1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time
2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction
3. There are no new eras — excesses are never permanent
4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways
5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom
6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve
7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names
8. Bear markets have three stages — sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend
9. When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen
10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.
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rssHow Does Buffett Make So Much Money? Not How You Think!
Excerpt:
Berkshire Hathaway has realized a Sharpe ratio of 0.76, higher than any other stock or mutual fund with a history of more than 30 years, and Berkshire has a significant alpha to traditional risk factors. However, we find that the alpha becomes insignificant when controlling for exposures to Betting-Against-Beta and Quality-Minus-Junk factors. Further, we estimate that Buffett’s leverage is about 1.6-to-1 on average. Buffett’s returns appear to be neither luck nor magic, but, rather, reward for the use of leverage combined with a focus on cheap, safe, quality stocks. Decomposing Berkshires’ portfolio into ownership in publicly traded stocks versus wholly-owned private companies, we find that the former performs the best, suggesting that Buffett’s returns are more due to stock selection than to his effect on management. These results have broad implications for market efficiency and the implementability of academic factors.
Buffett’s record is remarkable in many ways, but just how spectacular has the performance of Berkshire Hathaway been compared to other stocks or mutual funds? Looking at all U.S. stocks from 1926 to 2011 that have been traded for more than 30 years, we find that Berkshire Hathaway has the highest Sharpe ratio among all. Similarly, Buffett has a higher Sharpe ratio than all U.S. mutual funds that have been around for more than 30 years.
We document how Buffett’s performance is outstanding as the best among all stocks and mutual funds that have existed for at least 30 years. Nevertheless, his Sharpe ratio of 0.76 might be lower than many investors imagine. While optimistic asset managers often claim to be able to achieve Sharpe ratios above 1 or 2, long-term investors might do well by setting a realistic performance goal and bracing themselves for the tough periods that even Buffett has experienced.
In essence, we find that the secret to Buffett’s success is his preference for cheap, safe, high-quality stocks combined with his consistent use of leverage to magnify returns while surviving the inevitable large absolute and relative drawdowns this entails. Indeed, we find that stocks with the characteristics favored by Buffett have done well in general, that Buffett applies about 1.6-to-1 leverage financed partly using insurance float with a low financing rate, and that leveraging safe stocks can largely explain Buffett’s performance.
Source: Andrea Frazzini, David Kabiller and Lasse H. Pedersen, “Buffett’s Alpha.”
The more sure you are that your trade is a winner the more dangerous it becomes with position sizing
Old saying that market goes up 2/3rd of the time no longer accurate. Since start of '80 bear, S&P 500 up 82% of time.
13th and 26th Week major turning ,5566 is Laxman Rekha
-From High of 6336 ,Already completed 118 weeks
-From low of 2228 ,Already completed 76 weeks.
26th week is very crucial.
13th week is also turning point.
Yes ,On 26th Week :Nifty Future will complete 144 weeks from high of 6336
And on 13th week will complete 89 weeks from low of 2228 level.
My Ultimate target and Laxman Rekha is at 5566 level.
Last week NF created History by closing up for 9 consecutive weeks.
-So will it continue for another 4 weeks ?
-Next Fibonacci number is 13.
I will update more to our Subscribers.
Updated at 16:36/11th April/Baroda
"Failure is only an opportunity to begin again more intelligently." — Henry Ford
Jugaad
Frustration & Regret in Trading
FRUSTRATION: “Your success as a trader at times hinges on your ability to conquer frustration. Frustration will always appear on the path toward greatness. Some will triumph over it, while others succumb to its pettiness. When you encounter obstacles on your trail toward achievement, remind yourself that they were placed there in order for you to overcome them, so you can learn from them and become better than you were before”
Predicting rain doesn't make money.
Characteristics Of A Losing Trader
1. Undisciplined
2. No money management
3. Unprepared
4. Over trading
5. Easily tilted
6. Does not trade with probabilities
7. Trades emotionally without controlling: greed, hope, fear, and euphoria
8. Does not have a trading plan and strategy