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Jim Chanos Is Bearish On China

Jim Chanos is bearish on China and I think he has a very good point. China suffers from huge overcapacity in every sector and their statistics are made up.

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“Jim Chanos, head of investment firm Kynikos Associates and famous for his call to short Enron in 2001, has found his next big target.

Chanos and other China bears say the country has overcapacity in just about every sector of its economy, and the government’s massive stimulus isn’t working. They think China is simply covering things up with faulty statistics.

For example, they point to the huge reported increases in car sales in contrast to numbers showing little growth in gasoline consumption, which suggests state-run companies are buying huge numbers of cars and putting them in storage.” in The Daily Crux

Ken Rogoff: "China Property Market Collapse Starting"

Bloomberg TV conducted an interview with Ken Rogoff in Hong Kong (the same way you land in New York before you take off in London via the now defunct Concorde) in which the Harvard professor recently made famous for his words of caution that overlevering sovereigns always eventually leads to economic slow down, financial collapse, and ultimately bankruptcy, warned, when discussing China real estate, that “you’re starting to see that collapse in property and it’s going to hit the banking system.” With this coming days ahead of the massive Agri Bank of China IPO, it is interesting just how much influence the person who has been warning all along that the world is headed on an unsustainable path will finally have, now that the permabullish cackle of the MSM punditry has finally been discredited as futures are about to reenter triple digit reality. Oh yes, and score one for Jim Chanos, and all those who have long been warning about the inevitable Chinese bubble pop. Additionally, in discussing the suddenly prevalent topic of perpetual stimulus, and particularly envisioning Paul Krugman’s thesis that the world will end unless another couple of trillion are thrown into the fire of irresponsible deficit spending, Rogoff says “I couldn’t disagree more… Just to keep drinking bottles of aspirin because you are worried you are going to get a headache, or it is going to turn into a migraine, it’s too much prophylaxis.”

Full clip although none of this is news:

Be Yourself

Everyone in this business will tell you how to be and what to do, but the bottom line is that you’ve got to always be yourself – flaws, emotions, stupidity, and all.

There’s a saying that the stock market is an expensive place to figure how who you really are but I completely disagree. Through the many years I’ve been trading, I’ve learned much more about myself and the way I am both good and bad than I think I would have any other way. And, for that I’m so very grateful.

It is with little doubt that my experience in the markets have in turn made me into a much better human being. For example, one who thinks before acting, one that appreciates the importance of looking at situations from different points of view, one that knows that you can do everything right but still be wrong, one that understands the influence that emotion has on decision-making, one that remembers that no matter what mistakes you and I make today – tomorrow we will have another opportunity to do better. I’ve learned a great deal more, but I think you get the point.

Speaking of which, a number of people have asked me recently that if train people to “be more like me” in my mentorship group. The truth is that I try my darndest to never do that. My goal with those who I personally mentor is to help them become who they really are and, by extension, to take full advantage of their own personality and skills whatever they may be and at whatever level they currently are. The primary problem, however, is that many of us really believe the key to success is to be more like others whether it be Warren Buffett, David Einhorn, George Soros, Doug Kass, Jim Chanos, Whitney Tilson, Jim Cramer, or whoever you admire and respect. As you know, one of the fastest growing businesses on the Internet right now is to enable you in new and exciting ways to trade and invest just like others, but in my view, that will only take you so far in your personal journey. In the markets, sooner or later, you have to find your own path!

Each of us have our own skills, strengths, weaknesses and personalities and matching those with a strategy you can use and develop over time is the closest key to your future success that I can help you with.

Bottom line – don’t be like me or anyone else for that matter, but instead just be yourself. Use this time in your life to find ways to take full advantage of your own God-given talents and skills as you develop them. While it is ok and, in fact recommended, that you try to learn as much as you can from others (I know I have), at the same time you must also understand and appreciate that to true key to success is to find your own path just like every trader and investor who you so admire right now has already done.

JIM CHANOS: Charity Can Be A Sign Of Fraud

Legendary short seller Jim Chanos gave an extensive interview to Salon.com about how to spot fraud and corruption in business.022609Wiesel19BS

 It’s an incredible coincidence that the story was published today, since the news broke that former Enron CEO Jeff Skilling, a man Chanos helped put behind bars, could be getting out of jail early.

