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Lagarde: There is no need to overreact to euro gains

  
  Analysis
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Comments from Lagarde in the ECB opening statement:

Lagarde Sept 10
  • Says ECB will monitor FX rate
  • Strength of recovery remains surrounded by uncertainty
  • Rebound broadly in line with previous expectations
  • Domestic demand recorded significant recovery
  • Uncertainty weighing on consumer spending and business investment
  • Inflation dampened by energy prices
  • Ample monetary stimulus remains necessary
  • Incoming data suggest notable recovery in consumption
  • ECB will carefully assess the euro’s effect on inflation
  • New infections are a headwind to the short term outlook
  • Repeats that an ample degree of easing needed
  • Fiscal measures should be targeted and temporary
The euro jumped to 1.1891 from 1.1850 on the headline from Lagarde.

European shares end with solid gains as risk on sentiment increases

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Hopes f him him him rom Gilead news propel European shares higher.

European indices are ending the session with solid gains on hopes from the Gilead remdesivir drug,
  • German DAX, +3.0%
  • France’s CAC, +2.32%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +2.77%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +3.24%
In the European 10 year note sector are mostly lower with the exception of Italy (their credit rating was lowered by Fitch after the close yesterday)
Hopes f him him him _rom Gilead news propel European shares higher.

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US stocks suffer worst day since 2008

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Closing levels for the main US indexes

Closing levels for the main US indexes
US stocks fell to fresh session lows of 8% late in the day but staged a small bounce late in the day to finish at slightly better levels.
Nonetheless, it was the worst day for US stock markets since 2008 and possibly the worst day ever for oil stocks.
Here is the damage:
  • S&P 500 -7.6% — a 226 point decline to 2746
  • DJIA a 7.8% decline or -2015 points to 23,849
  • Nasdaq -625 points to 7950 — a 7.3% decline
  • Toronto TSX -9.3%
These headlines all sound terrible and this was the worst day for US stocks since December 2008 but when you consider that we’re only back to the June lows, it doesn’t seem that bad. A fall to the 2018 lows would be a decline of 31%.

26 -W. D. Gann’s Never-Failing / Valuable Rules

  
Analysis, Education
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  1. Amount of capital to use: Divide your capital into 10 equal parts and never risk more than one-tenth of your capital on any one trade.
  2. Use stop loss orders. Always protect a trade when you make it with a stop loss order 1 to 3 cents, never more than 5 cents away, cotton 20 to 40, never more than 60 points away. (3 to 5 points away for stocks)
  3. Never overtrade. This would be violating your capital rules.
  4. Never let a profit run into a loss. After you once have a profit of 3 cents or more, raise your stop loss order so that you will have no loss of capital. For cotton when the profits are 60 points or more place stop where there will be no loss.
  5. Do not buck the trend. Never buy or sell if you are not sure of the trend according to your charts and rules.
  6. When in doubt, get out, and don’t get in when in doubt.
  7. Trade only in active markets. Keep out of slow, dead ones.
  8. Equal distribution of risk. Trade in 2 or 3 different commodities, if possible. (Trade in 4 or 5 stocks, is possible.) Avoid tying up all your capital in any one commodity or stock.
  9. Never limit your orders or fix a buying or selling price. Trade at the market.
  10. Don’t close your trades without a good reason. Follow up with a stop loss order to protect your profits.
  11. Accumulate a surplus. After you have made a series of successful trades, put some money into a surplus account to be used only in emergency or in times of panic.
  12. Never buy or sell just to get a scalping profit. Never buy just to get a dividend.
  13. Never average a loss. This is one of the worst mistakes a trader can make.
  14. Never get out of the market just because you have lost patience or get into the market because you are anxious from waiting.
  15. Avoid taking small profits and big losses.
  16. Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it at the time you make a trade.
  17. Avoid getting in and out of the market too often.
  18. Be just as willing to sell short as you are to buy. Let your object be to keep with the trend and make money.
  19. Never buy just because the price of a commodity or stock is low or sell short just because the price is high
  20. Be careful about pyramiding at the wrong time. Wait until the commodity or stock is very active and has crossed Resistance Levels before buying more and until it has broken out of the zone of distribution before
    selling more.
  21. Select the commodities that show strong uptrend to pyramid on the buying side and the ones that show definite downtrend to sell short. For stocks, select the stocks with small volume of shares outstanding to pyramid on the buying side and the ones with the largest volume of stock outstanding to sell short.
  22. Never hedge. If you are long of one commodity or stock and it starts to go down, do not sell another commodity or stock short to hedge it. Get out at the market; take your loss and wait for another opportunity.
  23. Never change your position in the market without good reason. When you make a trade, let it be for some good reason or according to some definite rule; then do not get out without a definite indication of a
    change in trend.
  24. Avoid increasing your trading after a long period of success or a period of profitable trades.
  25. Don’t guess when the market is top. Let the market prove it is top. Don’t guess when the market is bottom. Let the market prove it is bottom. By following definite rules, you can do this.
  26. Do not follow another man’s advice unless you know that he knows more than you do.
  27. Reduce trading after first loss; never increase.
  28. Avoid getting in wrong and out wrong; getting in right and out wrong; this is making double mistakes.

