Archives of “economic growth” tag

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Upcoming Week : Cutting to the Quick

  
  Analysis
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Central banks are prepared to take fresh measures to strengthen and extend the business cycle primarily because price pressures are below what their predecessors thought would be acceptable levels. Draghi, speaking for the ECB, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Japan ratcheted up their concerns, which, even without new initiatives, were sufficient to drive interest rates lower.
There is no real definition of many terms economists throw around like recession or depression.  The “two negative quarters of declining GDP” is not a technical definition but a rule of thumb.  Ironically there weren’t recessions before the Great Depression.  The end of business or credit cycles were called panics and crises.  The use of “recession” appears to have been applied to economies to distinguish the end of the business cycle from the Great Depression.  Neither the US nor Europe seems to be on the verge of an economic contraction.  Given a shrinking population, the Japanese economy can contract, and per capita GDP can still rise.
The Bundesbank warned last week that the German economy may have contracted in Q2, but the eurozone flash composite PMI suggests the region expanded.  Although the composite PMI averaged 51.8 in Q2, following a 51.5 average in Q1, GDP growth maybe half of the 0.4% in recorded in the first three months of the year.
The most important data point for the eurozone next week is the flash CPI reading.  Some may see it as a non-story as headline inflation is expected to remain at 1.2% and the core rate at 0.8%.  Unchanged data is the story.  Draghi was clear: if conditions do not improve, the ECB needs to provide more stimulus.

(more…)

RBI hikes CRR by 75 bps; repo rates untouched

  
Analysis, Education
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RBI GOVERNER

The Reserve Bank of India, in its Monetary Policy review today has hiked the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 75 basis points (bps) to 5.75 per cent, while holding the repo and reverse repo rates steady in line with market expectations.

The CRR hike will be done in two tranches. The first one will be for 50 bps with effect from February 13, 2010, and the balance 25 bps will be effective from February 27, 2010. Eventually, this will drain out Rs 36,000 crore from the system.

Repo rate is the rate at which the banks can borrow money from RBI in order to avoid scarcity of funds.

The move comes on the back of spiraling inflation. Food inflation touched 17.4 per cent for the week ended 16 January 2010, slightly higher than previous week’s 16.81 per cent. Fuel price index rose to 5.7 per cent while primary articles price index touched 14.66 per cent for the week ended 16 January 2010.

A median forecast released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the pre-policy ‘Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments: Third Quarter Review 2009-10’ yesterday raised the economic growth projection to 6.9 per cent from the 6 per cent projected three months ago.

NIFTY Future :In panic low of 4757 was made and now trading at 4801.My Support and expected target was of 4724-4676 in panic.

-Don’t panic @ lower levels.

-If not breaks 4757 & trades above 4812 with volumes will take to 4845-4856 & there after watch unexpected buying upto 4889-4900 level.

Updated at 11:25/29th Dec/Baroda

India's GDP growth to crawl at 4.7% in second quarter: ZyFin

  
  Education
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Barely over a week ahead of release of the official GDP data, research and analytical firm ZyFin today estimated India’s economy to expand by 4.7% in the  second quarter of the current financial year. The methodology used by ZyFin is distinct  and it claimed that it uses variables  which are lead indicators to the official data. If GDP indeed grows by this rate, the Finance  Ministry’s hopes of  GDP growth between 5-5.5%  in 2013-14 may be dashed.  

 
In the first quarter of the current financial year, the GDP expanded at a four-year bottom of 4.4%. At that time, ZyFin had estimated a growth of 4.5%. 
 
“We still believe that the economy is in a crisis mode and much below what the economy used to grow at a pace of around 8%”, Debopam Chaudhuri, Vice President of Research and Development at Zyfin told Business Standard.
 
However, even if the economy grows at this pace, it would be at a year high — both according to official and ZyFin estimates. In the second quarter of 2012-13, the economic growth was higher at 5.2% as per official estimates and by ZyFin’s calculations it was 5.1%.
 
“While the estimates indicate a sluggish recovery, high inflation, weak consumer sentiment and a slowing services sector will constrain any sustained recovery”, said the firm. (more…)

China greasing economy with $55bn in tax breaks

  
Analysis, Education
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China’s State Council on Wednesday approved 380 billion yuan ($55.1 billion) in tax relief that will mainly favor farmers and small businesses in a move that is seen as both economic and political.

The second large-scale tax cut to follow last year’s comes as China’s economy is forecast to slow down in the latter half of 2017, during which the Communist Party will convene its 19th National Congress and reshuffle top leadership.

China will modify its value-added tax this July by removing the 13% bracket while retaining the 6%, 11% and 17% tiers. The 13% rate currently applies to farm products and natural gas, but they will move to the 11% category. Farmers as well as households that purchase rice and vegetables will likely benefit from this change.

For smaller companies, those that pay 300,000 yuan or less in annual taxable revenue qualify for preferential tax treatment. The ceiling will be lifted to 500,000 yuan. Furthermore, small businesses and startups will be allowed to deduct 75% of research and development costs, up from 50%. These tax breaks will remain in effect until the end of 2019.

