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Former Fed chairs Yellen and Bernanke give Congress views on Covid 19 in response to the economic crisis

Former Fed chair’s testify on Covid 19 in response economic crisis

Former Fed chair’s Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke are testifying to Covid 19 and response to economic crisis. There comments are appearing on the Brookings institute blog
  • in many respects this recession is unique
  • forecasting recovery is difficult
  • controlling the spread of the virus must be 1st priority for restoring more normal levels of economic activity
  • members of Congress, local leaders and other policymakers need to do all they can to support testing and contact tracing, medical research and sufficient hospital capacity.
  • They must work to ensure that businesses, schools and public transportation have what they need to operate safely
  • pace of recovery could be slow, uneven
  • the longer the recession last the greater the damage will reflect on household and business balance sheets
  • the depth of the recession may leave scars
  • depending on the course of the virus, some restructuring of the economy may be needed
  • Fed likely to give a for guidance on the lift off
  • the yield curve control possible, not certain
  • the financial system is in much better shape today than it was during the financial crisis
  • new same as measured by Congress are necessary including a comprehensive plan to support medical research, testing, contact tracing and hospital capacity, enhanced unemployment insurance should be extended, and Congress should provide substantial support to state and local governments
The full report can be found HERE

The Path to Greatness

There is much wisdom in the following and I wish these were my words, but sadly they are not. This particular speech doesn’t even pertain to trading, but reminds me so much of what Mark Douglas teaches. However, I always seem to find ways to relate just about everything in my life to trading, as I’m sure most who read this blog. Therefore I thought you would find as much value here as do I.

You are where you are…you have a goal
As you move towards that goal, things will happen
Some of those things will eventually, trigger in you an emotion that is counterproductive to your goal
It will cause you to act in a way, that will take you away from where you were heading, and towards something more familiar in your life that has plagued you your whole life
We all have these areas of vulnerability

Those who master this vulnerability are the people who master their craft. The people who master that moment in time, where that reaction occurs, are the people who do extraordinary things with their life. Who overcome things that others can’t even imagine confronting. It’s because at that moment, they manage themselves through that triggered state in an effective way, rather than defaulting to their old system they developed at a very young age, that does nothing but protect them, but not advance them. If you can master those moments, your life will be catapulted into extraordinary experiences beyond anything you can imagine. 

How to know when to exit your position?

This started as a quirky post but quickly turned into something probably more useful. I admit the post is based on personal experiences. Luckily, I do not make these mistakes any more….at least not very often ;). Enjoy!

1) It is time to sell when…..you find yourself using extra technical indicators on charts to justify holding your position that you didnt use to get into it in the first place!

2) It is time to sell when…..you find yourself going to yahoo message boards to see if someone has some positive news that you don’t know!

3) It is time to sell when…..you find yourself justifying to yourself holding a position for fundamental reasons when you entered it for technical reasons!

4) It is time to sell when…..when you ask an “expert” on twitter or some blog to chart a stock checking for entry when you are already in it!

Let me know if you readers have any other such fun “indicators” and I shall add them

5 Emotional Stages of a Loss

Stage 1: Denial
This is when you have the first sign of a loss. However, you justify this loss. You deny it’s true form and decide that it could be a winner…but you just have to “wait it out.” “Afterall, I bought a lot of time on my option.”
Stage 2: Anger
The loss judt got worse. Now you look to place blame. Freakin’ blog! I hate the marketcast anyway!!! Why didn’t I do my own analysis????

Stage 3: Bargaining
If somehow this stock can move in your favor, you promise you won’t do it again. Or even worse, you start to think of ways to salvage. Desperation sets in.
Stage 4: Depression
It couldn’t get worse huh? WRONG! Now this makes a huge mark on your account, your spouse is going to kill you, it is going to take forever to make it back, and you start to panic.
Stage 5: Acceptance
Alright, I will take the loss.

Why Trading Is A Performance Sport

MB-TEAM

Learn about various trading software
Learn how to interpret candlestick charts and patterns
Learn Fib extensions and retracements
Try-out various time frames
Learn trade executions
Learn how to manage trades
Learn about emotional control and psychology
Learn about risk control
Devise a precise trading method
Learn about money management
Backtest set-up for several months
Internalize set-ups by paper trading
Have to be adequately capitalized
Specialize in gap trading
Learn about creating a daily watch list
Learn how to prioritize a daily hit list
Set up blog for recording daily diary of ideas and thoughts
Devise a system to analyze trading results – daily and monthly
Develop a daily precise routine

 

Your Mails -My Answers

Q:  Can you discuss the concept of drawdowns a bit? Novice traders seem to think experienced traders become proficient to the point that they are right much more than not and thus experience very small drawdowns. But talking to experienced traders this does not seem to be the case.

