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China’s Global Times reports 30 separate measures being taken today to stabilise China markets

The GT does not outline what the 30 separate measures are unfortunately.

The piece says the outbreak will subtract 2% points from GDP growth and, in response:
  • officials have moved swiftly to implement growth stabilizing measures
GT lead with the People’s Bank of China action to come today
  • PBOC to inject 1.2 trillion yuan into the market … through reserve repurchase operations
Its a shame the GT does not elaborate with the info
  • the net effect is not a 1.2 tln yuan injection due to slightly over 1 tln yuan of funds maturing today.
  • The net injection is in the order of 150bn yuan.

Not doing so raises the question they have been not quite so forthright elsewhere. Which is not helpful. Anyway, this is what the article says further (in brief)

four government agencies that oversee the economy, including the Ministry of Finance (MOF), the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), issued financial support aimed at combating the coronavirus … 30 measures include
  • CSRC – would release and study tools to prevent risks and ease market panic
  • MOF released measures including offering loans with up to 50 percent discounts on interest to companies
  • Special financial services will also be provided for those affected by the epidemic, along with small and medium-sized businesses
  • Other agencies, such as the Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission measures include providing help for companies to resume production and expand foreign supplies for necessary products during this critical period.  

If you are trying to escape from Japan this might help – how Carlos Ghosn did it

Ex-Nissan CEO Ghosn escaped inside a road case, a box used for concert equipment such as speakers, controllers, instruments and what have you.

The Wall Street Journal have a piece up on what they say is how Ghosn got out, and why:
  • escape involved a 300-mile sprint across Japan on a fast train
  • from Tokyo to the Osaka airport
  • then inside a large black box, generally used for concert equipment, with breathing holes drilled in the bottom, into a waiting private jet
  • flown to Turkey, then Lebanon
  • Ghosn … made his own, final decision to go through with the plan … after signs his trial might drag on for years, and amid the court’s refusal for him to have contact with his wife during the holidays
The conviction rate in Japan approaches 99%. LOL.
Besides, if Ghosn’s box was handled by typical roadies he would have suffered enough 😉
Ex-Nissan CEO Ghosn escaped inside a road case

Suzuki postpones India auto plant opening amid sales slump World’s No. 4 car market skids as tighter credit and high

Japan’s Suzuki Motor has postponed the opening of a new plant in western India, Nikkei has learned. The plant, originally scheduled to go online in April 2020, will now begin operating next July.

Suzuki’s decision to postpone the startup is the latest in a string of efforts by Indian carmakers to deal with a softening market. Suzuki Motor Gujarat, a wholly owned local subsidiary, is building the new plant in the state of Gujarat. The $550 million factory will raise the company’s capacity in India by 250,000 cars annually to 2.25 million.

India’s auto market is sluggish and likely to remain so, with new car sales in 2019 expected to fall below the previous year’s levels for the first time in five years. Suzuki was forced to push back the opening of the new plant to assess demand.

India is the world’s fourth-largest auto market, with 4.4 million new cars sold in 2018, ahead of Germany’s 3.82 million. However, sales began falling last November and the declines widened to double digits starting in April. The slowdown in India has confounded automakers around the world, which had been banking on growth. That is exacerbating a global sales slump.

Maruti Suzuki, Suzuki’s local subsidiary and the country’s largest automaker, and Mahindra & Mahindra, the third-largest local manufacturer, idled plants for several days in the July to September quarter due to sluggish sales. Maruti laid off 3,000 contract employees in August, while Tata Motors, the No. 4 carmaker, has accepted a 65 billion rupee ($910 million) bailout from Tata Group, the conglomerate to which it belongs.

Suzuki has set an ambitious target for India, hoping to raise sales to 5 million cars a year by 2030. The move to postpone the opening of the Gujarat plant is temporary, the company says, but the outlook is murky. It may have to reassess its long-term strategy if the opening is pushed back for a long time.

“I think we need to watch [for] maybe three months to see what the market is up to in January before we can make a somewhat more certain prediction,” said Maruti Chairman R.C. Bhargava in an interview with Nikkei on Oct. 24.

On Tuesday, Suzuki said it expects sales in India to fall 20% on the year to about 1.4 million cars in the year ending March 2020. With sales tepid in the country, which accounted for 30% of Suzuki’s total revenue, the company’s net profit for the current business year is now forecast at 140 billion yen ($1.28 billion), down 22% from the previous year.