The Chinese government enacted about 500 billion yuan worth of corporate tax cuts in 2016. Helped also by a surge in infrastructure spending, the real economy grew 6.9% during the January-March period this year, marking the second quarter of economic acceleration. However, the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, has been gradually raising market interest rates in order to rein in the real estate bubble. (more…)

Spain Sells 3 Year Bonds At 3.717%, 119 bps Higher Than Prior Auction

  
Analysis, Education
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For a demonstration of the unsustainable course that European sovereign funding is on, look no further than Spain, where earlier the government auctioned off €2.468 billion in three year notes for a whopping 3.717%. The bid to cover was 2.27 compared to 2.16 in October, and it was reported that foreign buyers bid above 60% of the auction (which means the ECB funded domestic banks bought about 40%). However, the same issued priced at 2.527% at the last sale on Oct. 7, a 119 bps difference. Still it wasn’t all bad, considering the bond had traded at almost 4% in recent days. As Reuters reports: “Analysts and bond market players had predicted a leap of as much as 2 percentage points in yields, but Madrid’s situation has been helped by mounting expectations the European Central Bank will step up extraordinary measures to contain the crisis.” The problem for Spain is that it has minimized the amount of debt it is issuing during turbulent times: “The Treasury had cut the amount of bonds on offer in order to trim financing costs as it faces down market doubts on whether it can bring down its deficit due to sluggish economic growth and persistent concerns it might need to bailout its debt-laden banks.” And the problem for the ECB is that it most likely, as many analysts are predicting, will not announce anything of substance, as otherwise the ECB will have to monetize up to €1.5 trillion in total debt and interest through the end of 2011. The result for the EUR will inevitably be disastrous in either case, and if in 25 minutes JCT indeed announces nothing, look for all those who bid up the bond auction earlier to be tearing out their hair as the 3 Year promptly passes 4%.

Ed Easterling’s 12 Rules of Market Cycles

  
  Education
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Here are Ed Easterling’s 12 Rules of Market Cycles:

1. Secular cycles are driven by the inflation rate (deflation, price stability, and higher inflation)

2. Secular bulls occur when P/E starts low and ends high over an extended period

3. Secular bears occur when P/E starts high and ends low over an extended period

4. Cyclical bulls and bears are interim periods of directional swings within secular periods

5. Cyclical cycles are driven by market psychology, illiquidity, or other generally temporary condition(s)

6. Time is irrelevant to the length of secular stock market cycles

7. Secular bulls require a doubling or tripling of P/E

8. Secular bears occur as P/E stalls and falls by one-third to two-thirds or more

9. When real economic growth is near 3%, there is a natural floor for P/E between 5 and 10, a natural ceiling around the mid-20s, and a typical average in the mid-teens

10. If economic growth shifts upward or downward for the foreseeable future, the natural range moves upward or downward, respectively

11. Inflation drives P/Es location within the range; economic growth drives the level of the range

12. The stock market is not consistently predictable over months, quarters, or periods of a few years; the stock market is, however, quite predictable over periods approaching a decade or longer based upon starting P/E

Calamitous Consequences

  
  Education
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Karl Marx died in March 1883, yet there has been a rebirth of the ideas he detailed on the inherent flaws of capitalism. Recently, Paul Tudor Jones gave a ‘Ted Talk’ about capitalism needing re-definition. My paper entitled ‘2014 and Beyond’ began with the sentence, “Modern day capitalism appears to need a different moniker”.  It is quite possible that future developments in capitalism will have profound and on-going influence on markets and valuations.

Let me first go on record and say that in the 135 years since Marx’ death, capitalism has been the single greatest engine for human advancement.  It has certainly been an outstanding way to organize the production and distribution of goods and services. Its free-market structure encouraged innovation, leading to new methods and products whose technological advancements allowed for globalization and the general shrinking of the world.  Entrepreneurship aided improvements to health and education, and was the cornerstone to economic progress. No other social construct in history has done more to advance the human condition, or lift more people out of poverty, than capitalism. 

A capitalist structure’s main quest is to ensure the real appreciation of capital.  Corporate leaders are incentivized to maximize shareholder value at almost any cost: the best means is to increase output per hour worked (productivity).   Can this be sustained forever? (more…)

S&P Lowers Italy Outlook To Negative

  
Analysis, Education
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First Credit Agricole, now Italy….Maestro: the EUR take down orchestra is reaching the fortissimo cadenza. Next up: the glissando.

Overview

  • In our view Italy’s current growth prospects are weak, and the political commitment for productivity-enhancing reforms appears to be faltering.
  • Potential political gridlock could contribute to fiscal slippage.
  • As a result, we believe Italy’s prospects for reducing its general government debt have diminished.
  • We have therefore revised the rating outlook on Italy to negative, implying a one-in-three chance that the ratings could be lowered within the next 24 months.
  • We have also affirmed the ‘A+/A-1+’ sovereign credit ratings on Italy. (more…)

Bad NEWS Continues For BRAZIL

  
Analysis, Education
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BRAZIL2Brazil’s economic growth continues to disappoint.

After data in December showed Brazil’s economy shrank in the third quarter of last year for the first time since 2009, the central bank’s IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for gross domestic product, showed economic activity fell 0.3 per cent in November from a month earlier.

The market had been expecting an increase of 0.1 per cent for November.

The surprise contraction comes just two days after the central bank voted unanimously to raise its benchmark Selic rates by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points to 10.5 per cent.

The aggressive move is aimed at tackling the country’s high inflation, which hit 5.91 per cent last year. (more…)

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