A:  In my view, the biggest difference between a successful trader and one who is not is how they manage their mistakes. Note, I am of the opinion that those who trade well don’t make fewer mistakes but they simply have learned how to handle them when they occur. This opinion is based on years of experience but also more recently working closely one-on-one with other traders. The fastest way I’ve learned to be of help to others is to show them how to recognize, quickly admit, and then take aggressive action when a mistake has been made. Losers tend to make bigger mistakes out of small ones. They let their egos get in the way and double-down in losing trades and make matters worse when a mistake is made.

Ultimately, the best you can do in this business is try to be “more right than wrong,” especially at key turning points and be quick to repair and take remedial action when you are wrong as well as managing your risk through proper trading size, stop losses, and simple diversification.

Q:  I know that Alexander Elder recommends trading less often for better results. And after reading your blog for the last couple of years I know that you follow this strategy for the most part as well. What do you do in a range bound time such as what we are experiencing, have you been doing more day trading?

A:  I’ve been very inactive recently. In fact, when you see more posts at the website (especially those link posts that take so much time and energy to do), you pretty much can count on that I’m doing a lot of sideline sitting. In many ways, this blog helps me stay patient as it keeps me busy and focused without feeling the necessity to make trades that don’t offer exactly what I’m looking for. All good traders seem to have different ways to cope when the environment is not receptive and I recommend you find ways to cope as well. As for day trading, that is fine if you love doing that, but that’s never been my desire. Day trading for pennies a trade seems too much like work and I don’t need that kind of stress. I can afford to be patient and pick my spots.

To send in your question(s) for next mailbag, please send me e-mail at [email protected] Although I may not directly answer your question in these  posts, it is extremely helpful to know what topics are of interest to you so that I can find links and look for opportunities to discuss and cover your interests in the future. Thank you!

The 5 Emotional Stages of a loss

Stage 1: Denial
This is when you have the first sign of a loss. However, you justify this loss. You deny it’s true form and decide that it could be a winner…but you just have to “wait it out.” “Afterall, I bought a lot of time on my option.”

Stage 2: Anger
The loss judt got worse. Now you look to place blame. Freakin’ blog! I hate the marketcast anyway!!! Why didn’t I do my own analysis????


Stage 3: Bargaining
If somehow this stock can move in your favor, you promise you won’t do it again. Or even worse, you start to think of ways to salvage. Desperation sets in.

Stage 4: Depression
It couldn’t get worse huh? WRONG! Now this makes a huge mark on your account, your spouse is going to kill you, it is going to take forever to make it back, and you start to panic.

Stage 5: Acceptance
Alright, I will take the loss.

Learning from Mistakes…

A Reader of our Blog had sent me the following question …

“When should a trader know when to say it is enough and I need to get out of the position. More importantly, how do you find a balance between learning from a mistake and not being weighed down by it on your next trading decision.”

Here was my advice:

* if you have “edge” in a trade, then winning or losing on a trade will be determined long before you find out the outcome (profit/loss) on the trade.

* important to focus on the process of the trade… making ONLY high quality trades

* your job as a trader is not to determine or decide how much you make or lose…that is up to the market. Your job is to put on trades with “edge.”

as far as not being weighed down by the mistakes, my suggestion is to begin a “lessons learned” spreadsheet where you document mistakes you make and the lesson you learned from it.

I also suggest you start a qualitative trading journal that way you can get the emotions out of your head and onto the paper.

this will help you move past your barriers and get some closure on them so you can be focused on the next trade.

What banks will be burned by Greece ?

GreeceflagAt end-Q3 foreigners held EUR216bn of Greek government debt (72.3% of the total market, 90.2% of GDP), having doubled their position since end-04. Given recent downgrades and another round of revisions to budget data from previous years, a sharp slowdown or even reversal of inflows from foreigners into the local debt market has become an increasing risk.”

Read the full story on FT Alphaville’s blog, by Tracy Alloway

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