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Magical thinking

  
  Education
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Magical thinking describes subjective speculation about how markets will act. It is difficult to know for sure how significant a role intuition about the likelihood that investments will do well or poorly plays in peoples? decisions to invest. We are trying to assess innermost thoughts about money and self worth which most people feel they do not have to explain or justify to anyone. However, we can label these patterns of thought as magical thinking. Most investors have occasional feelings or intuitions that certain trading actions will bring them luck even if they know logically the actions can have no effect on their fortunes. Playing a hunch just because it feels right seldom makes traders rich. Yet proof that it’s human nature to indulge in magical thinking abounds:

  1. It has been shown that people will place larger bets on a coin that has not yet been tossed than on a coin that has already been tossed, but the outcome of the toss has yet to be revealed.
  2. If asked how much money they would demand to part with a lottery ticket they already hold, most ticket holders give a figure over four times greater than if they themselves chose the lottery number on the ticket. Apparently, at some magical level people think that they can influence a coin that has not yet been tossed and influence the likelihood of winning the lottery by choosing the number.
  3. People are capable of thinking, at least on some intuitive level, If I buy a stock, then it will go up afterwards or If I buy a stock, then others will probably want to buy the stock, too, because they are like me or I have a hot hand lately; my luck is with me. Such magical thinking is likely, in a subtle way, to contribute to the overconfidence that may help the propagation of speculative bubbles.

Think Like Las Vegas

  
  Education
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Do you think of each trade as an island, as the great hope, or do you think in terms of probabilities over a series of trades? Casinos make their money by keeping the odds in their favor over a large number of bets. And that’s how successful traders think too. They don’t get attached to the success or failure of any given trade. Their primary goal is to stay calm, relaxed and open to the market’s opportunities so that they can execute their edge precisely and keep the odds in their favor. Thats why I make such a big deal about emotional clearing and staying calm. The emotional clearing technique I use is literally worth tens of thousands of dollars to me in bottom line results.

Traders Should Accept these 4 Things

  
  Education
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  1. Accept that the key to being a successful trader is having big wins and small losses, not big bets paying off. Big bets can lead quickly to you being out of the game after a string of losses.
  2. Accept that the best traders are also the best risk managers, even the best traders do not have crystal balls so they ALWAYS manage their capital at risk on EVERY trade.
  3. If you want to be a better trader then you need to accept that trading smaller and risking less is a key to your success. Risking 1% to 2% of your capital on any single trade is the first step to winning at trading. Use stops and position sizing to limit your losses and get out when your losses grow to these levels.
  4. You must accept that you will have 10 trading losses in a row a few times each year. The question is what your account will look like when they happen.

BETS

  
  Education
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There are just four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose. Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future. You can also lose a good bet, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.”

“Life is nothing more than a series of bets and bets are really nothing more than questions and their answers. There is no real difference between, ’should I take another hit on this Blackjack hand?’ and ‘Should I get out of the way of that speeding and wildly careening bus?’ Each shares two universal truths: a set of probabilities of potential outcomes and the singular outcome that takes place. Everyday we place hundreds if not thousands of bets – large and small, some seemingly well considered and others made without a second thought. The vast majority of the latter, life’s little gambles made without any thought, might certainly be trivial. ‘Should I tie my shoes?’ Seems to offer no big risk, nor any big reward. While others, such as the aforementioned ’speeding and wildly careening bus’ would seem to have greater impact on our lives. However, if deciding not to tie your shoes that morning causes you to trip and fall down in the middle of the road when you finally decide to fold your hand and give that careening bus plenty of leeway, well then, in hindsight the trivial has suddenly become paramount.”

The Four Elements Of Successful Trading. Do You have all Four?

  
  Education
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The Knowledge

If we don’t do the homework to know what we need to know we will fail due to ignorance. Understanding historical price action, reading books by and about the best traders, seminars, mentor-ships, and  systems testing is all part of the homework we must do to get the needed knowledge.

The Resources

While trading with a small account is a good place to start it is not a good place to stay. Traders must be adequately capitalized for meaningful trading. We must have an affordable broker that does not charge bloated commissions and gives great execution on orders. A trader must have a platform and charting service that is adequate for his trading style. Trading a small account with an expensive broker with poor execution is a path to eventual failure. (more…)

Poker and Trading…Some Rules Applicable to Both.

  
  Education
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Pay Attention…and It Will Pay You. Concentrate on everything when you are playing/trading. Watch and listen; remember to do both and relate the two.

Understand When to Play Aggressively…It’s the Winning Way. Don’t be a tight or a loose player/trader; be a solid one and recognize when it is time to press your bets/positions. To attain superior returns in poker and investing over the long run, grind it out (in stocks until you are up 30%-40%, and then if you have convictions, go for a 100% year). If you can avoid losing and put together a few 100% years, you can achieve outstanding long-term investment performance.

