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Amidst the gloom – Italian hospital saves Covid-19 patients lives by 3D printing valves

  
  Analysis
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No, not forex, but some human ingenuity, creativity and hard work in application:

  • massive number of people who require intensive care and oxygenation in order to live through the infection long enough for their antibodies to fight it. This means that the only way to save lives at this point – beyond prevention – is to have as many working reanimation machines as possible.
  • a Northern Italian hospital needed a replacement valve for a reanimation device and the supplier had run out with no way to get more in a short time.
  • a company in the area, Isinnova, brought a 3D printer directly to the hospital and, in just a few hours, redesigned and then produced the missing piece
  • On the evening of Saturday 14th (the next day) Massimo reported that “the system works”
  •  At the time of writing, 10 patients are accompanied in breathing by a machine that uses a 3D printed valve. 
What great news amidst the crisis.
No, not forex, but some human ingenuity, creativity and hard work in application:

Late rally takes some of the sting away from the sharp declines today

  
Analysis, US Market
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Rate cut hopes into the weekend helps erase some of the declines on the day.

A late rally has taken some of the sting away from the sharp decline today in US stocks. The Dow industrial average was down close to 894 points an hour before the close. The index is still down around -250 points but well off those low levels.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index -51.46 points or -1.7% at 2972.46. The index was down over -4% at its lows. So the late day rally erased a lot of those declines.
  • The NASDAQ index is closing down -1.87% or 162.97 points at 8576.61. The low for the day reached 8375.13. The high reached 8612.359. At the low, the index was down -4.16%
  • The Dow industrial average is closing down -255.69 points or -0.98% at 25865.59. The low price reached 25226.62. The high price extended to 25994.38. At the session low the Dow was down -894 points or -3.43%.
Rate cut hopes into the weekend helps erase some of the declines on the day.

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G7 says ready to take action, including fiscal tools, where needed

  
  Analysis
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The US Treasury releases the G7 statement on its website

The full statement:

Yeah, not a whole lot in there to really reassure the market that there is going to be a firm commitment for coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Meanwhile, Japan’s finance minister says that the policy response to the virus will vary from country to country. I guess that pretty much says that not everyone is going to be taking immediate action at this stage – not like the BOJ has much of a choice anyway.

Dow closes up over 5% on the day

  
Analysis, US Market
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Major indices close at session highs.

The Dow had the biggest point gain ever, and in the process moved higher by over 5% on the day. The S&P index broke a 7 day decline and rose 4.61%. The NASDAQ index was a laggard with only a 4.5% gain.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index up 136.27 points or 4.61% at 3090.47. The S&P index closed above its 200 hour moving average at  3048.38. Now the price is above that moving average the next target would be the 100 day moving average at 3168.69
  • The NASDAQ index is ending the day up 384.797 points at 8952.16. That is a gain of of 4.49%. Technically, the price moved above its 100 day moving average at 8828.31. Its 50 day moving average looms ahead at 9245.93.
  • The Dow industrial average is closing up 1293.9 points or 5.09% at 26703.26.  Although the gain was the biggest point gain on record, the index still remains below its 200 day moving average at 27241.99.
Some of the bigger gains include:
  • Tesla, +11.46%
  • Costco, +9.95%
  • Apple, +8.85%
  • Gilead, +8.69%
  • Twitter, +7.92%
  • Walmart, +7.59%
  • UnitedHealth, +7.04%
  • Microsoft, +6.67%
  • Citigroup, +6.56%
  • Travelers, +6.56%
  • Merck, +6.3%
  • Amgen, +6.28%
  • Target, +5.9%
  • Intuit, +5.87%
  • Verizon, +5.82%
  • MasterCard, +5.73%
  • Visa, +5.53%
  • Home Depot, +5.45%

Losers on the day include:

  • Lyft, -3.12%
  • Square, -3.10%
  • First Solar, -1.92%
  • Chewy, -1.83%
  • Deutsche Bank, -1.3%
  • Alcoa, -1.15%
  • Daimler, -1.09%
  • FedEx, -0.75%
  • Chipotle, -0.71%
  • Papa Johns, -0.5%
  • United Airlines, -0.47%

OPEC reportedly discussing additional output cut of up to 1 mil bpd now

  
  Analysis
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Reuters reports, citing OPEC sources on the matter

OPEC

This is similar to the story reported by the FT earlier today here. It is said that several OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, are leaning towards a deeper oil output cut because of the coronavirus outbreak.

Yeah, I’m not sure if Russia is going to get on board with that. In any case, Saudi Arabia is likely going to have to do the bulk of the heavy lifting here to push this through.
Even then, I’m not sure if it would be enough to turn sentiment around in the oil market as the virus outbreak continues to be more widespread across the globe.

