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The only way to be successful in the markets

Successful businesswomanSome might have longer holding periods they like to stick to. Some might prefer switching positions on a much more frequent basis. It all comes down to the same. Getting exposure to opportunities. Here’s a quote from Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book ‘The Black Swan’ describing that phenomenon. Quote from page 170:

“… seemed to follow implicitly, though not explicitly, Louis Pasteur’s adage about creating luck by sheer exposure. ‘Luck favors the prepared,’ Pasteur said, and, like all great discoverers, he knew something about accidental discoveries. The best way to get maximal exposure is to keep researching. Collect opportunities…”

So whenever a trade doesn’t work keep in mind the outcome of one single trade doesn’t really matter. What it all comes down to is to repeat the process over and over again. In the long run doing research on a regular basis and getting exposure to opportunities is the only way to be successful in the markets.

Links worth reading

  • The secrets of the Afghan war released (WSJ)
  • BP set to announce Hayward departure (FT)
  • Must read: The death of paper money (Telegraph)
  • European Banking’s Next Focus Is Funding (WSJ)
  • U.K. Growth Forecast Cut on Budget Curbs, Ernst & Young to Say (BusinessWeek)
  • Taleb: Government Deficits Could Be the Next ‘Black Swan’ (BusinessWeek)
  • Deficits Don’t Matter as Geithner Growth Gets Lowest Yield (Bloomberg)
  • When will the US go the way of Rome (RCM)
  • Nassim Taleb: Soros versus Buffett

    If given a choice between investing with Buffett and billionaire investor George Soros, Taleb also said he would probably pick the latter.

     “I am not saying Buffett isn’t as good as Soros,” he said. “I am saying that the probability Soros’s returns come from randomness is much smaller because he did almost everything: he bought currencies, he sold currencies, he did arbitrages. He made a lot more decisions. Buffett followed a strategy to buy companies that had a certain earnings profile, and it worked for him. There is a lot more luck involved in this strategy.”

     [From: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-09-25/obama-s-stimulus-plan-made-crisis-worse-taleb-says.html]

     I have high respect for your intelligence and thinking, and I believe that “Fooled by Randomness” and “The Black Swan” are must-read books for everyone. However, I believe your observation on Warren Buffett is wrong.

     You justified your pick on Soros because you have observed his thousands if not millions of trades; therefore, giving you comfort that he is making decisions and his success, to quote what you said, is “2 million times more statistically evidence that his results are not by chance than Buffett does”.

     You are implying that Soros is making thousands more decisions that Buffett. It seems to me that your understanding of Buffett is superficial, leading to your flawed conclusion.

     During a meeting with MBA students from the University of Georgia in early 2007, Buffett told the group of students that “There were four Moody’s manuals at the time. I went through them all, page by page, over 10,000 pages twice. On page 1433, I found Western Insurance Securities. Its earnings per share were as follows: 1949 – $21.66, 1950 – $29.09. In 1951, the low-high share price was $3 – $13. Ten pages later, on page 1443, I found National American Fire Insurance….”

     Again, in 2004, Buffett searched through the entire Korean stock market by reading Citigroup Investment Guide to Korean Stocks (that is over 1,700 companies). In 4 hours he found 20 companies that he liked and put $100 million to work.

     These two examples illustrated that Buffett did make thousands of decisions of not to invest. Those who study Buffett intensely know that he works extreme hard and study all companies available from A to Z, leaving no stone unturned. Deciding not to buy is just as important as deciding to buy. However, inactivity is commonly misunderstood for not making any decision.

     To quote Albert Einstein, “Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted, counts.”

    Taleb Says ‘Every Human’ Should Short U.S. Treasuries

    TalebFeb. 4 (Bloomberg) — Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” said “every single human being” should bet U.S. Treasury bonds will decline, citing the policies of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and the Obama administration.

    It’s “a no brainer” to sell short Treasuries, Taleb, a principal at Universa Investments LP in Santa Monica, California, said at a conference in Moscow today. “Every single human being should have that trade.”

    Taleb said investors should bet on a rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, as long as Bernanke and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers are in office, without being more specific. Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the credit crisis, also said at the conference that the U.S. dollar will weaken against Asian and “commodity” currencies such as the Brazilian real over the next two or three years.

    Click to Read more

    The 150 Things the World's Smartest People Are Afraid Of

    Every year, the online magazine Edge–the so-called smartest website in the world–asks the top scientists, technologists, writers, and academics to weigh in on a single question. This year, that question was “What Should We Be Worried About?” and the idea was to identify new problems arising in science, tech, and culture that haven’t yet been widely recognized. 