Tells: Look For Them and You Will Find Them. Poker players and stock markets have tells — giveaway moves that are very revealing. Learn to recognize them. History is your textbook.

ESP…It’s a Jellyroll. In those rare instances when all your card knowledge and market judgment/knowledge leaves you in doubt, go with your strong feelings and not against it.

Honor: A Gambler/Trader’s Ace-in-the-Hole. A good reputation and respect from others will put you in good stead.

Be as Competitive as You Can Be. Go into a poker game and into a trade with the idea of completely destroying your opponent or scoring a major investment coup. If you win a pot or make a successful trade, nearly always play the next pot or make the next trade shortly thereafter — within reason. Although the cards and trades might break even in the long run, rushes do happen and momentum often feeds upon itself. When you earn the right to be aggressive, you should be aggressive. When one has a tremendous conviction in a poker hand or trade, you have to go for the jugular.

Art and Science…It takes Both. Both activities are more art than science — that’s why they are so difficult to master. Knowing what to do is about 10% of the game. Knowing how to do it is the other 90%.

Money Management. The same sound principles of money control apply to the business of tournament/professional poker and to successful investing. The way to build long-term returns or poker winnings is through preservation of capital and home runs.

The Important Twins of Poker/Investing, Patience and Staying Power. Come to the poker table or to the markets with enough time to stay and play for a while.

Alertness is a Key. You must stay alert at all times.

So is Discipline.

Never Let Your Mind Dwell on Personal Problems. Never play/trade when you are upset. Make a conscious and constant effort to discover any leaks in your play, and then eliminate them.

Control Your Emotions. Allowing your confidence to be shaken can turn a simple losing streak into a terrible case of going bad. Keep your emotions in check. When you lose a pot or make a poor investment decision, get up, walk around the chair or take some deep breaths. Don’t lose your poise. If a trade or poker hand does not work out, walk away from the position/hand. Be confident enough about your ability to win afterwards.

Stock options are for..

  
  Education
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  1. …managing risk through controlling shares with less capital.
  2. …putting the odds in your favor.
  3. …making bets on volatility or a price inside a specific time frame.
  4. …insuring a longer term stock holding from major losses.
  5. …replacement of margin.

Stock options are not for…

  1. …gambling.
  2. …going all in on one trade.
  3. …being used if you do not understand them completely.
  4. …selling and taking on unmanageable risks.
  5. …trading with the odds against you.

4 Kinds of Bets in Trading

  
  Education
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There are just four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose.

Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future, when the odds will be running against you.

You can also lose a good bet no matter how sound the underlying proposition, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.

Uncertain Outcome, Consistent Result

  
  Education
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Every trader knows trading is a probability game. However, very few can internalize and live by the true meaning of what it means to be a probability game.

Mark Douglas, the author of “Trading in the Zone”, explains it well.     Someone who masters the probability game produces uncertain outcome but consistent result.   The best example to illustrate this concept is the casino business.     The casino holds on the average 4.5% probability advantage over the player. It does not know whether the next hand will be a winner or a loser against the player, but the casino is certain that they always win given enough bets.     Therefore casinos do not care if a player is going through a winning streak, as long as he is not cheating.

That’s exactly how traders need to think about his trades.    Market is random.    Anything can happen to the current trade.   A trader can increase his probability of winning either through fundamental or technical analysis but the best analysis can never produce a 100% certainty.  In reality, the highest win rate that the best analysis can produce is far from 100%.   However,  as long as the trader has a trading plan that can produce positive expected value,  he can expect consistent result over a reasonably large number of trades,  just like the casino. (more…)

8 Ways to be great

  
  Education
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First Principle: Find Your “Why?”

“The reason most people go through life with big dreams but fail to achieve them is because they ask themselves “how” before they know their “why”(9).

Second Principle: Get To Know Yourself

“The perfect trader-if such a person exists-is methodical and careful about making decisions, extremely disciplined, resilient to setbacks, with a high degree of internal confidence.  He holds strong opinions but is also able to admit quickly when he is wrong, not take it personally, and view it as a learning opportunity rather than a failure.  He understands the value of leaving his ego at the door.  He’s willing and able to trust his gut and place big bets when the opportunity presents itself.  In fact, that pretty well describes the ideal blend of characteristics of any successful person, no matter what he is doing professionally or personally” (18-19).

Third Principle:  Learn To Love The Process

“The best traders don’t think about how many millions they need to make each year.  They focus on making the best trading decision they can with each trade they make. And if there isn’t a good trading opportunity right now, they have the discipline to do nothing and just wait. Concentrating on one trade at a time is their process” (38).

Fourth Principle:  Sharpen Your Edge

“Gaining a competitive advantage is like having a two-edged sword, and you need to keep both of them sharp.  On edge is internal-knowing what unique skills you bring to the table.  The other is external and comes from gathering knowledge that makes it more likely you’ll succeed” (45). (more…)

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