Exante – COVID-19 is in the early stages of a pandemic, China numbers not believable

Exante Data is a New York based macro advisory & data analytics firm to funds, central banks, corporates and banks

  • there is a near unanimity of opinion that COVID-19 is in the early stages of a pandemic
  • even the unprecedented public health interventions we are seeing worldwide will be stymied by the atypical transmissibility characteristics of the virus
  • Indonesia’s zero is mathematically implausible
  • The metronomic decline of cases reported across China’s provinces also tests the limits of credulity.
Their advice is not comforting:
  • Our principal message to clients has been that if COVID-19 is not effectively contained by May, the underlying empirical premises upon which risk management systems have been designed and deployed over the past thirty years will necessarily fail.
  • COVID will be beyond the sample available, and cascade through global supply chains and the financial system in ways that no one can credibly predict. This is not to mention the societal and political upheaval entailed.
Bolding mine.
corcoronavirus black swan
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