Archives of “confidence” tag

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THE THREE PHASES OF A TRADE

  
  Education
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The ANTICIPATION Phase:  this is where all the left hand chart reading takes place in preparation for the right hand chart battle. It’s the PROCESS that precedes the ACTION to put on a trade. A technical trader anticipates that a past price pattern will repeat again, so he identifies the pattern, locates a current one and determines a suitable match is present.  Technical analysis is nothing more than finding previous price patterns matched with current market conditions.  Traders anticipate such repetitive behavior based on human nature and seek to take advantage of it.

The ACTION phase involves hitting the BUY key based on the previous ANTICIPATION process.  Since no one can tell the future or what the right hand side of the chart will reveal, the ACTION is based on the confidence that the trader will do what is right once a trade is put on, which is to exit gracefully at a pre-determined loss line or exit humbly at a pre-determined profit target (P2), fully accepting either/or, or an OUTCOME between one or the other, depending on current market conditions. (more…)

Sentiment Cycle

  
  Education
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RETURNING CONFIDENCE
On the upside, the area where churning takes place is in between the Returning Confidence phase and the Subtle Warning phase, after a significant advance has already taken place. This often appears in the form of a head and shoulders top on weekly or monthly charts. By the time confidence returns, the market has already been going up for ages while the retracement patterns become ever larger, each one scarier than the last.
To technical traders, this type of price action tells us that the market is getting tired. Perceived bull market volatility excites investors. They waited forever on the sidelines for fundamentals to confirm that the move up was ‘real’. The coast is finally clear and they jump in with both feet. This phase typically ends with a failure on test of top, and the big, super scary ‘buy the dip’ pullback begins.
BUY THE BIG DIP
The public continues to pour money in, lured by glowing good news and economic data. After the long move up, finding attractive stocks becomes difficult for technical traders and market veterans. Traders chase momentum where they find it. Investors believe that the game is back on, and they are willing to take big risk and buy big dips. This Big Dip usually comes after a failed test of top in the Returning Confidence phase. The Big Dip typically takes price below the 50-day simple moving average and quite often, to the 200-day moving average. This is where ABC Corrections are typically found.
ENTHUSIASM
Once it is widely accepted that economic and corporate fundamentals are supporting higher prices, a bell goes off. The bull survived The Big Dip. Those who had previously been afraid now have plenty of reasons – and proof – that it is safe to go back into the market and buy again.  (more…)

The 10 Laws of Lifetime Growth

  
  Education
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THE LAWSof Lifetime Growth:

LAW ONE: Always make your future bigger than your past. Find out more

LAW TWO: Always make your learning greater than your experience. Find out more

LAW THREE: Always make your contribution bigger than your reward. Find out more

LAW FOUR: Always make your performance greater than your applause. Find out more

LAW FIVE: Always make your gratitude greater than your success. Find out more

LAW SIX: Always make your enjoyment greater than your effort. Find out more

LAW SEVEN: Always make your cooperation greater than your status. Find out more

LAW EIGHT: Always make your confidence greater than your comfort. Find out more

LAW NINE: Always make your purpose greater than your money. Find out more

LAW TEN: Always make your questions bigger than your answers. Find out more

27 Motivational Quotes for Traders

  
  Education
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1. IF A TRADER DOES NOT UNDERSTAND WHAT HAPPENS TO HIM PSYCHOLOGICALLY WHILE IN A TRADE, HE IS DOOMED TO LOSE UNTIL HE DOES OR HE RUNS OUT OF MONEY.
2. THE MARKET PAYS YOU TO BE DISCIPLINED.
3. BE DISCIPLINED EVERY DAY, EVERY TRADE AND THE MARKET WILL REWARD YOU.
4. ALWAYS LOWER YOUR TRADE SIZE WHEN YOURE TRADING POORLY.
5. NEVER TURN A WINNER INTO A LOSER.
6. YOU’RE BIGGEST LOSER CANNOT EXCEED YOUR BIGGEST WINNER.
7. DEVELOP A METHODOLOGY AND STICK WITH IT.
8. BE YOURSELF. DON’T TRY TO BE SOMEONE ELSE.
9. YOU ALWAYS WANT TO BE ABLE TO COME BACK AND PLAY THE NEXT DAY.
10. EARN THE RIGHT TO TRADE BIGGER.
11. GET OUT OF YOUR LOSERS.
12. THE FIRST LOSS IS THE BEST LOSS.
13. DON’T HOPE AND PRAY.
14. DON’T SPECULATE.
15. NEVER TAKE A BIG LOSS.
16. HIT SINGLES NOT HOME RUNS.
17. CONSISTENCY BUILDS CONFIDENCE.
18. LEARN TO SWEAT OUT YOUR WINNERS.
19. MAKE THE SAME TYPES OF TRADES OVER AND OVER AGAIN.
20. BE A BRICKLAYER.
21. DON’T OVER ANALYZE.
22. ALL TRADERS ARE EQUAL IN THE EYES OF THE MARKET.
23. IT’S THE MARKET ITSELF.
24. ITS BORING. ITS A JOB. PATIENCE.
25. 70% OF THE MONEY FLOWING COMES FROM INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS.
26. STRONG VOLUME IS 150% OF NORMAL VOLUME.
27. TRADE WHAT YOU SEE, NOT WHAT YOU THINK.

12 Insightful Thoughts from “The Most Important Thing” by Howard Marks

  
Education, Life
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1. People usually expect the future to be like the past and underestimate the potential for change.