    This year’s respondents include former presidents of the Royal Society, Nobel prize-winners, famous sci-fi authors, Nassem Nicholas Taleb, Brian Eno, and a bunch of top theoretical phsycists, psychologists and biologists. And the list is long. Like, book-length long. Tthere are some 130 different things that worry 151 of the planet’s biggest brains. And I read it, so you don’t have to: here’s the Buzzfeedized version, with the money quote, title, or summary of the fear pulled out of each essay. Obviously, go read the rest if any of the below get you fretting. 

    What keeps the smartest folks in the world awake at night? Here goes:

    1. The proliferation of Chinese eugenics. – Geoffrey Miller, evolutionary psychologist.

    2. Black swan events, and the fact that we continue to rely on models that have been proven fraudulent. – Nassem Nicholas Taleb

    3. That we will be unable to defeat viruses by learning to push them beyond the error catastrophe threshold. – William McEwan, molecular biology researcher

    4. That pseudoscience will gain ground. – Helena Cronin, author, philospher

    5. That the age of accelerating technology will overwhelm us with opportunities to be worried. – Dan Sperber, social and cognitive scientist (more…)

    NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB AND THE BED OF PROCRUSTES- Quotes

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the former trader and well known author of The Black Swan and Fooled By Randomness, has put together a new book of aphorisms, entitled The Bed of Procrustes.  The Procrustes of Greek mythology was a cruel fellow who stretched or shortened people to make them fit his inflexible bed. Mr. Taleb’s new book addresses the modern day ways in which “we humans, facing limits of knowledge, and things we do not observe, the unseen and the unknown, resolve the tension by squeezing life and the world into crisp commoditized ideas, reductive categories, specific vocabularies, and prepackaged narratives, which, on the occasion, has explosive consequences.”  In other words, we live under self-imposed delusions.  Here are a few of the aphorisms that expose our delusionary thinking, many of which can be applied to trading.  But, in order to understand their application, we must first step out of our delusional state.

    The stock market, in brief: participants are calmly waiting in line to be slaughtered while thinking it is for a Broadway show.
    You are rich if and only if money you refuse tastes better than money you accept.
    The best test of whether someone is extremely stupid (or extremely wise) is whether financial and political news makes sense to him.
    You can be certain that the head of a corporation has a lot to worry about when he announces publicly that “there is nothing to worry about.”
    The main difference between government bailouts and smoking is that in some rare cases the statement “this is my last cigarette” holds true. (more…)

    THE BED OF PROCRUSTES

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the former trader and well known author of The Black Swan and Fooled By Randomness, has put together a new book of aphorisms, entitled The Bed of Procrustes.  The Procrustes of Greek mythology was a cruel fellow who stretched or shortened people to make them fit his inflexible bed. Mr. Taleb’s new book addresses the modern day ways in which “we humans, facing limits of knowledge, and things we do not observe, the unseen and the unknown, resolve the tension by squeezing life and the world into crisp commoditized ideas, reductive categories, specific vocabularies, and prepackaged narratives, which, on the occasion, has explosive consequences.”  In other words, we live under self-imposed delusions.  Here are a few of the aphorisms that expose our delusionary thinking, many of which can be applied to trading.  But, in order to understand their application, we must first step out of our delusional state.

    The stock market, in brief: participants are calmly waiting in line to be slaughtered while thinking it is for a Broadway show.

    You are rich if and only if money you refuse tastes better than money you accept.

    The best test of whether someone is extremely stupid (or extremely wise) is whether financial and political news makes sense to him.

    You can be certain that the head of a corporation has a lot to worry about when he announces publicly that “there is nothing to worry about.”

    The main difference between government bailouts and smoking is that in some rare cases the statement “this is my last cigarette” holds true.

    The difference between banks and the Mafia: banks have better legal-regulatory expertise, but the Mafia understands public opinion.

    They would take forecasting more seriously if it were pointed out to them that in Semitic languages the words for forecast and “prophecy” are the same.

    The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary.

    I wonder is anyone ever measured the time it takes, at a party, before a mildly successful stranger who went to Harvard makes others aware of it.

    It takes a lot of intellect and confidence to accept that what makes sense doesn’t really make sense.

    Education makes the wise slightly wiser, but makes the fool vastly more dangerous.

    The best revenge on a liar is to convince him that you believe what he said.

    How often have you arrived one, three, or six hours late on a transatlantic flight as opposed to one, three, or six hours early?  This explains why deficits tend to be larger, rarely smaller, than planned.

    The most painful moments are not those we spend with uninteresting people; rather, they are those spent with uninteresting people trying hard to be interesting.

    The characteristic feature of the loser is to bemoan, in general terms, mankind’s flaws, biases, contradictions, and irrationality-without exploiting them for fun and profit.

    You don’t become completely free by just avoiding to be a slave; you also need to avoid becoming a master.

    The fastest way to become rich is to socialize with the poor; the fastest way to become poor is to socialize with the rich.

