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The Fallacy Of Higher Effort = Higher Returns

  
Analysis, Education
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mailEvery week I will try to dedicate some time to answering questions that readers and  members send in to me.
First off, thank you again for letting me know what is on your mind and for pointing out topics I need to discuss further. While I’m not able to answer all of the questions submitted, I have read each one submitted to me and will be looking for opportunities to share information that will be helpful to you in the coming weeks.
Today just covering one question sent by one Trader.
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Q:  The harder I try, the more money I lose. What’s going on?

 

A:  This is a fairly common phenomenon which is why we have to learn how to adapt to market conditions and be patient with our strategies. Just because you “try harder” doesn’t mean that your profits will expand equally in relation to your effort. While effort helps create and sustain an edge, at the end of the day you still need the market to cooperate with whatever you are doing.

The best analogy I can provide here is one that many golfers are familiar with. If you’ve ever golfed in high winds, you know that your score will often be higher. Some of this, obviously is due directly to the windy conditions (which you have no control over). (more…)

Meet the market with an empty mind

  
  Education
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empty_mindYou know you are a daytrader when you go to the movies with loved ones and a line in the movie becomes you next daytrading blog post.

The movie was 2012. A movie about the end of the world and the preservation of the human race. the entire movie is filled with moments of natural disasters, crashing buildings, people meeting their end, and people who are trying to survive and perserve the human race.

Amongst the mass destruction where the south pole becomes located someplace in Wisconsin, it is not surprising that religion comes into play. Once scene includes a wise old monk speaking with a young monk who obviously has not attained the wisdom of the old man. As they are speaking the wise old man pours a cup of brown tea until it is overflowing. The young monk tells him to stop as the cup is overflowing. The old man stops pouring and explains,

 ”like this cup a man’s mind is overflowing with opinions and speculation.

You must empty  the cup in order to fill it with wisdom” (more…)

PATIENCE & DISCIPLINE

  
  Education
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  god-grant-me1 A trader has to have patience & discipline to succeed.
The bottom line is – you need to work out a plan, and then stick to it…regardless.
If you decide on trading only a particular strategy, then you must wait for that setup to occur. In the meanwhile, if price makes some moves, you should not trade those, simply because they do not fit within your plan. 
Psychologically, you need a lot of discipline to stick to a plan, because you always feel you are missing out on the moves.
And if you are trading full time, then this becomes a very big issue. Since you keep waiting for a trade & if the opportunity does not occur, then you get tempted to twist your plan & get into the action…..which is the surest way to disaster.
One can make a living from trading…provided it’s done in the correct way.
It’s not an overnight-get-rich-scheme.
It has to be built up slowly & takes a lot of effort & dedication.
Once you accept this fact, it becomes somewhat easier

Traps and Pitfalls

  
  Education
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Realistically, there are many ways to lose money in the financial markets and, if you play this game long enough, you’ll get to know the most of them intimately. Fortunately, a survivalist plan empowers you to avoid many of the traps and pitfalls faced by other traders. Above all else, learn the five market scenarios that place you at the most risk.

  1. Bad Markets – A good pattern won’t bail you out of a bad market, so move to the sidelines when conflict and indecision take hold of the tape. Your long-term survival depends on effective trade management. The bottom line: don’t trade when you can’t measure your risk, and stand aside when you can’t find your edge.
  2. Bad Timing – It’s easy to be right but still lose money. Financial instruments are forced to negotiate a minefield of conflicting trends, each dependent on different time frames. Your positions need to align with the majority of these cycles in order to capture the profits visualized in your trade analysis.
  3. Bad Trades – There are a lot of stinkers out there, vying for your attention, so look for perfect convergence before risking capital on a questionable play, and then get out at the first sign of danger. It’s easy to go brain dead and step into a weak-handed position that makes absolutely no sense, whether it moves in your favor or not. The bottom line: it’s never too late to get out of a stupid trade.
  4. Bad Stops – Poor stops will shake you out of good positions. Stops do their best work when placed outside the market noise, while keeping risk to a minimum. Many traders believe professionals hit their stops because they have inside knowledge, but the truth is less mysterious. Most of us stick them in the same old places.
  5. Bad Action – Modern markets try to burn everyone before they launch definable trends. These shakeouts occur because most traders play popular strategies that have been deconstructed by market professionals. In a sense, the buy and sell signals found in TA books are turned against the naïve folks using them.

Don't Lose the Lesson!

  
  Education
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lessonLosing trades can have the same affect – if you let them. However, if you look at each trade as just one of your next 100 or even one of the next 1000 trades you’ll make in the next year, you’ll begin to attach far less emotion to the outcome of each trade. Detaching emotion from individual trades is one of the best ways to build confidence in yourself and your long-term success as a trader.

Losses are inevitable; they simply are a part of trading. How you handle losses is what can ultimately determine your level of success moving forward. Even a losing trade can be beneficial if you take what you can from it. Ask yourself, “Why did this trade fail? Is it a function of a market reversal, or a miscalculation on my part? Was my stop-loss set too close as a result of too large a position? Did I micromanage this trade and adjust my numbers on the fly? Did I completely abandon my trading plan?” A loss means you’ve already paid the tuition, so you might as well stick around for the lesson.

Ask the right questions when a trade doesn’t work out or when you hit a rough patch with your trading. The answers you find can help you greatly as you progress as a trader. Whether those answers allow you to avoid making the same mistake again or if they just give you some closure following a bad experience, take what positives you can find and move forward.

Bottom line: cut the loss but keep the lesson!

Trade what you Observe – Not what you Believe

  
  Education
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One of the hardest lessons to learn in your quest to become a true trader is to susobservationpend your beliefs and to trade that which you have learned through hours of observation.

How many times have you stated that company x is overvalued only to watch it go higher? Or undervalued only to watch it continue lower? How many times have you thought that the “market” can’t go any higher and yet it did day after day? Or lower? How many times have you been scratching your head because the “market” is rising on such low volume? When is the last time you were in disbelief because company y has closed higher for 10 days in a row (after shorting it on the third day)? And have you ever acted on a recommendation from Jim Cramer only to watch in disbelief because as soon as you entered it reversed course?

Bottom line – trading what “you” believe is a recipe for disaster.

Eventually most folks figure out that the market is so chaotic that they are lost and admit they don’t know how to trade. Many quit in disgust. A few of you press on and begin a journey of real study. (more…)

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