(more…)

Jim Chanos Is Bearish On China

Jim Chanos is bearish on China and I think he has a very good point. China suffers from huge overcapacity in every sector and their statistics are made up.

jim_chanos

“Jim Chanos, head of investment firm Kynikos Associates and famous for his call to short Enron in 2001, has found his next big target.

Chanos and other China bears say the country has overcapacity in just about every sector of its economy, and the government’s massive stimulus isn’t working. They think China is simply covering things up with faulty statistics.

For example, they point to the huge reported increases in car sales in contrast to numbers showing little growth in gasoline consumption, which suggests state-run companies are buying huge numbers of cars and putting them in storage.” in The Daily Crux

Four Phases of Traders

1. Being unconsciously incompetent. That’s when you don’t know anything about the markets. Unfortunately most people get in the markets, on the last wave of a bull market. The only thing required is to be in the markets. Everything is going up.
2.Consciously incompetent. That’s when you’ve realised that making money in the markets has nothing to do with buying low and sell it higher. So you start learning technical analysis. But you still loose money. 
3. Consciously competent. If you haven’t given up by now. You have started to gain experience. You can read the markets and feel the pulse. You’re discovering that there are more advanced things that you can use;Indicators. But unfortunately you still lose money. 
4. Unconsciously competent. That’s the zone guys. That’s where you’ve managed to put all the pieces together. You’ve been through it all. You’ve learned to master yourself, and you’ve done such a great job, that you’re trading without forcing yourself to do it. You’re relaxed, and all the pieces, are there. Think of the way you guys drive your cars. You don’t think of it, you just do it!

17 Maxims for Life

1  Accept the fact that some days you’re the pigeon, and some days you’re the statue!
2  Always keep your words soft and sweet, just in case you have to eat them.
3  Always read stuff that will make you look good if you die in the middle of it.
4  Drive carefully… It’s not only cars that can be recalled by their Maker.
5  If you can’t be kind, at least have the decency to be vague.
6  If you lend someone  Rs 1000 and never see that person again, it was probably worth it.
7 It may be that your sole purpose in life is simply to serve as a warning to others.
8  Never buy a car you can’t push.
9  Never put both feet in your mouth at the same time, because then you won’t have a leg to stand on.
10  Since it’s the early worm that gets eaten by the bird, sleep late. (more…)

Don't Mess With Women

fact-Bottle of Wine
(Women will LOVE this one!)
A woman and a man are involved in a car accident on a snowy, cold Monday morning; it’s a bad one. Both of their cars are totally demolished, but amazingly neither of them is hurt. God works in mysterious ways. After they crawl out of their cars, the man is yelling about women drivers. The woman says, ‘So, you’re a man. That’s interesting. I’m a woman. Wow, just look at our cars! There’s nothing left, but we’re unhurt. This must be a sign from God that we should be friends and live in peace for the rest of our days.’
Flattered, the man replies, ‘Oh yes, I agree completely, this must be a sign from God! But you’re still at fault…women shouldn’t be allowed to drive..’
The woman continues, ‘And look at this, here’s another miracle. My car is completely demolished but this bottle of wine didn’t break. Surely God wants us to drink this wine and celebrate our good fortune.’
She hands the bottle to the man. The man nods his head in agreement, opens it and drinks half the bottle and then hands it back to the woman.
The woman takes the bottle, puts the cap back on and hands it back to the man.
The man asks, ‘Aren’t you having any?’
The woman replies, ‘No. I think I’ll just wait for the police…’

MORAL OF THE STORY:
Don’t mess with women.

Trading lessons from the road

Two lessons from the road:

– It only takes a small slip-up to create big negative effects. Conversely, the road to success in many of life’s ventures seems to be more incremental. Think of the engineering behind cars, space shuttles etc. One small error can lead to total disaster, but for everything to work, so many things have to be ‘right’. A related pattern is the  carry trade in the currency market, where returns are incremental as the high yielding currencies slowly appreciate, but when we witness episodes of carry trade unwinding, things are not nearly as orderly.

– Missing my junction would be less of a problem if I was less tired and fatigued, because I would feel less downhearted at having to do the additional driving. However, it is when we have energy and are wide awake that we are least likely to miss our junctions, and we are more likely to miss them when we least want to. This reminds me of insurance not working when it comes to claiming, of correlations heading to one in times of crisis, and of markets being flush with liquidity, only for it to dry up right when it counts.

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