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Euro Hits 4-Year Low on Mistranslated French Comment

  
  Education
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The euro fell to a fresh four-year low versus the dollar on Friday after the French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said he only saw good news in parity between the two currencies.

He used the French word “parite,” which can mean either “parity” or “exchange rate.”

Prime Minister Francois Fillon was referring to the general evolution of the exchange rate between the euro
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[EUR=X  1.1975    0.0006  (+0.05%)   ]
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and the dollar when he referred to the “parity” between the two currencies, a source close to the prime minister said on Friday.

Speaking at a news conference earlier, Fillon said: “I only see good news in the parity between the euro and dollar.

He later used the word “parity” in a different context to mean the general rate.

Controlling your Emotions

  
  Education
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Emotions-controlThe fact is, the majority of traders lose because they cannot control their emotions – and their emotions cause them to make irrational trades and lose.

Trading psychology is one of the keys to investment success, but its impact is not understood by many investors, who simply think they need a good trading method, but this is only part of the equation for winning at Stock market  trading.

The influence Of Hope and Fear

In trading psychology, two emotions that are constantly present are:

Hope and fear. One of the traders who recognized this was the legendary trader W D Gann. (more…)

UAE backs Dubai's banks

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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dubai-Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) — The yen weakened against higher- yielding currencies after the United Arab Emirates’ central bank said it “stands behind” the country’s banks, easing concern about a possible default by state-owned Dubai World.

The euro advanced for the first time in five days against the yen after the Abu Dhabi-based central bank of the U.A.E. said lenders will be able to borrow using a special facility tied to their current accounts. The Australian and New Zealand dollars rallied as demand rose for riskier assets after concern eased over credit losses in the Middle East.

“The decision by U.A.E. helped calm down credit woes,” said Akane Vallery Uchida, foreign-currency strategist in Tokyo at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc. “The yen, which was bought over jitters in Dubai, is being sold.”

Bill Lipschutz Quotes

  
  Education
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 Sultan of Currencies in the New Market Wizards and at the time Salomon Brothers largest and most successful forex trader for 8 years. 

 

”Missing an opportunity is as bad as being on the wrong side of a trade. Some people say (after they have the opportunity to realize a profit) ‘I was only playing with the market’s money’. That’s the most ridiculous thing I ever heard.”

”When you’re in a losing streak, your ability to properly assimilate and analyze information starts to become distorted because of the impairment of the confidence factor, which is a by-product of a losing streak. You have to work very hard to restore that confidence, and cutting back trading size helps achieve that goal.”
”I don’t have a problem letting my profits run, which many traders do. You have to be able to let your profits run. I don’t think you can consistently be a winner trading if you’re banking on being right more than 50 percent of the time. You have to figure out how to make money by being right only 20 to 30 percent of the time.”
”Successful traders constantly ask themselves: What am I doing right? What am I doing wrong? How can I do what I am doing better? How can I get more information? Courage is a quality important to excel as a trader. It’s not enough to simply have the insight to see something apart from the rest of the crowd, you also need to have the courage to act on it and stay with it.”
”It’s very difficult to be different from the rest of the crowd the majority of the time, which by definition is what you’re doing if you’re a successful trader.”
”So many people want the positive rewards of being a successful trader without being willing to go through the commitment and pain. And there’s a lot of pain.”
”Avoid the temptation of wanting to be completely right.”  

Physics Envy and Economic Theory

  
Education, Video
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Economists were seduced by physics because it made their claims seem more scientific. Their belief was in the concept of equilibrium, in which it would be impossible to profit from trading around a circle of goods or a circle of currencies without actually producing anything. Of course, that is possible, and that did happen, and that’s because you’re never really at equilibrium.

Five Faiths Needed for Trading Success

  
  Education
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  1. You must have faith in yourself. You must believe that you can trade as well as anyone else.. This belief arises from doing your homework and staying disciplined in your system. Understanding that it is not you, that it is your system that wins and loses based on market action will keep the negative self talk at bay.
  2. You must have faith in your method. You must study the historical performance of your trading method so you can see how it works on charts. Also it is possible to quantify and back test mechanical trading systems for specific historical  performance in different kinds of markets.
  3. You must have faith in your risk management. You must manage your risk per trade so it brings you to a 0% mathematical probability of ruin. A 1% to 2% of total capital at risk per trade will give almost any system a 0% risk of ruin.
  4. You must have faith that you will win in the long term if you stay on course. Reading the stories of successful traders and how they did it will give you a sense that if they can do it you can to. If trading is something you are passionate about all that separates you from success is time.
  5. You need faith in your stock. It helps in your trading if you trade stocks, commodities, or currencies that you 100% believe in. Traders tend to have no trouble trading a bullish system with $AAPL if they believe it is the greatest company to ever exist and will go to $500 within six months. It is much easier to follow an always in trend reversal system with Gold if you believe it tends to trend strongly one way or the other. Of course you have to follow a defined system and take the signals even if it goes against your opinions but believing in your trading vehicle helps tremendously.

Trading lessons from the road

  
  Education
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Two lessons from the road:

– It only takes a small slip-up to create big negative effects. Conversely, the road to success in many of life’s ventures seems to be more incremental. Think of the engineering behind cars, space shuttles etc. One small error can lead to total disaster, but for everything to work, so many things have to be ‘right’. A related pattern is the  carry trade in the currency market, where returns are incremental as the high yielding currencies slowly appreciate, but when we witness episodes of carry trade unwinding, things are not nearly as orderly.

– Missing my junction would be less of a problem if I was less tired and fatigued, because I would feel less downhearted at having to do the additional driving. However, it is when we have energy and are wide awake that we are least likely to miss our junctions, and we are more likely to miss them when we least want to. This reminds me of insurance not working when it comes to claiming, of correlations heading to one in times of crisis, and of markets being flush with liquidity, only for it to dry up right when it counts.

Mark Douglas : Trading in the Zone

  
  Education
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Without doubt the foremost reading, it seems, in trading circles. Douglas’ book, in my view, deserves its place at the top of a traders reading list. Whether you are trading currencies, commodities, stocks or futures this book will have something for everyone. The book tackles the psychology involved in being a successful trader. The book attempts to give the reader the tools to develop the Confidence and discipline to become and consistent winner.

I think the book is a superb read and although I cannot say right now how succesful it has been, it is one of the few books that I pick up nearly every day and read another chapter again and remind myself of some of Douglas’  inspiring ideas and thoughts.

The book ends with a great 20 trades learning excercise that is a must.

The key learnings I get from reading this book :

1)The market is random; you cannot predict it. Unless you know every individual who has a position in the market and you know their strategy for each trade it is impossible to know what will happen next.Give up trying to predict, and focus on the now moment and managing yourself , your money and your strategy.

2)The Power of Association. Douglas uses throughout the book a story about a boy and his fear of  dogs. He uses this analogy to describe how previous experiences that have given pain, or expected pain, to us will mean that our mind will do everything possible to protect itself from future pain when it is exposed to similar circumstances at some point again in the future. i.e. If you recognise a market pattern where previously you lost a trade you will be compelled to exit the trade at that point or not take that trade on; because you will not want to experience pain. Douglas again talks about the here and now and describes how we can overcome these internal obstacles.

101%….Don’t miss to Read this Book !!!!

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