One of my favorite trading tales involves a very wise, veteran trader who, when asked his thoughts on the market, would simply respond by saying “It’s a bull market,” or “It’s a bear market.” Younger traders simply seeking out a hot tip from the seasoned pro would often leave discouraged – or even annoyed, believing they were being fed a line. JL himself didn’t understand until years later the wisdom that was actually being dispensed with those words: The veteran was simply relaying the path of least resistance, or the trend for the general market, and therefore giving the trader an incredible edge in determining one of the many variables that makes up stock trading.
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Traders should equate the general market to that of a big river with individuals stocks as floating logs. If ones objective was to ride in the general direction of the current, they would not stand on the bank looking for a log that was bucking that trend? Furthermore, even if they found one that temporarily headed in the wrong direction, more than likely it would only be a matter of time before the log reversed course and also headed in the way of all the other logs. (more…)
Archives of “bear market” tag
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One of my favorite trading tales involves a very wise, veteran trader who, when asked his thoughts on the market, would simply respond by saying “It’s a bull market,” or “It’s a bear market.” Younger traders simply seeking out a hot tip from the seasoned pro would often leave discouraged – or even annoyed, believing they were being fed a line. JL himself didn’t understand until years later the wisdom that was actually being dispensed with those words: The veteran was simply relaying the path of least resistance, or the trend for the general market, and therefore giving the trader an incredible edge in determining one of the many variables that makes up stock trading.Study Your Mistakes
I have always found it profitable to study my mistakes. Thus I eventually discovered that it was all very well not to lose your bear position in a bear market, but that at all times the tape should be read to determine the propitiousness of the time for operating. If you begin right you will not see your profitable position seriously menaced; and then you will find no trouble in sitting tight.
—-REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR by Edwin LeFevre
Respect the Trend
One of my favorite trading tales involves a very wise, veteran trader who, when asked his thoughts on the market, would simply respond by saying “It’s a bull market,” or “It’s a bear market.” Younger traders simply seeking out a hot tip from the seasoned pro would often leave discouraged – or even annoyed, believing they were being fed a line. JL himself didn’t understand until years later the wisdom that was actually being dispensed with those words: The veteran was simply relaying the path of least resistance, or the trend for the general market, and therefore giving the trader an incredible edge in determining one of the many variables that makes up stock trading.
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Traders should equate the general market to that of a big river with individuals stocks as floating logs. If ones objective was to ride in the general direction of the current, they would not stand on the bank looking for a log that was bucking that trend? Furthermore, even if they found one that temporarily headed in the wrong direction, more than likely it would only be a matter of time before the log reversed course and also headed in the way of all the other logs.
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Traders would be wise to understand there are 3 directions a market can travel; up, down or sideways. As long as we trade stocks, this will be true – and just as valuable as Livermore’s seasoned trading friend’s advice was then it would be today.
Markets, like rivers, don’t change courses overnight – or even in a few days. It often takes many months if not years to properly establish a trend. Simply pull back any weekly chart over the past couple years and assess where the trend is going. If you aren’t quite sure, then more than likely cash remains the place for you.
Understand this basic, yet key, principle of trading, and you will already be well ahead of most.
One of my favorite trading tales involves a very wise, veteran trader who, when asked his thoughts on the market, would simply respond by saying “It’s a bull market,” or “It’s a bear market.” Younger traders simply seeking out a hot tip from the seasoned pro would often leave discouraged – or even annoyed, believing they were being fed a line. JL himself didn’t understand until years later the wisdom that was actually being dispensed with those words: The veteran was simply relaying the path of least resistance, or the trend for the general market, and therefore giving the trader an incredible edge in determining one of the many variables that makes up stock trading.15 Fundamentals To Win Stock Market Battle
Gerald Loeb was a founding partner of E.F. Hutton, a renowned and successful Wall Street trader, and the author of the books The Battle For Investment Survival and The Battle For Stock Market Profits.
Mr. Loeb promoted a contrarian view of the market as too risky to hold stocks for the long term in direct contrast to many of his generation. At the time, many considered Loeb’s comments heresy to the buy and hold doctrine so common among many in the industry. While Loeb never had the opportunity to trade in an environment now ruled by quants, algorithmic trading and massive government intervention, his wisdom and insight is still applicable in today’s environment. After all, the more things change, the more they always stay the same!