Six reasons why US stock markets have trounced the rest of the world

  
Analysis, US Market
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The lessons of equity markets don’t apply universally

It’s the US independence day holiday and this chart should give Americans more to cheer about than any other.
The lessons of equity markets don't apply universally
It shows equity returns since 1985 and the S&P 500 absolutely crushes every other major global index. The only one that’s even close is the MSCI World Index and that’s partly because it contains a heavy weighting in US equities.
Corporate America  truly is the champion of the world.

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Profiting from Market Trends- Tina Logan (Book Review )

  
  Education
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When the market accommodates, trend trading can be highly lucrative. The trick, of course, is to divine the market’s often fickle moods. Tina Logan sets out to help the trader identify and exploit the “good times” in Profiting from Market Trends: Simple Tools and Techniques for Mastering Trend Analysis(Wiley, 2014).
The book is divided into two parts. The first, trend development, has chapters on trend direction, trend duration, trend interruptions, early trend reversal warnings, and later trend reversal warnings. The second part, putting trend analysis to work, deals with the broad market, bull markets, bear markets, and monitoring the market trends; it also includes a case study of the current bull market. Throughout, the text is illustrated with TC2000 (Worden Brothers) charts.
Let’s look at the chapter on early trend reversal warnings to get a sense of the book as a whole. Logan summarizes the warnings in a table. In an uptrend they are: a bearish climax move such as a key reversal or an exhaustion gap, bearish divergence, failure to break a prior peak, change of slope—rising trendline, break of tight rising trendline, approaching a strong ceiling, and bearish candlestick reversal pattern. The warnings in a downtrend are the reverse. (more…)

Bruce Lee on Stock Trading

  
  Education
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If Bruce Lee was a trader I believe this would be his advice:

If you let the market show you the way you will win.

Do not trade your opinions about what the market will do next,  instead always ask the questions:

What is the chart saying? Where is support and resistance?

Is the market trending or range bound? At what price level will I know that it has changed?

Where is all the capital flowing? What keeps going up day after day?

If I enter a trade at what price level will I know I was wrong?

Can I quickly admit I am wrong about a trade and move on to the next one?

Water is so versatile it can be ice in the winter and steam in extreme heat. Traders do well to be a bull in a bull market and a bear in a bear market.

Water can wear through a rock if it is a strong river.  You can win in the markets if you keep trading the right method over and over again.

Water takes the form of whatever you put water into. Traders should trade for the market conditions that they find themselves in.

Water can only be reduced to its core elements hydrogen and oxygen but it can not be truly destroyed. If you only risk 1% per trade your account can experience a draw down in capital but it to can not be destroyed.

Hedge Fund Market Wizards – Joe Vidich

  
  Education
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A critical distinction of all great investing books is that every time you re-read them, you find insights that you somehow missed the previous times. Recently I had the opportunity to re-read some of the chapters in Hedge Fund Market Wizards. The section about equity traders is my favorite one, so I delved into it again. In this post, I am featuring some interesting observations from Jack Schwager’s conversation with Joe Vidich:

1. Position sizing is a great way to manage risk

The larger the position, the greater the danger that trading decisions will be driven by fear rather than by judgment and experience.

If you are diversified enough, then no single trade is particularly painful. The critical risk controls are being diversified and cutting your exposure when you don’t understand what the markets are doing and why you are wrong.

It is really important to manage your emotional attachment to losses and gains. You want to limit your size in any position so that fear does not become the prevailing instinct guiding your judgment. Everyone will have a different level. It also depends on what kind of stock it is. A 10 percent position might be perfectly okay for a large-cap stock, while a 3 percent position in a highflying mid-cap stock, which has frequent 30 percent swings, might be far too risky.

2. Charts are extremely important.

One of the best patterns is when a stock goes sideways for a long time in a narrow range and then has a sudden, sharp up move on large volume. That type of price action is a wake-up call that something is probably going on, and you need to look at it. Also, sometimes whatever is going on with that stock will also have implications for other stocks in the same sector. It can be an important clue. (more…)

10 Cruel Rules of Traders

  
  Education
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I) You will not buy low or sell high.

II) You will cut your winners and let your losers run.

III)  You will wish you owned more of what’s going up and less of what’s going down.

IV) You will be fearful when others are fearful.

V) You will fight the trend.

VI) You will not buy when there is blood in the streets.

VII) You will spend too much time worrying about low probability outcomes.

VII) You will invest for the long-term, or until we get a ten percent correction, whichever comes first.

IX) You will go broke taking small profits.

X) You will not just sit there, you’ll do something.

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