Archives of “Bond vigilante” tag

rss

European bond yields continue to rise over the past week

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

10-year German bond yields rise to its highest levels in a month

GDBR10Y

Meanwhile, 10-year French and Spanish bond yields have both climbed to their highest levels since May 2019 to start the day. This comes as we also see Treasury yields rebound higher, with 10-year yields up by 10 bps to 0.82% currently.
It is tough to try and make sense with what is happening in the market because things change so quickly but I would argue that the selloff in European bonds isn’t exactly a good sign for the euro currency in general.
I would say the rise in Treasury yields represents a bit of a disconnect because the move higher there reflects more closely the slightly better risk mood today – which is also helping USD/JPY to stay underpinned, alongside gains in the dollar today that is.

The front end is pining for Fed cuts

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

The bottom continues to fall out

The bottom continues to fall out
US 2-year yields are now trading more than 40 basis points below Fed funds. The odds of a March 18 cut in the OIS market have risen to 35% from 6% last Thursday.
Many market participants are deciding that they would rather get 1.14% for the next two years than hold stocks. If you believe this is going to be a pandemic, that’s entirely reasonable because the Fed will cut to zero and the dollar is always does well in times of trouble.
It’s incredible how the thinking in markets can go from ‘return on capital’ to ‘return of capital’ in a few days.

Treasury yields turn flat across the curve, risk currencies pare gains

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

10-year Treasury yields are now flat on the session

USGG10YR

The early trading in the bond market is hinting at some indecision about the risk mood. Treasury yields turned flatter about two hours ago before recovering some poise and is now back to flat levels again on the session.
As a result, USD/JPY has pared gains to 109.81 currently and we are seeing a similar story for the aussie as AUD/USD falls to a session low of 0.6743 after having traded around 0.67455-65 earlier in the day – just take note AUD/JPY is at key resistance levels as well.
European equities have pared back some of its earlier gains too but are still keeping higher in trading so far. This may yet lead to some mixed tones between stocks and bonds again but just be mindful of the market saying that “the bond market is always right”.

Italian bonds surge higher on Salvini defeat

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #

Italy 10-year bond yields down by over 15 bps to start the day

Italy 10-year yields

  • Italy’s Democrats defeat Salvini’s league in key regional vote
Chances of a snap election is less likely now and that is giving more confidence to Italian assets to kick start the week. Just be reminded that Salvini is the number euroskeptic figure in the country and the result above will bolster Conte’s government a bit more.
The more positive take on the move in Italian bonds today is better reflected in the BTP/Bund spread, where we’re see a significant narrowing in the spread today (141 bps now):
Italy Germany spread
Go to top