Based on his two books, here are 15 fundamentals Loeb argues that you need to understand to win the battle not only against yourself, but also against the market:
- What everyone else knows is not worth knowing.
- Stocks are always way overvalued in a bull market and way undervalued in a bear market.
- The best stocks will always seem overpriced to the majority of investors.
- Expectation, not the news itself, is what moves the market.
- Three basis elements should be considered when evaluating a stock – 1) quality (fundamentals, liquidity, management), 2) price, and 3) trend (the most important).
- Stocks act like human beings and go through the same stages and phases as people do, including infancy, growth, maturity, and decline. The key in trading is to be able to recognize which stage the stock is in and to take advantage of that opportunity.
- Pyramid your buys – start with an initial position and then add to it only if the trade moves in your favor.
- The more experienced and successful you become, the less you should diversify.
- Traders must always resist the urge and temptation to change their strategies for each and every different market cycle.
- To succeed in trading you must 1) aim high, 2) control the risks, 3) be unafraid to keep uninvested reserves and 4) be patient.
- Successful traders are intelligent, they understand human psychology, they practice pure objectivity, and they have natural quickness.
- You must always trade with the actions of the market and not simply by how you might think the market should trade.
- Knowledge through experience is one trait that separates successful stock market speculators from everyone else.
- The stock market is more an art than a science and far more complex than most people understand.
- Always sell when you start patting yourself on the back for being smarter than the market. (more…)
Justin Mamis: ‚When to Sell’ – Inside Strategies For Stock market Profits
Time for another excerpt post taken from “When to sell” from Justin Mamis. Probably my favourite author. Do yourself a favour. Buy all his books and read them. Repeat the process. The best education you can get. This will make you a better trader and will provide you with tremendous insight into how markets work and how to deal with all the psychological aspects of trading.
Justin Mamis: ‚When to Sell’ – Inside Strategies For Stock market Profits
Chapter 2: ‘Right is wrong’ pages 23-24
With experience, and with some grasp of what has consistently affected your judgment in the past, you should be able to determine at which times and under what conditions you function best…and when you should be extra-careful, or even stay away entirely. One important thing every professional knows, or ought to know since it is his business to know, is that he doesn’t have to play the game every single minute of every day. The advent of desktop machines and their ability to present right in your face what is actually happening every single minute of every day – and some with bells and whistles to call your attention to some petty and momentary thing that has just happened – has had its effect, though: the less experienced, the less disciplined, have become increasingly short-term oriented and excitable, more, in fact, akin to what we believed in the past that the public could be criticized for, of playing a game, of having a predilection for continually being in the market in one way or another. “Isn’t there one stock worth buying?” was a common question during the massive 1973-74 bear market, and still is. There is no rule that says you always have to have action; yet that is perhaps the most disastrous of all the common errors we’ve noticed. Rather than continually confronting the market on its own inscrutable terms, stop and ask yourself what you know, whether what you know is enough to act upon, and how you are relating to it. Maybe it is a period when the market’s personality conflicts with yours, or something in your extra-market life is hampering your ability to view stock action objectively, or, simply, perhaps it’s a time when the market’s course isn’t clear to anyone. Then it is best to step aside. You owe it to yourself to find out exactly how ready and able you are to play, because it’s yourself you end up playing against.
Characteristics of Bear Market
- Sellers are in control
- Oversold often stays oversold for a long time
- Markets drop a lot faster than they go up
- Bear markets burn and churn accounts with long only exposure
- Volume and liquidity can dry up but price can still drop significantly
- ‘Cheap’ can get a lot ‘cheaper’
- Hope is slowly destroyed
- Vicious bear market rallies try to suck in traders to trap them
- Expect lots of gaps to the downside
- It takes a long time until market participants throw in the towel
This is appropriate trading behaviour during bear markets:
- Either in cash or short
- Sell the rallies mentality
- Do NOT buy the dips
- Do not even think about going long if you are not an active and experienced trader
3 minutes each day
THE TRADE DECISION
1. Never add to a losing position.
2. Always determine a stop and a profit objective before entering a trade. Place stops based on market information, not your account balance. If a “proper” stop is too expensive, don’t do the trade.
