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Oil ignores the Saudi-Russia war drums so far today

  
  Analysis
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Oil sneaks back above $34, bounce of over 9% for today

WTI H1 10-03

Oil moved a little lower on the headline that Saudi Arabia would step up production to 12.3 mil bpd next month but buyers leaned on the near-term trendline support to keep a move towards the $34 level seen currently.
Since the headline, there have been a couple of Russia and Saudi Arabia remarks as well but so far oil is not faltering just yet. So far, the market mood has been relatively positive with US futures also seeing gains of over 4% today.
But with coronavirus fears still persistent and Saudi Arabia and Russia heading for a prolonged duel, it is going to be hard to see how oil can sustain any meaningful gains.
For today, look out for the overnight high @ $34.88 as that may provide a technical reprieve on a move higher in oil prices. But in the big picture, there’s only so long that oil can ignore the war drums before falling lower once again.

Consecutive Loses

  
  Education
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loser-1

You go long and the market immediately goes down – you go short and the market immediately goes up.  That’s 2 consecutive losses AND you are getting a little ‘anxious’ so you don’t take the ‘next’ trade and it of course works.  BUT to make the situation worse you then ‘chase’ the entry and it immediately reverses – another loss AND this is 3 in a row.  Ok 1 more try – this can’t happen on every trade can it – pray mode?   
This time though you will be real clever.  You have at least noticed that the market is in a range AND it’s the bounce from the low/retrace from the high that is causing all the problems.  So this time the next trade you take will be a range extreme fade AND the hell with your trading method.  The market is at the range low AND per your new ‘on the fly’ plan you go long AND the range immediately breaks out giving you consecutive loser #4 – trading against a method trade that is going far enough to pay for the previous 3 losers and make you net ahead.   
Now what are you supposed to do – QUIT?  AND to be sure that there is no more temptation – your throw your computer out the window and dive out right behind it.  You are in a trading psychology spiral.

4 Trading Quotes for Today's Trading Session

  
  Education
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“You must practice being a successful trader first. From that state of mind you will get information about what to do, and that will produce what you want to have.”

“Excellence is about stepping outside the comfort zone, training with a spirit of endeavor, and accepting the inevitability of trials and tribulations. Progress is built, in effect, upon the foundations of necessary failure.” 

 “Amateurs keep thinking what trades to get into, while professionals spend just as much time figuring out their exits.”

“Confidence doesn’t come from being right all the time: it comes from surviving the many occasions of being wrong.” Brent Steenbarger, The Daily Trading Coach “When you attain some degree of control over yourself, you can then see how other traders are not in control of what happens to them.”

The Psychology of Trading

  
  Education
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There is an old saying that the market is driven by fear and greed. Anyone that has placed more than a couple of trades will surely have experienced these two emotions. All traders experience emotion. The distinction between a successful trader and an unsuccessful trader comes down to how they deal with that emotion. Let’s look at how these emotions affect a successful trader and an unsuccessful trader in various scenarios.

You go long and the market immediately goes down – you go short and the market immediately goes up. That’s 2 consecutive losses, and you are getting a little ‘anxious’ so you don’t take the ‘next’ trade. Of course, this trade is a winner. Now to make the situation worse, you then ‘chase’ the move, and as soon as you enter the trade it immediately reverses, thus giving you another loss – this is now 3 in a row. Ok, one more ‘try’ – this can’t happen on every trade can it? (more…)

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