2. When everyone believes something is risky, their unwillingness to buy usually reduces its price to the point where it’s not risky at all. Broadly negative opinion can make it the least risky thing, since all optimism has been driven out of its price.

3. In investing, as in life, there are very few sure things. Values can evaporate, estimates can be wrong, circumstances can change and “sure things” can fail. However, there are two concepts we can hold to with confidence: • Rule number one: most things will prove to be cyclical. • Rule number two: some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget rule number one.

4. Very early in my career, a veteran investor told me about the three stages of a bull market. Now I’ll share them with you. • The first, when a few forward-looking people begin to believe things will get better • The second, when most investors realize improvement is actually taking place • The third, when everyone concludes things will get better forever

5. Investors hold to their convictions as long as they can, but when the economic and psychological pressures become irresistible, they surrender and jump on the bandwagon.

6. Even when an excess does develop, it’s important to remember that “overpriced” is incredibly different from “going down tomorrow.” • Markets can be over- or underpriced and stay that way—or become more so—for years.

7. If everyone likes it, it’s probably because it has been doing well. Most people seem to think outstanding performance to date presages outstanding future performance. Actually, it’s more likely that outstanding performance to date has borrowed from the future and thus presages subpar performance from here on out. (more…)

6 Random Thoughts

  
  Education
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1) Everyone needs a “mental break” from trading once in a while. The best time to take one is during corrective markets. It helps you protect capital and confidence.

2) If you have a -50% loss, it takes a +100% gain to get it back. In other words, CUT YOUR LOSSES!

3)  If you have trouble with discipline and staying away from the market, turn off your computer and get out of your chair. If you sit in the barbershop long enough, you’ll eventually get a haircut.

4) The “fear of missing out” is the downfall of most traders.

5) Whoever said that money doesn’t buy happiness clearly didn’t know where to shop.

6) “There is nothing new on Wall Street. What has happened in the past will happen again and again and again. This is because human nature does not change, and it is human emotion that always gets in the way of human intelligence. Of this I am sure.” — Jesse Livermore

Trading Wisdom

  
  Education
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“You are the sum total of ALL your experiences in life.

And if you discount ANY of them ~ you negate and discount your very ability to be a consistent and successful trader.

So ~ what IS your definition of CONFIDENT?

If we look up the definition of the word “confident” in Roget’s Thesaurus as you know I like to do, we can find the following:

“…believing, undoubting, unhesitating, without a doubt, convinced, satisfied, assured, unafraid, courageous, unscarred, undaunted, daring, venturesome…”

Is that you?  Is that your definition?  Or, is this your definition:

“…hopeful, expecting, try to reassure, hold out hope, make promise to…”

Or do you know?  Right now, if someone were to ask you what your definition of confidence is ~ what would you say?  Right off the top of your head? (more…)

The Confident Trader

  
  Education
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Confidence overcomes fear. Confidence also overcomes greed because a component of greed is an underlying sense of scarcity. To be confident doesn’t mean that every trade or trading day will be profitable. What it does mean is that when you look to where you want to go, you know that you can figure out a strategy that will get you there. And you know you can execute that strategy in a consistent manner. A successful strategy doesn’t mean anything if you don’t or can’t or won’t employ it.

Theoretically we should be as successful at trading and investing as our trading and investing strategies. Unfortunately the vast majority of traders and investors fall far short of the results of their strategies. They trip over themselves again and again on the way to employing their methods. My work as a trading coach is to enable traders around the world to become as good as their methods.

Confidence need not waver when you have dips and troughs and plateaus in your trading. Confidence is developed when you realize you can correct mistakes and learn from failures. You don’t persist in failing. You learn and move on. You don’t fear repeating the failure either, you simply anticipate correcting it.

Self esteem is basically the sum total of all the thoughts we have about ourselves. This is quite important because we do tend to become what we think about ourselves. The noted philosopher and psychologist, William James, said, “People, in general, become what they think of themselves.” Not only did he say this but he added that this was the essence of all we had learned in psychology in the prior 100 years. (more…)

Buffett: Capitalism Works

  
  Education
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Here’s a recent interview with Warren Buffett in which he discusses a broad array of topics.  It’s worth 15 minutes if you have the time, but here’s the bullet points:

  • The US economy is still growing and “will continue” to grow into 2014.
  • Confidence creeps into a system while fear overwhelms it quickly.  It takes time to get the confidence back.
  • The American system has always persevered.  We’ve questioned capitalism time and time again, but the system works.
  • We’re 6 TIMES better off now than when Buffett was born.
  • The recovery is being driven by the “natural juices of capitalism and not the government”.
  • Advice for entrepreneurs: listen to your customers.
  • The capitalist system works because it unleashes human potential.

The Difference: Mediocrity vs. Greatness

  
  Education
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In Trading, the STATISTICS show that smarts, experience, etc. are not the differentiating factor.
The BEST (most successful guys I know and work with) have winning %’s of less than 50%.. actually, the average is between 45-55% but the point is, basically, winning percentages don’t matter – so they might as well be a random event.

 So, what does make a difference?

 

  • CONVICTION in ideas
  • INTERNAL CONFIDENCE
  • TRUSTING YOURSELF
  • GETTING BIG IN TRADES you believe in
  • LETTING WINNERS RUN
  • CUTTING LOSERS QUICKLY
  • SWITCHING DIRECTIONS QUICKLY

 

 These are many of the factors that allow some people to become monster traders over time. It’s not my opinion, just my observations. 

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