3. Remember the “power of a position.” Never make a market judgment when you have a position.
4. Your decision to exit a trade means you perceive changing circumstances. Don’t suddenly think you can pick a price, exit at the market.
THE MARKET HAS CHARACTER
5. In a Bull market, never sell a dull market, in Bear market, never buy a dull market.. (more…)
50 Trading Rules
1. Plan your trades. Trade your plan.
2. Keep records of your trading results.
3. Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose.
4. Don’t take the market home.
5. Continually set higher trading goals.
6. Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good news.
7. Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low.
8. Successful traders have a well-scheduled planned time for studying the markets.
9. Successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of others.
10. Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, and rational action.
11. Limit your losses – use stops!
12. Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it!
13. Place the stop at the time you make your trade.
14. Never get into the market because you are anxious because of waiting.
15. Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.
16. Losses make the trader studious – not profits. Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action.
17. The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but self-control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the equation for success.
18. Always discipline yourself by following a pre-determined set of rules.
19. Remember that a bear market will give back in one month what a bull market has taken three months to build.
20. Don’t ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if the market moves against you 20% from your peak profit point.
21. You must have a program, you must know your program, and you must follow your program.
22. Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over losses always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be profitable.
23. Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more than 50% of them again in the market.
24. The key to successful trading is knowing yourself and your stress point.
25. The difference between winners and losers isn’t so much native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoiding mistakes.
26. In trading as in fencing there are the quick and the dead.
27. Speech may be silver but silence is golden. Traders with the golden touch do not talk about their success.
28. Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set goals too high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day long.
29. Accept failure as a step towards victory.
30. Have you taken a loss? Forget it quickly. Have you taken a profit? Forget it even quicker! Don’t let ego and greed inhibit clear thinking and hard work. (more…)
Not A One Way Train
Words of wisdom from Dave Landry’s new book, The Layman’s Guide To Trading Stocks:
Wall Street Myth 1: The market always goes up longer term
It seems to be universally preached that the market “always goes up longer term.” And, all you have to do is buy a diversified mutual fund or index fund and wait. The problem is that markets do not always go up longer term. Well, I suppose it all depends on what you mean by longer term.
Suppose you bought stocks in 1929 at the market peak. Provided you could have held through a 90% loss, it would then have taken you a quarter of a century just to get back to breakeven.
Let’s say you bought stocks in the mid-1960’s. Your return would have been almost zero until the market finally broke out in 1983, which was 17 years later.
When I began this chapter, I was concerned that there might be a “that was then, this is now” mentality. After all, the benchmark S&P 500 wasn’t far below breakeven from the 2000 peak. I thought I was going to have to make a strong case for not buying and holding. Unfortunately for the buy and hold crowd, the market made my case for me. The bear market that began in late 2007 would turn out to be the worst since 1929. By March 2009, the S&P was at 13-year lows. From these lows, the market will have to rally over 200 percent just to get to breakeven.
At more than one cocktail party, I have had people laugh in my face when I tell them that the market can go 25 years or more without going up. This has made for some heated discussions and awkward social situations. I have since learned from Dale Carnegie and my wife Marcy to just nod my head and enjoy my drink. Do not take my word for it, just look at the charts and grab me a Black and Tan while you are at it!
Ten Times When A Trader Should do Nothing
Ten Times When A Trader Should do Nothing
- When you are confused and don’t know what to do, do nothing.
- There are no set ups on your watch list, then don’t trade.
- You are a trend trader and there is no trend to trade.
- The market is extremely volatile due to headline risk.
- You want to make an option trade but the options are illiquid with a huge bid ask spread.
- If you are trying to trade supply and demand but the government keeps interfering with your market, pick a different market.
- Your stock reports earnings the next day and you expect a powerful move but it could easily go either way, wait until after earnings to trade.
- You are a momentum trader but their is not momentum, then wait.
- You play the long side only and the market is in a correction or a bear market, wait for a new trend to the upside.
- If you are not at your best mentally and emotionally then don’t trade until you are.