Enron is held up as the paragon of 1990s corporate greed. There, not everything was as it seemed despite excellent press all over the business world and a great reputation.

The point is that companies can build amazing brands without being amazing businesses, and as Chanos points out, part of that brand can be doing charity work. (more…)

The Four Main Parts of James Chanos’ China Argument

Note: The commentary that follows has been taken from Jim Chanos’ speech to a group of investors, on the subject of China’s economy.  The video of this speech can be viewed below.

 

 

 

 

 

 



Hedge fund manager Jim Chanos has generated some controversy over the past few months because he has had the temerity to argue that China is experiencing an asset bubble.  Skeptics argue that he misunderstands the nature of the Chinese economy.

There are four main parts to his argument:

•    GDP drives economic activity.
•    Local party bosses have an incentive to game the system
•    Real estate speculation
•    Overbuilding of industrial and commercial real estate

Let’s take these arguments one by one.

1) GDP drives economic activity

In most industrialized countries, GDP is what Chanos calls a residual: it is the result of economic activity.  But in China, GDP growth is seen as sacrosanct, and Beijing sets a GDP growth target every year.  Local party bosses act to ensure that they meet this target.

2) Local party bosses have an incentive to game the system

Since GDP growth is explicitly stated as a public policy, local political bosses have an incentive to make sure that they contribute to the country’s efforts to meet the GDP target growth rate.  In practice, this means that local municipalities can, for example, meet revenue targets by selling off land to developers.  Party bosses have an incentive to sell as much land as possible, regardless of whether doing so creates too much supply.

3) Real estate speculation

One of the main arguments advanced against Chanos’ China thesis is that real estate speculators in China have to have more equity than do their American counterparts. The implication is that China won’t suffer from a meltdown of real estate.  But this argument, while possibly correct, misses Chanos’ larger point.  Speculators in Beijing buy up multiple apartments, seeing them as a store of value, akin to commodities like gold or palladium.

Implicit in this practice is the notion that there is a greater fool down the line.  Treating real estate as a store of value, rather than an investment that produces real or imputed monthly cash flows in the form of rent defies economic logic. (more…)

Jim Chanos on Investment Sytle ,Short Selling ,Contrarian Trading & China

Graham & Doddsville, a Columbia Business School investment newsletter, has recently scored an interview with Jim Chanos, the founder and Managing Partner of Kynikos Associates and one of the world’s most successful short-sellers. His most celebrated short-sale of Enron shares was dubbed by Barron’s as “the market call of the decade, if not the past fifty years. Obviously, he’s still bearish on China’s property market and banking sector and his positions are starting to move his way. In this long (though very insightful) interview with G&D, Chanos talks about his background, investment style, short-selling, contrarian trading and, of course, China.

Here is an excerpt of the original interview (full interview below that… it’s long but it’s worth the read).

On Wall Street ethics:

“… I handed out a two page memo to the senior banker discussing the impact of buying back stock. The senior banker looked at me with an icy stare and stated that we were not in the business of recommending share buybacks to our clients; we were in the business of selling debt. This was my first douse of cold water regarding Wall Street and I became pretty disillusioned after that episode. I had learned that Wall Street wasn’t necessarily doing things in their clients’ best interest…” 

On timing a short-sale:

“I recommended a short position in Baldwin- United at $24 based on language in the 10-K and 10-Qs, uneconomic annuities, leverage issues and a host of other concerns. The stock promptly doubled on me. This was a good introduction to the fact that in investing, you can be really right but temporarily quite wrong… I went home to visit my parents for Christmas and received a phone call from Bob Holmes telling me that I was getting a great Christmas present – the state insurance regulator had seized Baldwin-United’s insurance subsidiaries.” 

On being a contrarian:

“… numerous studies have shown that most rational people’s decision-making breaks down in an environment of negative reinforcement… You’re basically told that you’re wrong in every way imaginable every day. It takes a certain type of individual to drown that noise and negative reinforcement out and to remind oneself that their work is accurate and what they’re hearing is not.” 

