6. Are you unsure of how many systems you have?
7. Do most of your systems lack a complete set of rules to guide your behavior?
8. Are your systems equivalent to the setups used to get into the trades and nothing more?
9. Are you unable to list the rules for the last trade you made?
10. Are you able to list the rules for any of the last five trades you made? (more…)

What should you look for in a trading system?

  
  Education
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1. Profitability: This is a must when we look for a system .Lowering the risk factor and increasing the reward is simply the answer to a profitable system

2. Probability: One of the important elements of a trading system, but it does not always mean it will be a profitable trading system, if the proper money management is not in use.
3. Consistency: Without consistency we will not be able to breath in the on going changing market condition. A consistently profitable system will pick up some drawdown as soon as the extreme condition is over.

4.Flexibility: Providing Simple, Easy and Powerful System which can be used in any time frame and on any financial instrument.

Wisdom From Bruce Kovner

  
  Education
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On trading ranges and price patterns:

 

…as a trader who has seen a great deal and been in a lot of markets, there is nothing disconcerting to me about a price move out of a trading range that nobody understands.
…Tight congestions in which a breakout occurs for reasons that nobody understands are usually good risk/reward trades.
…The more a price pattern is observed by speculators, the more prone you are to have false signals. The more a market is the product of nonspeculative activity, the greater the significance of technical breakouts.
…The general rule is: the less observed, the better the trade.

On predetermined risk points:

Whenever I enter a position, I have a predetermined stop. That is the only way I can sleep. I know where I’m getting out before I get in. The position size on a trade is determined by the stop, and the stop is determined on a technical basis… I always put my stop behind some technical barrier.”
I never think about [stop vulnerability], because the point about a technical barrier — and I’ve studied the technical aspects of the market for a long time — is that the market shouldn’t go there if you are right. (more…)

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