Exante – COVID-19 is in the early stages of a pandemic, China numbers not believable

  
  Analysis
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Exante Data is a New York based macro advisory & data analytics firm to funds, central banks, corporates and banks

  • there is a near unanimity of opinion that COVID-19 is in the early stages of a pandemic
  • even the unprecedented public health interventions we are seeing worldwide will be stymied by the atypical transmissibility characteristics of the virus
  • Indonesia’s zero is mathematically implausible
  • The metronomic decline of cases reported across China’s provinces also tests the limits of credulity.
Their advice is not comforting:
  • Our principal message to clients has been that if COVID-19 is not effectively contained by May, the underlying empirical premises upon which risk management systems have been designed and deployed over the past thirty years will necessarily fail.
  • COVID will be beyond the sample available, and cascade through global supply chains and the financial system in ways that no one can credibly predict. This is not to mention the societal and political upheaval entailed.
Bolding mine.
corcoronavirus black swan

The coronavirus will be a pandemic, here are 8 things to do

  
Analysis, Education
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Here is a piece from CNN on “Covid-19 will become a pandemic” and “we must do eight things “.

Some of the 8 seem pretty ****ing obvious, eg 4. Improve medical care and prevention of Covid-19.
Well, yeah, OK. Here is the link for the other 7.
#9 is to cut down on sugar, diabetes is gonna kill way more folks than this infection (my 2c)

Should you sell a currency if there is a virus breakout there?

  
  Analysis
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What’s the pandemic trade

What's the pandemic trade
Sooner or later, there will be another country with a coronavirus breakout. Right now authorities are scrambling in South Korea, Iran and Italy.
Given that it started in China, two of those three countries were not at all where you would have expected it to land next. Scarier is that Indonesia — which is a top destination for Chinese travelers — still has zero confirmed cases. US diplomats are increasingly critical of the testing and preparations in the country.
So what if the next big outbreak is in Indonesia? Or what if it’s Australia? Or Canada?
If that happens, I expect the market to sell those currencies. Market reactions are imperfect and that’s an understandable response.
At the same time, there is a certain point where the market comes to realize that the virus is unstoppable. I don’t know if that is 5 countries or 25.
What will matter first is how quickly the case count rises. If it rises 100x like it has in Italy this week, that’s a clear sign of local transmission but the market will react more-quickly and the news comes in dribs-and-drabs.
So you can’t sell on the first case and it’s always tough to get immediate details of where people had recently visited. So it’s a situation where you have to wait for the numbers to rise, but how many cases do you need? There’s no easy answer.
A lot of trades play out like that around the virus because the information is so sketchy. If you told me there was a breakout in Indonesia, I’d sell the rupiah but the reality is that the information is lumpy.
I’d argue that it’s a better idea to focus on the global impacts and reactions than try to pin it down place-by-place.

US Major indices down hard again (For us nothing new ………..as expected )

  
Analysis, US Market
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Dow and S&P down over 3%. 4th day of declines in a row

The US stocks are closing down sharply for the 2nd day in a row . The Dow and S&P  have the worst 2 day decline since February 2018. The Dow has plunged more than 1900 points in 2 days.  The Nasdaq index also moved into and closed in the red for the year (below a 8972.60).
The final numbers are showing
  • The S&P index fell 97.68 points or -3.03% at 3128.21. The high reached 3246.99. The low extended to 3118.77
  • The Nasdaq index fell -255.66 points or -2.77% at 8965.61. It’s high reached 9315.25. The low extended to 8940.488
  • The Dow fell 879.44 points or -3.15% at 27081.36. The high reached 28149.20. The low extended to 26997.62.
After the close, Disney announced that is the CEO Bob Iger would be stepping down.  He will be replaced by Bob Chapek effective immediately.

Major indices close lower. Indices also lower for the week

  
Analysis, US Market
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All-time highs were made but Thursday and Friday selling take the gains away

The major stock indices are ending the day lower with the NASDAQ falling by -1.79%. In a week where the NASDAQ and S&P index made new all-time highs, selling on Thursday and Friday have taken those gains away. The major indices are ending the week lower.

The final numbers are showing:
  • Dow industrial average -227.30 points or -0.78% at 28992.68
  • S&P index -35.55 points or -1.05% at 3337.68
  • NASDAQ index -174.38 points or -1.79% at 9576.59.
For the week, the Dow industrial average was the weakest followed closely by the NASDAQ index:
  • Dow industrial average, -1.46%
  • S&P index, -1.07%
  • Nasdaq index -1.39%
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