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Archives of “benefit” tag
rss13 Risk Perception Factors
Trust - Risk vs Benefit
- Control
- Choice
- Is the risk natural or human made ?
- Pain and Suffering
- Uncertainty
- Catastrophic or chronic
- Can it happen to me ?
- Is the risk new or familiar
- Risk to children
- Personification
- Fairness
Trust Life Lessons from Trading
In trading, we can all agree that fewer conditions or filters results in better conclusions, better understanding, and less curve fitting. Conditions or filters block information. Too filters can result in less new insight and fewer opportunities. Here is where trading is a good lesson for life. As we grow older our tendency is to filter out information, people, paths. It’s partly a necessity to avoid the bad or overload, but good things can be missed. Our experience tends to specialize our knowledge and narrow our focus. Though this has some benefit in expertise what opportunities or knowledge or growth may be missed. Ignoring, filtering or refusing to hear or listen to ideas we disagree with or that are different than our own may lead to narrow mindedness, missed opportunity to change and important information. For younger people it might be seen as closing doors. Meeting new people, hearing new ideas, going to new places. Nobel laureates advise not to tighten parameters too tightly as the surprise result may reveal itself. I recommend opening up parameters, let the fresh air in. Let’s not become grumpy old men. We’ve seen closed small minded people and don’t look on them with respect. Broad vision is necessary to see above and beyond the noise. You really need to force yourself against the tendency to close the mind. |
Observation and Analysis
“Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumored by many. Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your religious books. Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders. Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations. But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything agrees with reason, and is conducive to the good and benefit of one and all, then accept it and live up to it.”
– Siddhārtha Gautama (Buddha)
A commitment to reason, observation and analysis (of the self-reliant empirical variety) has been a winning trade for thousands of years.
Why don’t more people practice this, in markets and in life?
A Trading Journal Is Like Sex
So why is keeping a trading journal like sex? Well it’s because…
“When it’s good, it’s really really really good!… and when it’s bad, well, it’s better than nothing.”
Now, we’re not just saying this to get some laughs – this is trading, we take trading seriously, and we take the above statement seriously.
There is information out there on keeping a trading journal – but not nearly enough as there should be.
We won’t go on about the merits of keeping a trading journal – it should be obvious how important a journal is to your trading success.
Most people start one but don’t keep it going – which is a tragedy really as you only get the benefit of keeping a trading journal over time.
If you’ve tried and failed to keep a trading journal going; perhaps start again even in a small way, and keep it going through the good days and bad. You will find that not only does it get easier – it becomes a habit when you see how much it helps your trading.
Most importantly – remember that a bad trading journal is still better than no journal at all.
Ed Seykota’s Magic Trading System
1: Do not stress about whipsaws – one good trend pays for them all.
A whipsaw is when you enter a stock, but get stopped out quickly. In a period of whipsaws, this may happen many times. This can be frustrating to a trader or investor, and it may cause them to change their system. But the fact is that one good trend will pay for all of these whipsaws, and if you change your system you lose the benefit of that!
2: When you Catch a Trend, ride it to the end.
Your system must be able to jump on a trending stock (for instance, up if you are going long), but then also be able to ride that trend to the end. Many novice traders will jump out of stocks before they are finished trending because they are scared the market has gone too far. Let your system tell you when the trend is ending, and only exit once it does.
3: When you show a loss, give the loss a toss.
Every single successful money manager ever interviewed has said something along the lines of: “Cut your losses short”. Get rid of your losses. Keep your winners. And once you have your system don’t second guess it! Being stopped out is part of the process.
4: We know if our risk is right when we make a lot of money, but can still sleep at night.
Risk is the amount of risk per trade (the price between your entry and your stop loss), and how much your total risk is (regarding how many positions you have open at one time). (more…)
Ed Seykota’s 6 Rules from the Whipsaw Song
1. Do not be overly concerned about whipsaws a good trend pays for them all.
A whipsaw is when you enter a position but get stopped out quickly when the market reverses opposite to your position. If you are a trend trader this may happen many times in a row in a range bound market. This can be very frustrating to a trader and it may cause them to completely change their method. The fact is that one really good trend will pay for all of these whipsaws as long as you keep your losses small, and if you change your system you lose the benefit of that big trend.
To avoid whipsaw losses, stop trading. -Ed Seykota
2. When you catch a Trend, ride it to the end.
Your system must be able to take a position in a trending market, but then also be able to ride that trend to the end. Most new traders will jump out of trades before they are finished trending because they are scared the market has gone too far and will take back their paper profits. Let a trailing stop take you out of a trade when the trend is over, and only exit once you are stopped out.
“The trend is your friend except at the end where it bends.” -Ed Seykota (more…)