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ULTIMATE REVENGE: one day after man's divorce, he wins lottery.

A BRITISH bus driver netted more than £2 million ($3.3 million) on the lottery a day after his divorce came through, The Sun reports.

Kevin Halstead, 50, went out for a drink with friends after his decree absolute arrived in the post last Friday.

He bought a lottery ticket the next day – and was gobsmacked when his lucky numbers came up later that evening, The Sun reports.

Kevin could have been forced to hand half the £2,302,668 to ex-wife Helen if the divorce had taken just a few days longer. (more…)

Success is the mother of confidence

How do you build confidence?  There are many ways but only one process: multiple small successes.  I am very much an advocate for boring trading.  What I mean by that is I trade the same edge over and over again without variation.  By trading the same edge over and over again I know when to get in and when to get out.  I know what to look for when a trade is working and I can safely add to my position.  On the other hand, I know what to look for when the trade is not working and I can exit with a small loss.  By following the rules EVERY TIME you can succeed, not in making money every time (impossible!), but by following the same plan every time.  These small successes give you the confidence to trust yourself each and every time your edge presents itself.  This is true in any new venture, whether it be golf, bowling, drawing, flying, etc.  Each small success gives birth to greater confidence which in turn brings further successes.  You can then replace a vicious circle of failure with a confident circle of success.  It is so EASY to want the lottery ticket or the home run every time at bat but HARD to accept when the numbers do not add up or when all the preparation leads to nothing more than the hard earned single.

Success is the mother of confidence

How do you build confidence?  There are many ways but only one process: multiple small successes.  I am very much an advocate for boring trading.  What I mean by that is I trade the same edge over and over again without variation.  By trading the same edge over and over again I know when to get in and when to get out.  I know what to look for when a trade is working and I can safely add to my position.  On the other hand, I know what to look for when the trade is not working and I can exit with a small loss.  By following the rules EVERY TIME you can succeed, not in making money every time (impossible!), but by following the same plan every time.  These small successes give you the confidence to trust yourself each and every time your edge presents itself.  This is true in any new venture, whether it be golf, bowling, drawing, flying, etc.  Each small success gives birth to greater confidence which in turn brings further successes.  You can then replace a vicious circle of failure with a confident circle of success.  It is so EASY to want the lottery ticket or the home run every time at bat but HARD to accept when the numbers do not add up or when all the preparation leads to nothing more than the hard earned single.

Accept The Risk

Is the money you risk on each trade real for you? Do you really accept the amount of money you are risking and are you willing to let it go? I find it helps me to think of risk as the amount of money I’m willing to spend to find out whether my edge is going to work on this trade. Note that I say spend. I actually think of each trade as though I’ve purchased a lottery ticket. I think that the amount of my stop has already been paid to find out if the edge works, so that as the trade proceeds I’m not afraid to lose anything. This is why the first point about knowing your expectancy is so important – if you trust your expectancy over a series of trades you don’t have to be afraid of the outcome of any single one.

Peter Lynch Quotes

“You can’t see the future through a rear view mirror.” – Peter Lynch

“The best stock to buy may be the one you already own.” – Peter Lynch

“You should not buy a stock because it’s cheap but because you know a lot about it.” – Peter Lynch

“An investment is simply a gamble in which you’ve managed to tilt the odds in your favor.” – Peter Lynch (more…)

Magical thinking

Magical thinking describes subjective speculation about how markets will act. It is difficult to know for sure how significant a role intuition about the likelihood that investments will do well or poorly plays in peoples? decisions to invest. We are trying to assess innermost thoughts about money and self worth which most people feel they do not have to explain or justify to anyone. However, we can label these patterns of thought as magical thinking. Most investors have occasional feelings or intuitions that certain trading actions will bring them luck even if they know logically the actions can have no effect on their fortunes. Playing a hunch just because it feels right seldom makes traders rich. Yet proof that it’s human nature to indulge in magical thinking abounds:

  1. It has been shown that people will place larger bets on a coin that has not yet been tossed than on a coin that has already been tossed, but the outcome of the toss has yet to be revealed.
  2. If asked how much money they would demand to part with a lottery ticket they already hold, most ticket holders give a figure over four times greater than if they themselves chose the lottery number on the ticket. Apparently, at some magical level people think that they can influence a coin that has not yet been tossed and influence the likelihood of winning the lottery by choosing the number.
  3. People are capable of thinking, at least on some intuitive level, If I buy a stock, then it will go up afterwards or If I buy a stock, then others will probably want to buy the stock, too, because they are like me or I have a hot hand lately; my luck is with me. Such magical thinking is likely, in a subtle way, to contribute to the overconfidence that may help the propagation of speculative bubbles.

Success is the mother of confidence

How do you build confidence?  There are many ways but only one process: multiple small successes.  I am very much an advocate for boring trading.  What I mean by that is I trade the same edge over and over again without variation.  By trading the same edge over and over again I know when to get in and when to get out.  I know what to look for when a trade is working and I can safely add to my position.  On the other hand, I know what to look for when the trade is not working and I can exit with a small loss.  By following the rules EVERY TIME you can succeed, not in making money every time (impossible!), but by following the same plan every time.  These small successes give you the confidence to trust yourself each and every time your edge presents itself.  This is true in any new venture, whether it be golf, bowling, drawing, flying, etc.  Each small success gives birth to greater confidence which in turn brings further successes.  You can then replace a vicious circle of failure with a confident circle of success.  It is so EASY to want the lottery ticket or the home run every time at bat but HARD to accept when the numbers do not add up or when all the preparation leads to nothing more than the hard earned single.

7 Ways to Become an Unsuccessful Trader

If you’d prefer to become an unsuccessful trader, you can start by making the following common trading mistakes.

-The first big mistake is the flawed logic of extrapolation. Many traders and investors assume that a trend will remain in force until an “event” comes along to change it. But market trends are not like billiard balls on a pool table. This false assumption will put you on the wrong side of the market more times than not, especially at major turning points.

-The second big mistake is to suppose that news events drive market trends. In fact, the opposite is true: economic, political and social events lag market trends.

-One common mistake is to buy puts or calls that are way “out of the money,” with no other transactions to compliment them. Unless your timing is absolutely perfect — and who has perfect timing? — your chance of success is low. It’s like buying a lottery ticket.

-Another common mistake is to buy options with too little time left to expiration. With less than one month to expiration, the time decay begins to accelerate and the chances of success diminish.

-In the middle of a corrective pattern, it’s common to run out of patience while waiting for confirmation of a trend change. You have to give corrective patterns time to unfold before you jump in. This requires discipline, and a solid understanding of the many ways corrective patterns can unfold.

-Too many traders think Elliott wave is a trading system that tells you exactly where to enter and exit a particular market. That’s the biggest misconception. The reality is that it’s an analytical and forecasting tool, which helps you develop and use your own trading system, based on your own personal risk tolerance.

-Traders tend to over-rely on momentum indicators such as RSI, Stochastics and MACD to precisely spot turning points. But to paraphrase Mark Twain, markets can stay overbought or oversold a lot longer than either you or I can remain solvent.