    Some, like most bankers, are so unfit for success that they look like dwarves in giants’ clothes.

    Over the long term, you are more likely to fool yourself than others.

    It is those who use others who are the most upset when someone uses them.

    A genius is someone with flaws harder to imitate than his qualities.

    It is much less dangerous to think like a man of action than to act like a man of thought.

    What I learned on my own I still remember.

    Regular minds find similarities in stories (and situations); finer minds detect differences.

    The tragedy is that much of what you think is random is in your control and, what’s worse, the opposite.

    You can only convince people who think they can benefit from being convinced.

    Trust people who make a living lying down or standing up more than those who do so sitting down.

    Even the cheapest misers can be generous with advice.

    The difference between magnificence and arrogance is in what one does when nobody is looking.

    When conflicted between two choices, take neither.

    A prophet is not someone with special visions, just someone blind to most of what others see.

    You know you have influence when people start noticing your absence more than the presence of others.

    There is much more where the above came from but you will have to get up out of bed, head to the bookstore, and find out for yourself.  May be worth the trip.

    Black Swans

    Black swan is regarded as a rare, unexpected event that could bring disastrous consequences for those that don’t have a contingency plan. Can you be prepared for something that by definition is unexpected? It depends on how do you look at the world. There is a difference between the impossible and the highly improbable. The latter is possible.  The  black swan is not the same for everyone. What looks like unexpected to one, could be totally predictable for another. For the turkey Thanksgiving day is a black swan, but this is not so for the butcher.

    There is a natural tendency for human beings to underestimate the odds of seemingly unlikely events. Few realize that once in a 100 years event is equally likely to happen tomorrow as it is to happen after 95 years. And if there are insufficient data to calculate the probability of a very bad outcome, as is often the case, that doesn’t mean we should assume the probability is zero and look at contingency plans as a waste of time and efforts.

    There is an Irish proverb, which I have always thought that relates very well to capital markets – The obvious rarely happens, the unexpected constantly occurs. The “unthinkable”, the “unimaginable” takes place much more often than most people are willing to accept. The stock market crash of 1987 was described at the time as a 27-standard-deviation event. That implies that the odds of such an event not happening were 99.99% with 159 more 9s after it. It was unheard of kind of event, but it happened. Those who weren’t prepared, those who were over-leveraged, didn’t survive.

    When it comes to objectively assessing the real risk of any investment, there is one important question to ask: What is the worst thing that could happen and how it may impact your solvency. Human beings are naturally biased and tend to look for information that only confirms an already established thesis. Not much thinking is devoted to figuring out what could go wrong and to preparation of a contingency plan of action. People are often not prepared and when something unpleasantly surprising happens they don’t know how to react. They panick and let their emotions to rule decision making, which invariably leads to losses.

    A good way to minimize the impact of emotions is to go long gamma. What are some of the characteristics of getting long premium:

    – more precise risk control

    When long or short equity, you don’t have full control of your potential losses. Stops are not very helpful when your position gaps against you or during sudden evaporation of liquidity. If you are long gamma, you know the exact amount of the potential maximum loss – the whole premium. Armed with that knowledge, position sizing becomes easy.

    – more precise time management

    You know exactly how much time you have  in order to be right. If your thesis happens to remain wrong until options expiration, your position is automatically wiped and you start clean all over again. Many investors realize in hindsight that they were right on their analysis, but wrong in their timing as the market was not ready to accept their  thesis. Being long premium takes away the whole aspect of having to worry about precise risk management. It is like paying for someone else to be your risk manager. You have an investment thesis and you want to go long GLD for the next 12 months. Going long gamma is the perfect way to do it. You pay a small amount to see if your thesis is right. Even if the option goes down a lot in the beginning to the point that it is worthless, you will still own it and you never know what might happen. Adverse market moves and emotions won’t shake you out of your position, because you already have a plan for the worst possible outcome – you will lose the paid premium.

    – overpaying for premium, but still able to make money

    You have to realize that in most of the time you will overpay for options. If you did proper due diligence that should not bother you as the move in the underlying asset will more than compensate the wasting effect of time and volatility. Especially when you move past one month options. There is a tendency to believe that people overpay for options because the research shows that IV is higher than realized volatility. That has to be the case for the seller to be willing to take the risk and to write you an option – he’s got to make some money. The difference is, he’s going to delta hedge and you’re not, so you are going to have to pay a little bit extra so that he gets compensated. You have to realize in advance, that yes you are overpaying. The seller is making his money of the delta hedge, and you are paying him a little bit by paying him more than what realized volatility is, but no one really knows in advance how big the realized volatility and the move of the underlying asset are going to be. Both the seller of the option and the buyer could make money. The profit for the seller comes from extracting the risk premia in the daily volatility and for the buyer it comes from the fact that most underlying assets tend to exhibit trending behavior. (more…)

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