On shorting:

“We try not to short on valuation, though at some price even reasonably good businesses will be good shorts due to limitations of growth. We try to focus on businesses where something is going wrong. Better yet, we look for companies that are trying — often legally but aggressively — to hide the fact that things are going wrong through their accounting, acquisition policy or other means. Those are our bread-and-butter ideas…. Valuation itself is probably the last thing we factor into our decision. Some of our very best shorts have been cheap or value stocks. We look more at the business to see if there is something structurally wrong or about to go wrong, and enter the valuation last.

…You need to be able to weather being told you’re wrong all the time. Short sellers are constantly being told they’re wrong. A lot of people don’t function well in an environment of negative reinforcement and short selling is the ultimate negative reinforcement profession, as you are going against the grain of a lot of well-financed people who want to prove you wrong. It takes a certain temperament to disregard this.” 

On China:

“This is a bubble that has a long way to go on the downside. Residential real estate prices, in aggregate in China, at construction cost, are equal to 350% of GDP. The only two economies that ever saw higher numbers at roughly 375% were Japan in 1989 and Ireland in 2007, and both had epic property collapses. So the data does not look good for China.”

In China, everyone is incented by GDP. They are fixated on growth. In the West, we go about our economic lives, and at the end of the year the statisticians say, this year your growth was 3%. But in China, it’s still centrally planned. All state policy goes through the banking system. They decide what they want growth to be and then they try and figure out how to get there.” 

Full interview below. (more…)

Veneziani, The Greatest Trades of All Time

Vincent W. Veneziani’s The Greatest Trades of All Time: Top Traders Making Big Profits from the Crash of 1929 to Today (Wiley, 2011) is not the greatest trading book of all time. The problem is that most of its material is readily available in greater detail elsewhere. For instance, if you want to read about John Paulson’s subprime short, the obvious source is The Greatest Trade Ever by Gregory Zuckerman. Or why read ten pages about Jesse Livermore when we have Reminiscences of a Stock Operator? The only original material comes from the author’s interviews with Kyle Bass and Jim Chanos.

For those who are new to trading, however, this book provides an introduction to some icons of the business and their winning trades. Featured, in addition to Livermore, Paulson, Bass, and Chanos, are Paul Tudor Jones, John Templeton, George Soros, David Einhorn, Martin Schwartz, and John Arnold. The final chapter deals briefly with Phillip Falcone, David Tepper, Andrew Hall, and Greg Lippmann.

Each chapter has a life of its own, but all conclude with very brief sections that recreate the person’s trading strategies and his top traits. For instance, we read that “Jones’s brazen utilization of Elliot [sic] wave theory is legendary.” (p. 43) Jones was not a wave counter; rather, he embraced Elliott’s notion of repeating cycles. The author shows a chart overlaying data from 1982-1986 on 1932-1936 data and notes the striking correlation. Jones “extrapolated a time period with a high correlation and began making investments as if he were living in the past with a roadmap to the future” (p. 38), a technique that was chronicled in the 1987 PBS documentary about him. (Despite the best efforts of Jones and his lawyers, the film is still available online.) Veneziani also notes that “Jones helped define the cliché Wall Street traits that much of the industry and its participants attempt to emulate today.” (p. 44) Among them: intensity, keeping a comprehensive viewpoint, and having a methodical approach. (more…)

Jim Chanos Presentation On China

Short seller Jim Chanos has been bearish on China for a while now.  Here is a presentation he made making his case.  It is 57 Minutes long.



China Banks Tightening Standards for Loans To Property Sector (iMarketNews)
Shanghai equities at lowest since Oct (People’s Daily Online)
Economic fears pull US copper futures below $3/lb (Reuters India)
China curbs companies’ capital raising (FT.com)
Tightening fears give rise to China ‘buy’ opportunities (FT.com)
Chinese Tightening Unlikely to Cause Copper Collapse (WSJ.com)
Chinese mortgage rates rise as loan clampdown bites (Reuters)

There are also geopolitical issues going on about the internet, currency and arms sales.  So interesting times folks.  FYI, Chanos correctly shorted Moody’s while Buffett was buying in May 2007.