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Exante – COVID-19 is in the early stages of a pandemic, China numbers not believable

  
  Analysis
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Exante Data is a New York based macro advisory & data analytics firm to funds, central banks, corporates and banks

  • there is a near unanimity of opinion that COVID-19 is in the early stages of a pandemic
  • even the unprecedented public health interventions we are seeing worldwide will be stymied by the atypical transmissibility characteristics of the virus
  • Indonesia’s zero is mathematically implausible
  • The metronomic decline of cases reported across China’s provinces also tests the limits of credulity.
Their advice is not comforting:
  • Our principal message to clients has been that if COVID-19 is not effectively contained by May, the underlying empirical premises upon which risk management systems have been designed and deployed over the past thirty years will necessarily fail.
  • COVID will be beyond the sample available, and cascade through global supply chains and the financial system in ways that no one can credibly predict. This is not to mention the societal and political upheaval entailed.
Bolding mine.
corcoronavirus black swan

An Ironic Trick for Trading Better

  
  Education
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Everyone knows what they /SHOULD/ do… and everyone has trouble doing it. Why? Lots of reasons –

Market ambiguity compels you to make impulsive judgments … . Not enough sleep… . I can go on and on and on… and talk to you about your emotional architectures and using emotion analytics to better manage your risk as well as better deduce opportunity.

But here is a little “emotion analytics” trick –

Ask yourself – as you are contemplating entering or exiting a position “How will I feel if…. ?” … and then play out the scenarios, #1) the trade continues in my direction, #2) it pulls back and takes away some of my money, #3) it ….

By putting yourself into your potential future emotional contexts, you can make better “risk” judgments in the here and now.

(And oh yes, I know to some of you this sounds absurd…that is OK. Everyone that I have taught to do it, makes more money than when they just tried to use so-called discipline to intellectually overpower their desires to get in or out or… in and out … or ….)