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Bank of Japan quarterly Tankan report

  
  Analysis
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The BOJ’s Tanki Keizai Kansoku Chousa (Tankan) reports on the Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan

Full report can be found from the Bank of Japan website here.
Headlines via Reuters:

 

  •  September big manufacturers index +18(Reuters poll: 13)
  • December big manufacturers index seen at +14(Reuters poll: 15)
  • September big non-manufacturers index +2(Reuters poll: 0)
  • December big non-manufacturers index seen at +3(Reuters poll: 5)
  • September small manufacturers index -3(Reuters poll: -9)
  • December small manufacturers index seen at -4(Reuters poll: -6)
  • September small non-manufacturers index -10(Reuters poll: -11)
  • December small non-manufacturers index seen at -13(Reuters poll: -9)
  • Japan all firms see dollar averaging 107.64 yen for fy2021/22
  • Japan all firms see euro averaging 126.50 yen for fy2021/22
  • Japan big manufacturers see dollar averaging 106.72 yen for fy2021/22
  • September all firms employment index -17
  • September all firms financial condition index +11 vs june +11
  • September big manufacturers’ production capacity index +1 vs june +1
  • Japan big manufacturers see fy2021/22 recurring profits +12.7%
  • Japan big firms see fy2021/22 capex +10.1% (Reuters poll: 9.1%)
  • Japan small firms see fy2021/22 capex +4.7% (Reuters poll: 1.6%)
  • BOJ September tankan corporate price expectations survey: Japan firms expect consumer prices to rise 0.7% a year from now vs +0.6% in prev survey
  • Japan firms expect consumer prices to rise an annual 1% 3 years from now vs +0.9% in prev survey
  • Japan firms expect consumer prices to rise an annual 1.1% 5 years from now vs +1.1% in prev survey

BOJ March monetary policy meeting minutes – full text

  
  Analysis
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Bank of Japan Minutes not shedding too much further light on policy deliberations

Headlines via Reuters:

 

  • members agreed YCC exerting intended policy effect
  • some members said review confirmed some fluctuations in bond yields won’t diminish impact of monetary easing
  • some members said must scrutinise financial system developments due to accumulating side-effects of easing on banking system
  • members agreed BOJ must respond flexibly, effectively without hesitation to changes in economic, price and financial developments
  • a few members said appropriate to stress anew that excessive falls in super-long bond yields could hurt economy in long run

 

 

The full text is here if you wish

 

Bank of Japan Minutes not shedding too much further light on policy deliberations

Bank of Japan policy review announcement due today – preview

  
  Analysis
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There is no time scheduled for the announcement, after 0230GMT is a good bet. The Bank will be keen to ensure what it changes is not perceived as a reduction in policy support, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will likely emphasise this, and also that the Bank stands ready to do more if needed, at his news conference that will follow at 0630 GMT.
The much-awaited BOJ review of its monetary policy is aimed at making its programme of support sustainable for longer.

Bank of Japan refuses trader requests to work from home

  
  Analysis
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Bloomberg had this piece up earlier (link for more), citing ‘people familiar:

  • The BOJ doesn’t allow home computers to connect to its network for conducting asset purchases and other market transactions
  • Three firms (at least) have asked the BOJ whether traders can participate in its operations from outside the office
  • BOJ-Net infrastructure is used for yen transactions daily, connected via dedicated cables to computers at dozens of financial firms so they can trade assets with the central bank or buy bonds from the government
  • BOJ is concerned about cybersecurity risk.
The hot new toy for summer probably won’t be keenly sought after amongst BOJ counterparties:
Bloomberg had this piece up earlier (link for more), citing 'people familiar:

BOJ’s Kuroda: Economic activity has gradually resumed

  
Analysis, Economy
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BOJ governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, begins his press conference

Kuroda
  • But Japanese economy remains in an extremely severe siituation
  • Pace of recovery to only be moderate
  • Inflation is likely to be negative for the time being
  • Future economic developments remain extremely unclear
  • Risks are tilted to the downside for prices, economic growth
  • BOJ won’t hesitate to ease further if needed
  • Will continue to support corporate financing, markets
Kuroda is still maintaining a more subdued take on the economic situation but that is hardly a surprise. The recent economic data from Japan have been rather poor and a possible virus resurgence only adds to more risks surrounding the outlook.
But Kuroda stands firm in assuring that the BOJ policies since March are having an impact, though I’m sure they pretty much lucked out on this one with the Fed and ECB doing most of the heavy lifting to appease financial risks in the market for the most part.

BOJ calls for unscheduled monetary policy meeting on 22 May

  
  Analysis
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BOJ to hold an unscheduled monetary policy meeting this week

The meeting will take place at 0000 GMT on 22 May (this Friday). The BOJ says that the meeting is to discuss new measures to provide funds to financial institutions, following up on instructions by governor Kuroda from the 27 April meeting.

Their next policy meeting was supposed to be on 16 June but Kuroda had already hinted that they were looking to do something like this before that meeting here.
So, this is merely to follow up on that as they will introduce a funding scheme to aid the financial system and inject more liquidity. But the sudden call here isn’t going to be all too comforting and it’ll prompt questions on if there are any banks in trouble.

BOJ announce no change to monetary policy settings, as expected

  
Analysis, Economy
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Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting for January 2020 has concluded

As expected, policy unchanged:
  • keeps monetary policy steady
  • maintains short-term interest rate target at -0.1%
  • maintains 10-year JGB yield target around 0%
  • maintains forward guidance on interest rates, says they will remain at current or lower levels for as long as needed to guard against risk momentum for hitting price goal may be lost
I’ll have more on this separately

Reuters Tankan – Japan manufacturers sentiment index -6 (unchanged from December)

  
Analysis, Economy
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The monthly Reuters Tankan is more timely than the quarterly report of the same name from the BOJ.

  • January manufacturers’ sentiment index comes in at -6 (unchanged from Dec)
  • Service-sector index +14 in January vs. flat vs Dec
  •  Manufacturers’ mood seen up ahead, service sector down
Pessimism amongst Japanese manufacturers persisted in January, usual suspects cited:
  • China-U.S. trade tension
  • sluggish global demand
Looking ahead though,  some believed conditions will improve in the next few months
  • seen to 0 in April
Service-sector outlook sees 13 in April (slight fall)

BOJ minutes: Downside risks to overseas economies remained signficant

  
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Minutes of the Bank of Japan October 2019 monetary policy meeting.

  • most members shared view that there had been no further increase in the possibility that the momentum toward achieving the price stability target would be lost
  • most members shared view downside risks to overseas economies remained significant, must continue to pay close attention to chance inflation momentum would be lost
  • one member said given downside risks, BOJ should continue to examine whether additional monetary easing would be necessary
  • some members said BOJ must not hesitate to take additional easing measures if there was a greater possibility momentum toward achieving the price target would be lost
  •  important to enhance cooperation with government on economic policies

Headlines via Reuters

BOJ quarterly Tankan report out now – manufacturing mood worsens

  
Analysis, Economy
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Bank of Japan survey is of manufacturing and service companies designed to assess business conditions in Japan

The main Q4 results:
Large Manufacturing Index: 0
  • est 4, prev 5
Large Non-Manufacturing Index 20, improving!
  • est 16, prev 21
Large Manufacturing Outlook 0
  • est 3, prev 2
Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook 18
  • est 16, prev 15
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